Publications

Egypt’s Haya Karima Initiative: An assessment of its rural and economywide impacts

Egypt’s Haya Karima (HK) Initiative aims at improving the quality of life in the country’s rural communities through interventions related to human development, infrastructure, and economic sectors. This presidential initiative, whose name translates to “Decent Life” in English, has four strategic goals, all targeting Egypt’s rural population: building human capital, improving quality of life, improving the standard of living for the most vulnerable, and providing decent and productive job opportunities. The initiative is aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the objectives of Egypt Vision 2030. HK aims to not only curb material poverty but also multidimensional poverty by expanding the umbrella of comprehensive social protection, with a focus on education, health, infrastructure, and employment. It also focuses on achieving the goal of geographical equity by addressing regional disparities that affect rural areas such as Upper Egypt. Here, we describe a recently completed study that assesses the economywide effects of the first phase of HK. The analysis was done by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), in collaboration with Egypt’s Ministry of Economic Planning and Development (MPED) under the project Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity (EIBC), funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).

Unlocking the power of partnership to address Yemen’s food crisis and strengthen food system resilience

Key Messages
• Yemen is experiencing one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises resulting from prolonged conflict, with about half the population suffering from food insecurity.
• Food availability and affordability in Yemen is extremely vulnerable to external shocks because of the fragility of the national food system and its heavy dependence on food imports by the private sector and international humanitarian agencies.
• A recent workshop jointly organized by IFPRI and HSA Group reviewed the state of collaboration between key actors in Yemen’s food system and discussed avenues to building strong cross-sector partnerships for ending the current food crisis and strengthening food system resilience.
• Limited collaboration among the public, private, and third sectors (for example, in the form of collective action, multistakeholder partnerships) contributes to inefficiencies in food supply chains and food aid delivery.
• Currently, collaborations are often ad hoc, limited to peer-to-peer partnerships, and constrained by a siloed mentality.
• With a potential peace agreement, new opportunities for cross sector collaboration and strategic partnerships between food system actors are emerging.
• Enhanced communication among the public, private, and third sectors is an important first step toward improving mutual understanding, building trust, exchanging critical information and ideas, and realizing opportunities for effective collective action.

Monitoring indicators of economic activity in Sudan amidst ongoing conflict using satellite data

The confrontation in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) had persisted for months before escalating into an armed conflict on April 15th, 2023. Besides the severe humanitarian catastrophe, the war has disrupted access to power, water, health services, and banking services while also disrupting access to markets triggering considerable scarcity of goods and services. The conflict has destroyed key infrastructure, constraining domestic and international trade and disrupting production activities and supply chains. In this paper, we utilize satellite data to provide a swift analysis of how the conflict has changed patterns of economic activity, which are bound to have severe implications on food security in Sudan. We also describe how remote sensing and data collection methods can be deployed to monitor economic activities amidst armed conflicts.

Smallholder farmers’ participation in profitable value chains and contract farming : Evidence from irrigated agriculture in Egypt

Key messages The participation of smallholder farmers in high-value and profitable value chains as well as contract farming remains low in Africa.  Farmers with limited land resources are more likely to devote a larger share of their land to low-value crops such as cereals while this pattern weakens with increasing land size and slightly reverses for high-value crops such as spices and herbs.  Smallholders in Egypt face a trade-off between ensuring food security to their house holds and maximizing profit, and land plays a major factor in moderating this trade-off.  Younger and wealthier farmers are more likely to participate in the cultivation of high value crops such as spices and herbs as well as contract farming.  There exist strong complementarities between participation in high-value value chains and contract farming.

Smallholder farmers’ participation in profitable value chains and contract farming: Evidence from irrigated agriculture in Egypt

The participation of smallholder farmers in high-value and profitable value chains as well as contract farming remains low in Africa. This paper aims to identify observable and unobservable constraints that explain joint participation in profitable value chains and contract farming. We use a multivariate probit model to estimate potential complementarities between the cultivation of these various value chains (vegetables, fruits, spices, herbs, and cereals), and participation in contract farming. We identify several important observable factors that reinforce and hence limit smallholders’ participation in both low and highvalue chains as well as contract farming. For example, we find suggestive evidence that mallholders in Egypt face a trade-off between ensuring food security to their households and maximizing profit, and land plays a major factor in moderating this trade-off. We find that farmers with limited land resources are more likely to devote a larger share of their land to low-value crops such as cereals while this pattern weakens with increasing land size and slightly reverses for high-value crops such as spices and herbs. This suggests until some level of land resources, food security goals may dominate profit motives while this reverses after ensuring that food security goals are achieved. Younger and wealthier farmers are more likely to participate in the cultivation of high-value crops such as spices and herbs as well as contract farming. We also document strong complementarities between participation in high-value value chains and contract farming. Particularly, farmers who cultivate high-value crops are more likely to be engaged in contract farming. Intuitively, this implies that addressing smallholders’ binding constraints, including risk and access to land, can encourage participation in profitable value chains and contract farming. Our findings offer suggestive evidence that may serve in targeting smallholders to join profitable value chains in Egypt and other comparable contexts.

Impact evaluation report: Egypt’s Takaful Cash Transfer Program: Second round report

Egypt introduced the Takaful and Karama Program (TKP), a pair of targeted cash transfer schemes in 2015. In 2018, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) completed the first round of impact evaluation of TKP, based on household survey data collected after the first 15 months of the program. In the period between the first-round evaluation and the data collection for this report in January 2022, Egypt faced an enormous economic shock in the COVID-19 pandemic with a complete loss of tourism, which before the crisis was responsible for 12% of GDP and 10% of employment (IMF, 2021). A follow-up evaluation was designed to assess whether impacts estimated from the first round have been sustained and whether longer duration of treatment has led to impacts on additional outcome variables. This follow-up impact evaluation was conducted using a regression discontinuity (RD) design similar to the first round but using a different sample of households much more tightly concentrated around the 4500 thresholds to address concerns about the smaller discontinuity. We find that households invested in assets, particularly productive assets and Takaful households reduced their debt burdens. There were no measurable impacts of the Takaful program on household consumption or poverty, which may be partially explained by changes in household demographics. We also find that Takaful improved school enrollment and attendance and contributed to household’s ability to cope with shocks.

Egypt: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on poverty and food security

Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have witnessed rapid and significant increase in recent months, driven largely by the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and associated sanctions im-posed on Russia. Other factors, including governments’ responses and export bans, have also con-tributed to rising prices (Laborde and Mamun 2022). Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022, with most of the in-crease occurring since February 2022.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis: Implications for global and regional food security and potential policy responses

This paper analyzes the implications of the Russian-Ukraine crisis on global and regional food security. We start with a global vulnerability analysis to identify most vulnerable regions and countries. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is particularly vulnerable to trade shocks because of its high food import dependence. Thus, we provide descriptive evidence characterizing how food systems and policies impact vulnerability to the price shock in selected MENA countries: Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen. Within these countries, we show that the crisis will differentially impact poor and non-poor households as well as rural and urban households. Although the absolute level of food insecurity may still be higher in rural areas where larger numbers of poor households are located, urban poor are likely to suffer most because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and associated hikes in food prices, especially in those countries where social protection and food subsidies are missing. On the policy side, we review lessons from previous food crises and identify actions needed to take (and to avoid) to protect most vulnerable countries and households in the short-term while also highlighting long-term policy options to diversify food, fertilizer and energy production and trade.

Forsa pilot program and evaluation plan [in Arabic]

Forsa, which means “Opportunity” in Arabic, is a new economic inclusion program of the government of the Arab Republic of Egypt. Implemented by the Ministry of Social Solidarity, the program aims to graduate beneficiaries of the national cash transfer program, the Takaful & Karama Program (TKP), from being dependent on transfers from TKP to economic self-reliance by enabling them to engage in wage employment or sustainable economic enterprises. The most recent World Bank Economic Inclusion report (Andrews et al. 2021) highlights a recent increase globally in such graduation or economic inclusion programs, which now reach around 92 million beneficiaries from 20 million households across more than 75 countries. This rapid growth is raising demand for evidence on best practices in graduation program implementation. Egypt’s experience with Forsa can contribute to such guidance.

