This November, COP22 will be held in Marrakech. Yes, we realise it seems like COP21 only just finished – yet holding COP in Morocco is a great opportunity for discussing climate issues in the wider Arab region.
So what issues should those of us working on food security and nutrition in MENA be raising?
We suggest the biggest single issue is to widen regional debates from their current focus on climate impacts on food production. Yes, higher temperatures, drying, and more severe droughts across MENA will affect food production. These concerns have Ministries of Agriculture from Morocco to Iran developing strategies for agricultural adaptation and reducing impacts on rural livelihoods.
But let’s put potential climate impacts on MENA’s agricultural production in a broader context. To highlight just four points:
• Climate change might reduce yields of some crops in MENA by around 20% by mid-century, but, more significantly, populations – and food demand – could double
•By 2050, MENA’s towns and cities will have twice the population of rural areas, drastically reshaping patterns and modes of food consumption (Figure 1)
•Realistically, MENA’s already high reliance on food imports will increase.
•Poverty, high food prices, and conflict are the main drivers of household food insecurity in MENA, not food production.
Figure 1: Population projections for MENA countries
So resilient agricultural production is important – not least because it generates jobs and exports. Yet issues of resilient food access - chiefly the ability to pay for food - will be at least as significant. This is a key message of our recent report from the World Food Programme and the Overseas Development Institute.
So how will climate impacts affect the ability to pay for food, and what can be done about that? Poor farmers, clearly, are at risk. For them, harvest failures mean no food, and no money to buy food. Poor households and wage-earners in other sectors will be at risk from volatile food prices, the impacts of heat extremes on their ability to work and earn an income (Figure 2), and indirect climate impacts on employment opportunities because of climate stresses on the wider economy.
Figure 2. More frequent heat extremes will be an early and noticeable impact of climate change
Carefully targeted support, such as short-term cash transfer programmes, can help vulnerable people overcome climate shocks to their incomes and food prices. Yet social protection programmes in MENA are often costly, poorly targeted, and needing reform. Flexible systems that expand coverage during shocks, improve coverage of exposed people and under-served areas, and target better those most in need would be more effective, increase resilience, and reduce costs for government.
Governments can help protect their citizens from the impacts of a more variable climate and volatile world on food prices. Better use of early-warning systems, monitoring of global harvests, and improved management of strategic food and cash reserves for meeting emergency needs would be a good start. This is particularly true for countries with negative fiscal balances, which already find it difficult to absorb global food price shocks.
Increasing national and household resilience to the effects of climate shocks on income and food prices is crucial. Other climate risks to food supply and consumption also need attention. Heat waves and droughts are likely to increase water stress, make water supply more difficult, and increase risks to health from food spoilage and water-borne diseases, impairing nutrition security. Improving access to health care, clean water and sanitation – particularly in rapidly growing informal settlements – would help reduce climate risks to nutrition security. Similarly, upgrading food supply chains, in food storage, distribution and retail, can help reduce post-harvest losses and mitigate climate risks to food safety.
Food security specialists already focus on these issues, yet a climate lens offers new perspectives. Thinking about climate risks identifies ways in which government services, the private sector, and the economy in general can be more effective, sustainable, and resilient to shocks. Climate change is also creating an imperative to adapt, and could stimulate positive reform of food systems and food security.
It is striking how much attention is given to agriculture in the national climate strategies of MENA countries and how little is given to food security and nutrition. Having COP22 hosted in an Arab and MENA county is a great opportunity to re-frame the production-dominated regional discourse on food security, and sharpen the focus on issues of access, utilization, and stability.