Forsa pilot program and evaluation plan

Forsa, which means “Opportunity” in Arabic, is a new economic inclusion program of the government of the Arab Republic of Egypt. Implemented by the Ministry of Social Solidarity, the program aims to graduate beneficiaries of the national cash transfer program, the Takaful & Karama Program (TKP), from being dependent on transfers from TKP to economic self-reliance by enabling them to engage in wage employment or sustainable economic enterprises. The most recent World Bank Economic Inclusion report (Andrews et al. 2021) highlights a recent increase globally in such graduation or economic inclusion programs, which now reach around 92 million beneficiaries from 20 million households across more than 75 countries. This rapid growth is raising demand for evidence on best practices in graduation program implementation. Egypt’s experience with Forsa can contribute to such guidance.

Transforming African agricultural markets through digital innovations: What we (do not) know

This policy note synthesizes the key messages and lessons from existing evidence and trends in the development, deployment and scale up of ICT-enabled marketing tools. It is based on the recently published discussion paper titled “Digital tools and agricultural market transformation in Africa: Why are they not at scale yet, and what will it take to get there”. Key messages • Many digital innovations have been developed and deployed in recent years in Africa, many of which have only been implemented at pilot stages, with limited evidence of successful scaling. • There remains significant marketing and institutional constraints hindering the development of some of these digital innovations, which may further explain disparate progress in countries. • Differential access to digital innovations across genders and different typologies of households may trigger alternative variants of digital divide. • Although the landscape of digital innovations in Africa offers several reasons to remain optimistic, the prevailing disconnect between pilots and scale-ups merits further evaluation.

Remote sensing data for monitoring agricultural production and economic activity: Application in Egypt

This policy note showcases two examples on how remote sensing data can be used for monitoring agricultural production and economic activities. The first case aims to generate granular data on agricultural production, which remain scarce in Egypt and the MENA region. The second case demonstrates the potential of remote sensing data to monitor economic activities during the COVID19 pandemic. Based on these data and together with other recent findings, we provide the following recommendations to facilitate post-COVID-19 recovery in Egypt: ► Targeting of stimulus and recovery packages based on the economic repercussions experienced across geographies and sectors ► Identifying and supporting promising value chains which experienced a significant slowdown in economic activities ► Diversifying economic activities and markets to improve the resilience of agri-food systems. ► Investment in data infrastructure to monitor and respond to future shocks. This may be supported by scale up of digital solutions, which proved to be effective in sustaining business activities even during the pandemic.

Investing in dates, poultry, olive, and medicinal and aromatic plants value chains in Egypt: Assessing the economy-wide impacts

This policy note summarizes an evaluation of public investment options for Egypt’s agri-food system conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation of the Government of Egypt and Cairo University. We quantitatively assess the expected economy-wide impacts of investing in four promising agricultural value-chains: dates, poultry, olives, and medicinal and aromatic plants (MAP). As part of the analysis, a range of agriculture-related public investments along the value-chains are considered, including spending to expand farm production and promotion of downstream agri-processing and marketing. We use two IFPRI structural models. The Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide model is used to capture linkages between economic sectors, households, and rural-urban economies and to measure changes in economic growth, household welfare, and employment within and beyond the agri-food system. RIAPA is linked to the Agricultural Investment and Data Analysis (AIDA), the second model, which tracks investment impacts and costs over time. Inter alia, we find that: Investments into each of the four agricultural value chains enhance growth, create additional employment opportunities, improve household welfare, and reduce poverty. The MAP and poultry value chains are the most promising value chains with regard to all four evaluation criteria. However growth generation is largest if investment is concentrated in the MAP value chain, while investment into the poultry value chain has the strongest impacts on job creation and poverty reduction. Investments into primary production and processing, besides having a strong direct impact on the value chain growth, generate significant indirect effects inside and outside the agrifood system. These indirect effects are largest for the MAP value chain.

Cluster-based development in Egypt: A study of external shocks to the leather and medicinal and aromatic plant sectors

The Egyptian government has prioritized the idea of cluster-based development-that is, the geographic concentration of specialized firms, such as in this case, those producing similar or related products. The establishment of such clusters, however, presents significant challenges, bottlenecks, and obstacles. Based on primary field work, this paper focuses on two case studies of the impacts of shocks on business clusters. The first study involved the relocation of an established leather cluster from Cairo to a newly created industrial park, Robbiki Leather City, which was promoted by Egypt’s Ministry of Trade and Industry. Although the relocation partly solved the existing issues of water contamination, new challenges emerged relating to increased production and transportation costs, and unforeseen impacts on the community. The second study assessed the short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a business cluster producing medicinal and aromatic plants. Overall the MAPs sector was resilient to the outbreak and there are opportunities to offset any negative impacts of the pandemic by taking advantage of new markets for Egyptian MAPs stemming from supply disruptions in other countries; increased global demand for MAPs due to their pharmacological and health properties; and increased international demand for organically grown MAPs. Findings indicate that it is essential for governments to develop responses to the challenges-and especially barriers-to the development of business clusters, while simultaneously supporting and creating incentives for the cooperation, entrepreneurship, and collective action needed for business clusters to thrive and grow. As anticipated, challenges and obstacles-whether overarching or in response to shocks-are unique to specific sectors, contexts, and times, and hence need to be dealt with as an ongoing facilitation process.

A study of Tunisia’s leather and date sectors

Based on field visits, structured interviews, and reviews of the literature and secondary data, we examine major challenges facing the leather and date clusters in Tunisia. The challenges vary greatly between the clusters. The leather and footwear industry faces a decline in external demand. After the global economic crisis in the late 2000s and the Arab Spring in the early 2010s, the sector lost international competitiveness. To revitalize the sector, policies should be designed to expand markets for leather and footwear. Exploring trade agreement with the US, leveling the tariff rate for intermediate goods and shoes, attracting foreign direct investment, and improving leather quality are among potential options. Implementing these policies will require coordination among different government agencies and private sector stakeholders. Besides demand challenges, lack of water treatment also is a major challenge facing tanneries across Tunisia. The international demand for Tunisian dates has been very strong. Most of the major challenges are on the supply side, such as value chain coordination, inadequate water supply, labor shortages, diseases, lack of new varieties, and limited value addition. The supply-side options include diversifying varieties and expanding into date derivative and palm waste products, promoting labor-saving mechanization and water-saving irrigation technologies, and improving coordination along the value chain.

Climate-resilience policies and investments for Egypt’s agriculture sector: Sustaining productivity and food security

The importance of a resilient agriculture sector in providing food security, livelihoods, and household income was highlighted in many countries by the recent pandemic, as was the capacity of the sector to cushion the negative impacts of the subsequent economic slowdown. This has been the case in Egypt, where agriculture has been resilient to the health crisis in comparison with the service and industry sectors (Breisinger et al. 2020). However, the sector’s resiliency is gradually being corroded by climate change, with lasting, harmful effects for agriculture and food systems.

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A 2019 Nexus Social Accounting Matrix for Egypt

The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) is pleased to present an updated social accounting matrix (SAM) for Egypt. This SAM combines information from national datasets from many institutions, including the Central Bank, the Ministries of Finance and Agriculture, and various statistical bureaus. It also makes extensive use of data from the Economic Survey and Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIECS), which is produced by CAPMAS. With this data it becomes possible to provide a detailed update of the socioeconomic status of Egypt. The SAM also allows for more timely analysis of developmental issues and a better understanding the potential economic impacts of changes. The SAM is the main dataset used for economywide modelling of scenarios and simulations. Such modeling has proven to be a powerful evidence-based analytical tool for informing making and for assessing the impact of different interventions, especially during the COVID-19 crisis.

Supporting Egypt’s safety net programs for better nutrition and food security, inclusiveness, and effectiveness

The long partnership between the Government of Egypt and the International Food Research Institute (IFPRI) began in the late 1970s but became much more active with the launch of IFPRI’s Egypt Strategy Support Program (ESSP) in 2016. Over the years, IFPRI’s research, with support from PIM since 2012, has informed important decisions on Egypt’s key safety net programs, including the food subsidy and the national cash transfer programs. This summarizes some of the most recent outcomes of this work.

Food subsidies and cash transfers in Egypt: Evaluating general equilibrium benefits and trade-offs

Most Egyptians receive food subsidies, which are the cornerstone of the country’s social protection system. The government recently attempted to reduce subsidies, with limited success, and introduced a cash transfer program targeting the poor. We use a dynamic general equilibrium model of the Egyptian economy to evaluate the growth and distributional impacts of subsidy reforms and cash transfers. We find that the welfare of poor households would be enhanced by a smaller, but better targeted food subsidy program, and that, if the cost savings from reforms are channeled into investment, faster economic growth would eventually outweigh any short-term welfare losses. However, most of the gains from subsidy reforms accrue to nonpoor households. Combining subsidy reforms with cash transfers leads to the largest welfare gains for the poor, while leaving the welfare of nonpoor households largely intact. The latter is crucial to maintaining support for ongoing subsidy reform efforts.

Impact of COVID-19 on Egypt’s dairy and artichoke value-chains: Qualitative findings from rapid value chain assessments

The COVID-19 crisis is having strong impacts on the Egyptian economy, but these impacts differ strongly across sectors.1 Based on scenarios run using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier model of Egypt’s economy, COVID-19 is estimated to have resulted in an 8.6 percent decline in Egypt’s GDP during the 4th quarter of FY 2019/20 (April to June). The services sector was hit hardest, falling by 10.9 percent, followed by industry, which contracted by 8.3 percent. Agriculture was the most resilient sector, although there are large differences in the relative impact of COVID across agricultural subsectors.

Regional developments [in 2021 Global Food Policy Report]

As the coronavirus pandemic reached every corner of the world in 2020, countries responded rapidly with an array of policies to stop the spread of the highly contagious disease, and then with social and economic policies to protect food security, incomes, and livelihoods. This experience brought attention to weaknesses in health, economic, and social protection systems. But it also showcased new innovations, approaches, and the surprising resilience of food systems. The diverse experiences of the world’s major regions have important lessons for creating sustainable, equitable, efficient, healthy, and resilient food systems. The impact of COVID-19 on food systems, wellbeing, and future transformation is examined for each major region.

Climate change and Egypt’s agriculture

With climate change, Egypt’s already arid climate will face even higher temperatures and lower rainfall over key agricultural areas, requiring further urgent adaptation investments. Data from three general circulation models of climate were used to better understand the likely effects of climate changes on Egypt’s agricultural sector. The findings show largely adverse biophysical effects of climate change by 2050. Compared to a no-climate change scenario, yields for food crops are projected to decline by over 10 percent by 2050 due to higher temperatures and water stress as well as increased salinity of irrigation water. The highest biophysical yield declines are estimated for maize, sugar crops, and fruits and vegetables. Moreover, due to the country’s dependence on food imports, Egypt is not only affected by climate change impacts at home, but also by impacts in other food producing countries. Climate change-induced increases in food prices will reduce Egypt’s food import demand, while also dampening demand for Egypt’s exports. The implications for Egypt are tighter food markets with both reduced domestic production and increased difficulties to import food making it more difficult to augment domestic food supplies. This situation suggests the need for investments in climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector. Global cooperation to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions is also warranted given the high cost to Egypt’s society from adverse climate change impacts worldwide.

Climate change adaptation strategies for Egypt’s agricultural sector: A ‘suite of technologies’ approach

Climate change negatively affects Egypt’s agriculture sector. This brief summarizes the results of a modeling exercise to examine a range of climate change adaptation approaches to counteract agricultural productivity declines. Rather than simulating a single technology, a ‘suite of technologies’ approach was used. For several food crops, none of the technology suites, individually or in combination, are shown to counteract the adverse impacts of climate change. For these crops, which include maize, oilseeds, pulses, and sugar, even stacking of technologies will not return productivity to pre-climate change levels. However, for fruits and vegetables, potatoes, rice, and wheat, crops less adversely affected by climate change, increased investments in climate changeresponsive crop traits, soil fertility improvement, water management, crop protection, or a combination of these technologies can counteract the adverse impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity. From a perspective, strong cooperation with the rest of the world on climate change adaptation will ultimately benefit Egyptian consumers. Doing so will reduce disruption of global food markets, which is of particular importance for countries, like Egypt, that are well integrated into those markets. In particular, Egypt’s economy and all Egyptian consumers benefit from the importation of lower-value, high water-consuming cereals under the hotter and drier conditions that can be expected in Egypt in the future due to climate change.

Land scarcity and input intensification in smallholder irrigated agriculture in Egypt

Increasing population pressure and population density in many African countries are inducing land scarcity and land constraints. These are expected to trigger various responses and adaptation strategies, including agricultural intensification induced by land scarcity, as postulated by the Boserup hypothesis. However, most empirical evaluations of the hypothesis come from rainfed agriculture and mostly from sub-Saharan Africa, where application of agricultural inputs remains historically low. Agricultural intensification practices and the relevance of the Boserup hypothesis in irrigated agriculture (and where application of improved inputs is high) remains unexplored. We investigate the implication of land scarcity on agricultural intensification and the relevance of the Boserup hypothesis in the context of Egypt, where agriculture is dominated by irrigation and input application rates are much higher than elsewhere in Africa. We find that land scarcity increases overapplication of nitrogen fertilizer relative to crop-specific agronomic recommendations. This implies that land constraints remain as important challenges for sustainable agricultural intensification. Finally, we find suggestive evidence that such overapplication of nitrogen fertilizers is not yield-enhancing, but, rather, yield-reducing. We also document that land scarcity impedes mechanization of agriculture.

Agricultural Investment Data Analysis (AIDA)

The Agricultural Investment Data Analysis (AIDA) tool is embedded in IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Analysis (RIAPA) modeling system. The integrated AIDA-RIAPA framework is used to analyze the economywide impacts of investments in the agri-food system (AFS) and help inform the design and prioritization of policies and investments given their impacts on development outcomes, such as economic growth, job creation, poverty reduction, or dietary improvements. Whereas AIDA is used to translate new investments in, say, irrigation, extension, or rural roads into changes in productivity, a recursive-dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, which sits at the core of the RIAPA system, measures the direct and indirect (spillover) effects of those investments on the rest of the economy. For example, investments in extension not only increase farm productivity of those receiving extension visits, but also create new jobs and income opportunities in downstream nonagricultural sectors, such as food processing, trading, and transport. This has welfare implications for households and individuals, which are analyzed using a series of microsimulation add-on modules also embedded in RIAPA.

New Social Accounting Matrix for Jordan: A 2015 Nexus project Social Accounting Matrix

This new Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Jordan is a snapshot representation of the Jordanian economy in which productive activities, factors of production, and economic transactions between the main agents, including households, government, and the rest of the world, are illustrated in a circular flow. It has been constructed using IFPRI's Nexus format, which uses common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. This new SAM for Jordan is expected to be an important dataset for the Arab (Agricultural) Investment for Development Analyzer (AIDA), which is tool based on computable general equilibrium (CGE) model analyses. AIDA was developed to inform national and regional development strategies by providing evidence on the impact of agricultural investments on economic development.

Impact of COVID-19 on the Yemeni economy: How the drop in remittances affected economic sectors, food systems, and households

There has been an unprecedented decline in the flow of remittances to Yemen – a vital source of money for millions – as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier model of Yemen’s economy was used to estimate the impact of lower remittances on economic sectors and employment, food systems, and household incomes.

Land scarcity impedes sustainable input intensification in smallholder irrigated agriculture: Evidence from Egypt

Increasing population pressure and population density in many African countries are inducing land scarcity and land constraints. These increasing land constraints are expected to trigger various responses and adaptation strategies, including agricultural intensification induced by land scarcity, as postulated by the Boserup hypothesis. However, most empirical evaluations of the Boserup hypothesis come from rainfed agriculture and mostly from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where application of improved agricultural inputs remains historically low. Agricultural intensification practices as well as the relevance of the Boserup hypothesis in irrigated agriculture and in contexts where application of improved inputs is high remains unexplored. Furthermore, while much of the debate on the topic in Africa has focused on how to boost agricultural intensification, there is scant evidence on whether evolving agricultural intensification practices in some parts of Africa are sustainable, yield-enhancing, and optimal. In this paper we investigate the implication of land scarcity on agricultural intensification and the relevance of the Boserup hypothesis in the context of Egypt, where agriculture is dominated by irrigation and input application rates are much higher than SSA. We also examine whether evolving agricultural intensification practices induced by land scarcity are agronomically appropriate and yield-enhancing. We find that land scarcity induces higher application of agricultural inputs, mainly nitrogen fertilizers, sometimes beyond the level that is agronomically recommended. More importantly, land scarcity increases overapplication of nitrogen fertilizer relative to crop-specific agronomic recommendations. This implies that land constraints remain as important challenges for sustainable agricultural intensification. Finally, we find suggestive evidence that such overapplication of nitrogen fertilizers is not yield-enhancing, but, rather, yield-reducing. We also document that land scarcity impedes mechanization of agriculture. Our findings have important implications to inform appropriate farm management and sustainable intensification practices. Furthermore, our results can inform long-term responses to land scarcity.

Food policies and their implications on overweight and obesity trends in selected countries in the Near East and North Africa region

Regional and global trends in body weight show that the Near East and North Africa (NENA) region countries, especially the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member countries, have the highest average body mass index and highest rates of overweight and obesity in the world. There exist several explanations that expound the high rates of overweight and obesity in most NENA countries, including the nutrition transition, urbanization, changes in lifestyle, and consequent reduction of physical activities. This study examines the implication of food policies, mainly trade and government food subsidies, on evolving nutritional transitions and associated body weight outcomes. We examine the evolution of trade (food) policies, food systems, and body weight outcomes across selected countries in the NENA region – Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq. In particular, we investigate the implications of important trade (food) policies in shaping diets and food systems as well as their implications on public health outcomes, mainly the rising levels of overweight and obesity in the NENA region. We provide a simple conceptual framework through which trade policies (tariff rates) and domestic government food policies (subsidies) may affect food systems and nutritional outcomes. An important and innovative feature of this study is that it compiles several macro- and micro-level datasets that allow both macro and micro-level analyses of the evolution of trade (food) policies and associated obesity trends. This approach helps to at least partly overcome the data scarcity that complicates rigorous policy research in the NENA region.

MAP Egypt

MAP Egypt is a monitoring tool that keeps track of agricultural development projects and the subnational socioeconomic context in Egypt. The ultimate goal of the tool is to improve agricultural project planning, coordination and effectiveness. Specifically, MAP Egypt helps the Government, development partners, researchers and other interested parties to gain a quick overview of the state of agriculture in Egypt at the aggregate and the project level. The tool has been developed for and with the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation (MoALR) by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as part of the “Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity” (EIBC) project, funded by United States Agency for International Development (USAID). In order to effectively allocate funds, build synergies and evaluate future proposals, users can visualize and monitor the status and progress of agricultural projects categorized by sector, location, donor or common objectives, as well as track projects’ key performance indicators. To contextualize projects and evaluate which governorates require further assistance, users can also quickly map, zoom and chart a wide range of socioeconomic indicators, at subnational levels, on food and nutrition security, poverty and development across Egypt, with a focus on Egypt’s Sustainable Development Strategy 2030 (SDS 2030 Pillars) the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and Other Socioeconomic Indicators.

Symposium policy note 1: Enabling farmers to lead food system transformation and resilience in Egypt

Agricultural and food policies will play an important role in making Egypt’s food system fit for future challenges, including resilience to shocks, such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This brief highlights the importance of enabling farmers so that they can contribute significantly to a broader transformation and to resilience of Egypt’s food system and rural economy. Five areas of action are highlighted: Invest in a renewed system of agricultural extension services, with an emphasis on new technologies and production systems and on nontraditional crops. Ease rigidities for farmers and increase the market orientation of the agriculture sector, including markets for fertilizer and staple crops. Revisit the current irrigation management system to allow for the adoption of new irrigation technologies and increased efficiency of water usage. Support the development of agro-processing value chains where there are missing markets or market frictions in order to achieve a sustainable and nutrition-sensitive food system. Coordinate agricultural policy with policies of other government ministries to support rural transformation and employment opportunities off the farm.

COVID-19 and the Egyptian economy: From reopening to recovery: Alternative pathways and impacts on sectors, jobs, and households

Although the global economy is forecasted to shrink by 4.4 percent in 2020 (IMF 2020), the Egyptian economy is proving resilient to the immense human and financial costs caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic. This resilience is mainly explained by the successful implementation of the economic reform program since 2016 that provided more fiscal space to withstand the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis. However, that Egypt’s economy is holding up is also due to the rapid response and proactive measures to limit the impact of the virus that were implemented by the Egyptian Government since March 2020 (MPED 2020). These enabled the country to avoid a full lockdown policy (Figure 1). While Egypt posted negative economic growth rates from April to June 2020 at the height of the crisis, overall economic growth was still positive at 3.6 percent for fiscal year (FY) 2019/20. This estimate is only slightly lower than the initial projection of the impact of the pandemic on Egypt’s economy of an annual economic growth equal to 3.8 percent, as estimated by staff of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development (MPED) (Breisinger et al. 2020). The deviation between the early and final estimate can be mainly explained by the lower than expected growth rates in the manufacturing and health services sectors and the better than expected performance of the trade and transport sectors. A joint note by the International Food Policy Research Institute and the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development of the Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt.

Symposium policy note 4: Moving nutrition further up the development priority list in Egypt

This policy note is one in a series of four notes that summarize key findings and recommendations from 32 seminars organized by IFPRI between 2016 and 2020 under the Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity Project funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and from related research done in collaboration with national and international partners in Egypt. The briefs have been prepared on the basis of a joint symposium and are intended to give policymakers and program designers in the areas of social protection, nutrition, agricultural policy, and the digitalization of agriculture a quick overview of research-based recommendations on key policy issues that will better enable Egypt to achieve several of the goals outlined in the Sustainable Development Strategy 2030. Addressing all forms of malnutrition – both undernutrition and overnutrition – remains a human and economic development challenge that Egypt must overcome. This brief highlights three areas of action to significantly improve the nutritional status of all Egyptians: Make domestic food policies more nutrition-sensitive and incentivize food producers and marketers to shift to the production, processing, and marketing of healthier foods. Expand ongoing awareness and educational campaigns, such as the 100 Million Healthy Lives initiative, to promote improved nutrition and to disseminate nutrition knowledge. The COVID-19 pandemic is an additional reminder and rationale for investing in healthy diets and sustainable food systems. Promote research to make nutrition policy more effective and efficient, including by increasing collection of nutrition-related data and better sharing of already collected data among ministries, research institutes, and other stakeholders.

Symposium policy note 2: Digitalization of agricultural services and policy analysis in Egypt

This policy note is one in a series of four notes that summarize key findings and recommendations from 32 seminars organized by IFPRI between 2016 and 2020 under the Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity Project funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and from related research done in collaboration with national and international partners in Egypt. The briefs have been prepared on the basis of a joint symposium and are intended to give policymakers and program designers in the areas of social protection, nutrition, agricultural policy, and the digitalization of agriculture a quick overview of research-based recommendations on key policy issues that will better enable Egypt to achieve several of the goals outlined in the Sustainable Development Strategy 2030. This policy note highlights how digital tools can help improve monitoring, evaluation, and extension services in Egypt’s agriculture sector and how policy analysis can be institutionalized to guide transformation of the food system and rural economies. Four recommendations are discussed: Building on ongoing efforts, continue to digitize agricultural information systems, build and link agricultural databases, and exploit new sources of data. Build on ongoing projects that develop mobile telephone applications for farmers and learn from international experiences to revitalize and digitalize agricultural extension in Egypt. Build the capacity of agricultural policy analysts within the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation and universities, using both conventional and new digital tools to provide high-quality, research-based policy advice. Promote further digitalization to improve the resilience of food systems in view of shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of COVID-19 on the Jordanian economy: Economic sectors, food systems, and households

Economic growth in Jordan potentially will come to a halt this year. This comes as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Government imposed an economic lockdown which restricted non-essential economic activities and people’s movement in order to contain the virus. A SAM multiplier model was used to estimate the economic impact of the lockdown and to explore potential recovery pathways for the Jordanian economy. Some of the key findings from this modeling exercise are: • National GDP is estimated to have fallen by 23 percent during the lockdown period. The services sector was hardest hit, seeing an estimated drop in output of almost 30 percent. • Food systems in Jordan are estimated to have experienced a reduction in output by almost 40 percent. • Employment losses during the lockdown were estimated at over 20 percent, mainly driven by job losses in services, followed by agriculture. • Household income fell on average by around one-fifth due to the lockdown, mainly driven by contraction in service sector activities, by slowdown in manufacturing activity, and by lower remittances from abroad. • GDP growth rates for Jordan’s economy will continue to be negative through 2020, ranging from -5.7 to -7.4 percent, depending on the speed of economic recovery. A slow pace of recovery is expected. This economic recovery offers opportunities for fostering sustainable economic transformation and structural change. Economic policies and incentives should be directed towards more economic diversification, greater resilience to withstand economic shocks, and job creation.

Symposium policy note 3: Cash transfers as an effective tool for social protection and shock response in Egypt

This policy note is one in a series of four notes that summarizes key findings and recommendations from 32 seminars that IFPRI organized between 2016 and 2020 under the Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity Project funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and from related research done in collaboration with national and international partners in Egypt. The briefs have been prepared on the basis of a joint symposium and are intended to give policy makers and program designers in the areas of social protection, nutrition, agricultural policy, and the digitalization of agriculture a quick overview of research-based recommendations on key policy issues that will better enable Egypt achieve several of the goals outlined in the Sustainable Development Strategy 2030. Social protection programs are essential for supporting Egyptians who are economically the most vulnerable. This brief makes the argument for moving more decisively toward a cash-based social protection system in Egypt. Four areas of action are highlighted: Continue the well-functioning Takaful and Karama program and consider increasing its budget to adjust transfers to inflation. Consider improving the targeting for Tamween food subsidies and integrating Takaful and Karama with Tamween. Continue the use of transparent and independent impact evaluations to assess social protection programs in order to maximize their benefits for Egypt and its people. Maintain the ability to respond flexibly to future shocks as an important feature of solidifying the national social protection system.

Economic impact of COVID-19 on tourism and remittances: Insights from Egypt

Using the SAM multiplier model for Egypt, we simulate the individual and combined effects of a collapse in the tourism sector and reductions in Suez Canal revenues and in foreign remittances under more and less pessimistic scenarios. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to measuring short-term direct and indirect impacts of unanticipated, rapid-onset demand- or supply-side economic shocks such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We model the demand shocks as the anticipated reductions in tourism, Suez Canal, and remittances revenues.

Winners and losers from COVID-19: Evidence from Google search data for Egypt

Evolving pieces of evidence show that services are hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, both globally and in Egypt. Employing Google search data, we examine the implications of COVID-19 on demand for various services in Egypt. • We find that demand for those services that require face-to-face interaction, including hotels and restaurants, air travel and tourism services, significantly dipped after Egypt detected the first COVID-19 case and more so after the Egyptian government introduced major restrictions and curfews. For instance, in the first two months of the outbreak of the pandemic, February and March, demand for hotel and restaurant services contracted by about 70 percent. • In contrast, demand for services that substitute or reduce personal interactions, such as information and communications technologies (ICT) and delivery services, have enjoyed a significant boost. Demand for ICT services tripled, while demand for delivery services doubled in the four months since the outbreak of the pandemic. • Intuitively, these results suggest that individuals and enterprises operating in these sectors are expected to experience heterogenous impacts and damages associated with the pandemic. Our results, along with other evolving evidence, reinforce that those services and sectors negatively affected by the outbreak and spread of COVID-19 deserve attention. • Finally, our analysis highlights the potential of near real-time "big data" to substitute and complement conventional data sources to estimate economic impacts and, hence, inform immediate and medium-term policy responses.

Investing in the agri-food system for post-COVID-19 recovery: An economywide evaluation of public investments in Egypt

This note presents the results of an evaluation of public investment options for Egypt’s agri-food system. Nine agriculture-related public investments are considered, including targeting public spending to expand farm production, e.g., irrigation improvements, input subsidies, agricultural research, and extension, and to promote downstream agro-processing and marketing. The outcome indicators considered are economic (GDP) growth, incomes of the poor, job creation, and dietary diversity. IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide model is used for the evaluation because it captures linkages between sectors, households, and rural-urban economies and measures changes within and beyond the agri-food system. RIAPA is linked to the Agricultural Investment and Data Analysis (AIDA) module that tracks investment impacts and costs over time. The ranked results of the public investment options considered, summarized in the table here, can help prioritize agri-food system investments for post-COVID-19 recovery.

Nutritional training in a humanitarian context: Evidence from a cluster randomized trial

Behavioural change communication interventions have been shown to be effective at improving infant and young child nutrition knowledge and practices. However, evidence in humanitarian response contexts is scarce. Using data on secondary outcomes of breastfeeding, water treatment, and knowledge from a cluster randomized control trial of the Yemen Cash for Nutrition programme's impact on child nutritional status, this paper shows that the programme significantly improved knowledge and practices for poor women with young children in the pilot districts. The intervention consisted of cash transfers and monthly group nutrition education sessions led by locally recruited community health volunteers. Data are based on self‐reports by participants. Estimating impacts among all 1,945 women in 190 clusters randomly assigned to treatment versus control and controlling for baseline levels and community characteristic and adjusting for noncompliance with randomization, the programme increased the probability of breastfeeding initiation within the first hour after delivery by 15.6% points (p < .05; control = 74.4% and treatment = 83.6%), the probability of exclusive breastfeeding during the first 6 months by 14.4% points (control = 13.5% and treatment = 25.3%), the probability of households treating water consumed by adults by 16.7% points (p < .01; control = 13.9% and treatment = 23.4%), and treating water consumed by children under two by 10.3% points (p < .10; control = 31.2% and treatment = 37.9%). Impacts on knowledge and breastfeeding are similar for both literate and illiterate women, and water treatment impacts are significantly larger for literate women. This study was registered at 3ie (RIDIE‐STUDY‐ID‐5b4eff881b29a) and funded by the Nordic Trust Fund and Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research programme on Policies, Institutions, and Markets.

Model-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen

Evidence-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction is often constrained by missing data and the shortcomings of conventional analytical methods. To overcome these constraints, we use economy-wide modeling methods to model the impact of war and reconstruction possibilities for the economy of Yemen. We first calibrate the model to pre-conflict data (2014) and validate it by replicating the most recent available dynamic needs assessments for Yemen that were elaborated by the World Bank. We then report model scenario results for unobserved development indicators, such as estimates for sector-level growth, employment, and poverty. For the post-conflict period, we use the assumptions of a recent dynamic needs assessment and assume gradual reconstruction of the war-induced damages by the target year 2024. Then we focus on uncertain institutional factors and investigate their importance for the country’s socio-economic development. Finally, we assess the potential structural characteristics of Yemen’s economy in the year 2024 and analyze potential risks and trade-offs associated with government’s institutional performance and the implications these have for the pace of post-conflict reconstruction.

Impact of COVID-19 on the Egyptian economy: Economic sectors, jobs, and households

The COVID-19 crisis may lead to a 1.1 percent decline in Egypt’s GDP during the 4th quarter (April to June) of the 2019/20 fiscal year, compared to the same quarter in 2018/19. Without the Government of Egypt’s COVID-19 emergency response package, GDP in Q4 may have declined by 8.7 percent. Tak-ing the emergency response pack-age into account, we estimate an annual growth rate of 3.8 percent for FY 2019/20. Without the emer-gency response package, annual growth for FY 2019/20 may have been as low as 1.9 percent. The services sector is hit hardest, falling by 10.9 percent, followed by industry at -8.3 percent. Agriculture is the most resilient sector. However, these losses are lower than those expected in comparable countries, especially those that resorted to extended periods of full lockdowns. Impacts on Egypt’s agri-food system are less severe than elsewhere in the economy. Most damage will occur in nonfarm components of the agri-food system due to falling consumer demand. Although higher-income households face the largest income losses, lower-income households also will see their incomes decline significantly. The level of social protection required to fully offset the income losses of poor households is likely to be prohibitive, especially given falling revenues from reduced economic activity. Continuing to gradually open the economy again will be critical for avoiding permanent job losses and increases in poverty for the coming year. The process of re-opening the economy may also provide opportunities for fostering more private sector-driven and sustainable economic transformation.

The impact of COVID-19 on Tunisia’s economy, agri-food system, and households

The COVID-19 crisis is expected to lead to a 46.4 percent decline in Tunisia’s GDP during the 2nd quarter of 2020 (April to June). The industrial sector will be hit hardest, with output falling by 52.7 percent, followed closely by services (-49.0 percent) and agriculture (-16.2 percent). These high losses are a result of the complete lockdown imposed in the country to contain the pandemic. Higher-income urban households will see the largest income losses, although lower-income urban households also will experience significant reductions in their income. As a policy response, social transfers towards poorer households will reduce the adverse welfare impact of these drops in household income. Government policies to support struggling businesses will allow economic activities to revive more rapidly when the lockdown loosens. Consequently, comprehensive planning by the Government of Tunisia to re-open the economy will be critical to reduce the pandemic’s adverse impact on the country’s economy in the longer-term, reducing losses of employment and income, especially in manufacturing and retail.

COVID-19 and the Egyptian economy: Estimating the impacts of expected reductions in tourism, Suez Canal revenues, and remittances

Egypt’s recent economic success will almost certainly be interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the likely impact on the Egyptian economy of a significant reduction in tourism, payments received from the Suez Canal, and remittances from Egyptians working abroad because of the slowdown in the global economy due to the COVID-19 virus. Our results suggest that COVID-19 could reduce national GDP by between 0.7 and 0.8 percent (EGP 36 to 41 billion) for each month that the global crisis continues. Similarly, household consumption and expenditure is estimated to decline on average by between EGP 153 and EGP 180 per person per month, which is between 9.0 and 10.6 percent of average household income. The cumulative loss in GDP from these three external shocks alone could amount to between 2.1 and 4.8 percent of annual GDP in 2020 if the crisis lasts for 3 to 6 months. While the country’s focus currently is rightly on fighting the health crisis and mitigating its immediate impacts, planning on how to re-open the economy should also start now.

Regional developments [in 2020 Global Food Policy Report]

BUILDING INCLUSIVE FOOD SYSTEMS TO HELP REACH THE GOAL OF ENDING HUNGER and malnutrition globally will require innovation and investment at the regional and country levels. This section discusses problems, policies, and prospects for regional and national food systems in 2020 and beyond across the major regions: Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Central Asia, South Asia, East and Southeast Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. The challenges and potential of inclusion to transform food systems for better well-being and nutrition are examined for each region, along with other current topics

Food policies and obesity in low and middle income countries

Understanding the public health implication of fiscal policies is crucial to combat recently increasing overweight and obesity rates in many low-and-middle income countries (LMICs). This study examines the implication of food policies, mainly tariff rates on “unhealthy” foods, including sugar and confectionery products as well as fats and oils, and governments’ subsidies on individuals’ body weight outcomes. We compile several macro- and micro-level datasets that provide for several LMICs macro-level information on food policies and micro-level anthropometric data. We exploit temporal dynamics in tariff rates on “unhealthy” foods and governments’ spending on subsidies to estimate fixed effects models characterizing the evolution of body weight outcomes. We find that temporal dynamics in tariff rates on unhealthy and energy-dense foods are significantly and negatively associated with body weight. Conditional on several observable and time-invariant unobservable factors, a decrease in tariff rates on sugar and confectionary foods or fats and oils is associated with an increase in overweight and obesity rates. On the other hand, an increase in subsidy rates, as a share of government expenditure, is significantly associated with higher overweight and obesity rates. Interestingly, we find that the implications of these food policies are more pronounced among poorer individuals. This is intuitive because relatively poorer households are more likely to spend a larger share of their income on food consumption or unhealthy foods, and these types of households are beneficiaries of government subsidies in many LMICs. These findings have important implications for informing public health policies in LMICs, which are experiencing an unprecedented rise in overweight and obesity rates.

Too much of a good thing? Evidence that fertilizer subsidies lead to overapplication in Egypt

As part of a national policy to ensure a certain level of food self-sufficiency in strategic crops, the government of Egypt subsidizes nitrogen fertilizer directly by distributing quotas of subsidized fertilizers to farmers and indirectly by subsidizing natural gas used by local fertilizer factories. The implication of this subsidy on farmers’ fertilizer demand and productivity remains unknown. Using a detailed agricultural survey collected from smallholder farmers in Upper Egypt, we show that nitrogen fertilizer application rates are substantially in excess of crop-specific agronomic recommendations. We exploit eligibility criteria and other sources of variation to show that farm plots with easier access to the subsidy tend to use more subsidized nitrogen fertilizer and less phosphate fertilizer. Easier access to the subsidy increases use of total nitrogen fertilizer per unit of land, mainly because of the increase in subsidized nitrogen fertilizer. In particular, the fertilizer subsidy program in Egypt is associated with significant overapplication of nitrogen fertilizer. Such overapplication of fertilizer is expected to adversely affect soil, water, and environmental health. Our findings have important policy implications for Egypt and other African countries known for input subsidy programs. As Egypt is currently moving on from the successful implementation of a comprehensive macroeconomic reform program towards sector-level reforms, our results suggest that eliminating fertilizer subsidies is a good place to start.

2015 regionalized social accounting matrix for Tunisia: A nexus project SAM

A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is an accounting framework that gives a quantitative overview of the structure of the economy over a given time period. It records all transactions between economic agents, while respecting the principles of circularity of flows and balance between revenues and expenditures for each account. The level of disaggregation of accounts in the matrix varies according to the analyses to be undertaken and data availability. The accounts in a national SAM generally are production activities, commodities, institutions, and factors of production. For economic analyses and planning, a more detailed SAM is constructed. These involve disaggregation of activities, households, and factors of production from the more general national SAM. In such matrices, the national economy often will also be disaggregated into sub-national regions. Such SAMs provide rich datasets to help decision-makers in developing, designing, and evaluating regional economic and investment policies. As part of the technical cooperation within the (Arab) Agricultural Investment Development Analyzer (AIDA) project, which aims to develop tools for planning and evaluating investment projects in the agricultural sector, the Institut Tunisien de la Compétitivité et des Etudes Quantitatives (ITCEQ – the Tunisian Institute of Competitiveness and Quantitative Studies), in collaboration with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), have built a regionalized SAM of the Tunisian economy with detailed disaggregation at the sector, product, household, and regional levels. This SAM has been constructed using IFPRI's Nexus format, which uses common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. The regionalized SAM for Tunisia was built using national accounts statistics for the country, the Supply and Use Tables for 2015, which are produced by the National Institute of Statistics (NIS). The regionalized matrix is constructed in three steps – national, household, and regional. • The national 2015 SAM for Tunisia includes 46 sectors and 46 products. • For the household SAM, factors of production are split into 13 categories. Capital is disaggregated into four subcategories: crops, livestock, mining, and other. Land is a separate factor of production category. Labor is disaggregated into four education-level categories and across rural and urban areas. For the household SAM, household accounts are split into 15 categories by rural farm, rural nonfarm, and urban categories and then by national per capita expenditure quintiles. • For the regionalized SAM, sectoral production, production factors, and household groups are disaggregated into seven subnational regions: Greater Tunis, North East, North West, Center East, Center West, South East, and South West. The regional 2015 SAM in total has 105 household groups and is composed of 513 rows x 513 columns.

Prioritizing agricultural value chains for reviving the food system in Yemen: Input for an agricultural strategy update

In addition to the unprecedented humanitarian crisis and the creation of space for militant groups, the conflict in Yemen is also taking a heavy toll on the economy. According to estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF 2018) together with information on physical damages from the World Bank-led Yemen Dynamic Damage and Needs Assessment (World Bank et al. 2018), the accumulated impact of the conflict from 2015 to 2018 is estimated to be USD47 billion (in 2014 prices), nearly one and a half times total GDP in 2014. The poverty headcount for Yemen is estimated to have increased from 49 percent in 2014 to 77 percent in 2018. The results of economic recovery scenarios run within a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model of the Yemeni economy suggest that unless significant support is provided by the international community for reconstruction, poverty in coming years, even if the conflict ends, will remain high or increase even further. Poverty outcomes of alternative post-conflict transition options range between a national poverty rate of 84 percent in the worst-case scenario of economic stagnation and 50 percent in the best-case scenario that involves the recovery of physical capital, total factor productivity (TFP) growth increases in all sectors, and significant inflows of foreign aid. Under a recovery scenario with lower foreign aid, the poverty headcount is projected to fall, but only modestly. Only under a recovery scenario with high aid inflows are poverty levels projected to be below pre-conflict levels by 2025.

Household listing and farm household baseline surveys for the food security and agribusiness support (FAS) activity and improving maternal and child health nutrition services (IMCHN) activity

This baseline report is part of a project funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to evaluate the Feed the Future Egypt, Food-Security and Agribusiness Support (FAS) and the Improving Maternal and Child Health and Nutrition Services (IMCHN) projects. The evaluations of FAS and IMCHN are conducted in two main phases: (1) the baseline study, and (2) the evaluation study. This report presents the results of the baseline study. For the baseline study, IFPRI in collaboration with El-Zanaty and Associates conducted a household listing survey from March 29th to April 2nd, 2018 followed by a farm household baseline survey from April 9th to May 8th, 2018 in six Upper Egypt governorates (Assiut, Beni Suef, Luxor, Menya, Qena, and Sohag). A total of 40 enumerators, 10 technicians (for the collection of anthropometry data within the Farm Household Survey) and 10 supervisors were involved in the data collection. Data for both surveys was collected using Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI) technology. This baseline report summarizes the findings of both surveys. The results of the listing survey analysis serve to inform USAID about farm households’ project participation and treatment by FAS and IMCHN, in addition to establishing the sampling frame for the baseline study. The results of the farm household baseline survey analysis determine the baseline indicator values against which FAS and IMCHN will be evaluated in Phase 2. In addition, the analysis of the farm household baseline survey provides new evidence that can help to improve policy and program design and implementation to better leveraging agriculture-health-nutrition linkages in Upper Egypt.

Cash transfers and women’s control over decision-making and labor supply in Egypt

NOTE: Revised December 2021 Women’s control over decision-making within their family, particularly regarding the use of household income, can play an important and long-lasting role in shaping their well-being and that of their children. Cash transfer programs often target women in order to increase their control over household resources. Empirical evidence on the effectiveness of this approach is mixed and suggests the importance of local context. We present evidence on the effect of cash transfers on women’s control over decision-making in the MENA region, where little evidence is available and where cultural norms around women’s roles differ from more-studied regions. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we identify the impact of Egypt’s “Takaful” national cash transfer program on women’s control over decision-making and labor supply. Receiving cash transfers mostly reduced women’s reported ability to influence household decisions, particularly regarding child healthcare. The loss of control over decision-making was greater for women with less than primary education. Other effects of the program include a decline in women’s employment and an increase in men’s involvement in spheres of decision-making usually controlled by women. These results are robust to changes in model specification. We present suggestive evidence from mediation analysis that the negative effects on women’s control over decision-making was directly related to these declines in employment and increase in men’s involvement in female spheres. The negative findings are not wholly supported by complementary qualitative work in which women reported more positive perceptions of the program’s impacts.

Impacts on trust and social capital of a youth employment program in Yemen: Evaluation of the rural and urban advocates working for development intervention for the Social Fund for Development

This paper evaluates the impacts on the participants of the Yemen Social Fund for Development’s youth employment and training program called Rural and Urban Advocates Working for Development (RUAWFD). The evaluation used both traditional surveys and an innovative experimental game methodology to show that the employment program, in addition to aiding youth individually, has important benefits for the country as a whole by contributing to stronger social capital. The survey analysis finds for the program participants significant increases between the baseline and follow-up surveys in self-reported trust in local government institutions and officials, political parties, and tribes. In reflecting on the level of cooperativeness in their own communities, participants reported increased awareness of the presence of marginalized groups and increased perception of cooperativeness in surrounding communities. There was also a significant increase in self-reported trust in people generally, especially for trust in other young people and in people from other areas of Yemen. The experimental game methodology uses a common pool game from the experimental economics literature incentivized by cash payments to measure trust levels between pairs of RUAWFD participants from different geographic regions. This approach confirms the findings from the survey analysis while avoiding possible self-reporting bias. The game results show that trust was lowest at baseline for partners in which one of the partners was from one of the Northern governorates and the other was from one of the Southern governorates. After the intervention, however, not only were average trust levels higher, but Northern-Southern pairs of RUAWFD participants had trust levels closer to those for pairs from the same regions. These findings are consistent with the literature on inter-group contact theory suggesting that community interventions can increase trust in individuals and institutions. This research contributes to a growing literature on trust and social capital as important development indicators, particularly in relation to conflict. The main results suggest that reinforcing social ties across regions in Yemen is an important benefit of the Social Fund for Development’s role as a national development agency and an achievable objective to consider in planning development interventions to contribute to future post-conflict reconstruction.

Ex-post adjustment for measurement error in child stunting calculations: An illustration from Egypt

This study provides estimated ranges for the magnitude of bias caused by measurement error in stunting rates in young children, a widely used proxy for long-term nutritional status.

Yemen: Economy-wide impact of conflict and alternative scenarios for recovery

In addition to the unprecedented humanitarian crisis and the creation of space for militant groups, the conflict in Yemen is also taking a heavy toll on the economy. According to estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF 2018), the Yemeni economy may have contracted by about 40 percent between end-2014 and 2018. Sector-specific information on physical damages from the World Bank’s Yemen Dynamic Needs Assessment (World Bank 2018) suggests that damage was worst in the housing sector, where 33 percent of housing units have been either partially damaged or completely destroyed. The education, health, transport, and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) sectors have also been severely affected, with overall damage ranging from 27 percent (transport) to 31 percent (WASH). The power and ICT sectors have been somewhat less affected, with estimated damage levels of 13 percent and 11 percent, respectively.

First regionalized social accounting matrix for Egypt: A 2015 nexus project social accounting matrix

The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) is pleased to present the first regionalized social accounting matrix (SAM) for Egypt. This SAM marks a major milestone in “localizing” development research and policy in Egypt and is expected to be most valuable for the development, implementation, and assessment of Egypt’s national and local development plans, like Egypt’s Sustainable Development Strategy 2030. In addition to standard SAMs, which combine many national datasets from institutions such as Central Banks, Ministries of Finance and Agriculture, and Statistical Bureaus, this regionalized SAM makes extensive use of sub-national level information such as the Economic Survey and Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIECS) produced by CAPMAS, regional GDP estimates by the Ministry of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform, and the Agricultural Bulletins with information at the Governorate level produced by the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation. With this data it becomes possible to provide a detailed, socioeconomic status update for different regions within Egypt. As such, the disaggregated SAM allows for analyzing developmental issues at regional level and to better understand the potential impacts of policy changes at the local level.

Regionalized Social Accounting Matrix for Yemen: A 2014 Nexus project SAM

A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is a representation of an economy that shows the circular flow of all transfers and real transactions between sectors and institutions. The SAM, which is a square matrix, describes the flows of incomes from activities, taking the form of factor remunerations, that are consequently received by the households for consumption on goods and services. The accounts in the SAM are the production activities, commodities, institutions, and factors of production. According to data availability, the production activities can be further disaggregated to include more detailed information on sub-sectoral or regional production. Similarly, the factors of production could be differentiated by the level of skills or the location of employment. Households can be disaggregated by income quintiles or by rural and urban residence.

MAP Yemen

MAP Yemen is a monitoring tool that keeps track of agriculture, nutrition, and rural development projects in Yemen and their socio-economic context. The ultimate goal of the tool is to improve development project planning, coordination and effectiveness. Specifically, MAP Yemen helps the Government, development partners, researchers and other interested parties to gain a quick overview of the state of food and nutrition security in Yemen at the aggregate and the project level. The tool has been developed for and with the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MOPIC) by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in collaboration with Development Seed and as part of a Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) funded-project. In order to effectively allocate funds, build synergies and evaluate future proposals, users can visualize and monitor the status and progress of agricultural projects categorized by sector, location, donor or common objectives, as well as track key performance indicators related to the project. In order to contextualize projects and evaluate which governorates /districts require further assistance, users can also quickly map, zoom in and chart a wide-range of indicators on food and nutrition security, poverty and development across Yemen, with a focus on monitoring progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) - on the national and subnational level.

Leveraging agricultural interventions for improving nutrition in Egypt

The success of nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions in countries in the Middle East and North Africa has not been examined in much depth. To narrow this knowledge gap, a smallholder farm household survey was conducted in six governorates in Upper Egypt in April and May 2018 following the winter cropping season. The survey provides comprehensive information on agriculture, nutrition, and health. Specifically, the study sought to identify potential levers and challenges along the agriculture-nutrition impact pathways, with attention to value chain development approaches for promoting horticulture. This policy note presents findings from the survey. It should be useful in the design and implementation of nutrition-sensitive agricultural programs in Upper Egypt.

Characteristics of smallholder farm households in Upper Egypt: Implications for nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions

This paper characterizes smallholder farm households in Upper Egypt based on data from a comprehensive farm household survey. The results from the descriptive analysis in combination with findings from the global literature provide recommendations on how agricultural projects can be leveraged for improving nutrition. The importance of focusing on nutrition is underlined by relatively high undernutrition and overnutrition rates among the surveyed farm households: almost 18 percent of children under five years of age are stunted and almost 25 percent of them are at risk of being overweight. Agricultural interventions can impact nutrition through six main pathways, which are: 1) providing direct access to food from own production; 2) providing a source of income from which food and other nutrition needs can be met; 3) affecting food prices; 4) affecting women’s social status and empowerment; 5) affecting women’s time use from participation in agricultural work; and 6) affecting women’s health and nutrition from engagement in agricultural activities. The surveyed farm households purchase in the market most of the foods that they consume, cultivating crops primarily for commercial sale. This finding suggests that access to food markets and the level of food prices are key determinants of food and nutrition security among smallholder farm households in Upper Egypt. The survey analysis also identified potential levers for increasing agricultural productivity, including promoting more efficient use of water, fertilizers, and pesticides and improving farming practices to narrow the productivity gap between small-scale farmers and medium and large-scale farmers. As the role of women in agricultural activities in Upper Egypt is limited, the gendered pathways for leveraging agriculture for improved nutrition are less relevant. However, to achieve positive impact on people’s diet or nutritional status that goes beyond income and price channels, programs that reach farm households in Upper Egypt should include education and behavioral change communication activities, including on themes related to breastfeeding, dietary diversity, physical activities, and sugar intake. For such activities to be effective, it is important to consider the low literacy levels in the population.

The cash for nutrition intervention in Yemen: Impact evaluation study

This evaluation of Yemen’s Cash for Nutrition intervention, a cash transfer program combined with nutritional trainings implemented by the Yemen Social Fund for Development (YSF), examines the program’s impacts on child nutrition indicators and related intermediate variables during a period of conflict. The decline in several indicators of welfare for the sample population that occurred after the beginning of the civil conflict in Yemen is also traced. Overall, the program decreased the share of children diagnosed with moderate or severe malnutrition and improved anthropometric indicators of nutritional status in children in the poorest third of households. The Cash for Nutrition program was funded by the World Bank through the United Nations Development Programme as part of the Yemen Emergency Crisis Response Project.

Beyond the business case for agricultural value chain development: An economywide approach applied to Egypt

This paper goes beyond the “business” case for agricultural value chain development and presents an economy-wide framework to make the “development” case. We show that there are several key transmission channels that determine the economy-wide impacts of promoting various value chains, including forward and backward economic linkages, price responses, and net employment effects. These impacts all matter for household incomes, poverty, and dietary diversity. Results for Egypt show that agricultural value chain development generates economy-wide growth as well as growth in the agri-food system, but the impacts on employment suggest that agricultural growth can create new (and better) jobs in and beyond the agri-food system, but not necessarily more jobs. The results also show that productivity-driven agricultural growth in all crops is pro-poor and improves nutrition. However, potential adverse effects of livestock-led growth show that growth acceleration in single sectors can be negative, highlighting the importance of a systems analysis or, in our case, an economy-wide analysis. It is clear that no single sub-sector is best at achieving all the development outcomes examined. Moreover, the ranking of value chains by their development outcomes differs across sub-national regions. As such, results from this paper may provide useful decision support for the government and its development partners to select value chains depending on their priority development outcomes.

Energy subsidy reform for growth and equity in Egypt: The approach matters

Phasing out energy subsidies is high on the agenda of policymakers in several Middle Eastern and North African countries. The impact of such reform can vary widely depending on the country and policy. This paper contributes to the existing literature by examining the phasing out of energy subsidies in Egypt under alternative economic scenarios. In particular, we consider Egypt's short- and long-term economic adjustment under different assumptions on labor market flexibility, spending options of subsidy savings, and alternative social protection measures. Results from economy-wide model simulations suggest that energy subsidy cuts may hamper economic growth in the short term, but depending on the policy measure, will improve growth perspectives and household welfare in the longer term. Yet, findings also point to likely adverse impacts of the reform on household consumption in the short and longer run. To counteract such negative impacts, targeted social protection measures should be continued and scaled up in parallel with the phasing out of energy subsidies.

Regional developments [in 2019 Global Food Policy Report]

At the regional and country level, developments in 2018 had important repercussions for food security and nutrition. This section of the 2019 Global Food Policy Report offers perspectives on food policy developments across the major regions: Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Central Asia, South Asia, East and Southeast Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. In addition to events and policy changes, the growing focus on rural revitalization in many places and its potential to spark change are examined for each region.

Can unconditional cash transfers mitigate the impact of civil conflict on acute child malnutrition in Yemen?: Evidence from the national social protection monitoring survey

Hunger and acute child malnutrition are increasingly concentrated in fragile countries and civil conflict zones. According to the United Nations, Yemen’s civil war has caused the world’s worst humanitarian crisis in recent history. We use high-frequency panel data and district fixed-effects and household fixed-effects models to estimate the impact of civil conflict on child nutrition. Our results indicate that an increase by one standard deviation in civil conflict intensity translates into an increase in the prevalence of acute child malnutrition by at least 0.7 percentage points if measured by weight-for-height z-scores and by at least 1.7 percentage points if measured by mid-upper arm circumference z-scores. In mid-December 2018, Yemen’s main warring parties agreed to a ceasefire for the contested port city of Hodeida and to allow humanitarian aid to be shipped in and distributed through protected corridors. While the recent agreements are an important, first step to tackle the humanitarian crisis, the road to a sustainable peace agreement will certainly be long and bumpy. Relative stability could soon open a window of opportunity for targeted interventions to support recovery in Yemen. Against this background, our analysis suggests that unconditional cash transfers can be an effective tool in situations of complex emergencies. Our estimation results show that cash transfers can mitigate the detrimental impact of lingering civil conflict on child nutritional status in Yemen on a large scale. Our results also reveal that the regularity of transfer payments influence the magnitude of the mitigation effect, as regular assistance allows beneficiary households to smoothen their food consumption and other demands influencing child nutrition outcomes.

Fiscal outcomes in Bahrain: Oil price volatility, fiscal institutions or politics?

The paper argues that political economy factors, rather than oil wealth, shape the budgetary process and outcomes in Bahrain. Fiscal volatility and excessive current spending (in the form of wages, social welfare and subsidies) leading to unsustainable non-oil deficits are not fully derived from oil price volatility. Weak institutions including those underlying the budgetary process contributed to some fiscal laxity. They have allowed rulers to use current spending as a channel for the redistribution of oil rents and to secure political stability and allegiance to the regime in a turbulent socio-political environment. The budgetary process is undermined by the structure of the bicameral parliament and the absence of restrictions on the parliament to amend the budget weaken the position of the executive. In the general context of limited transparency and accountability, the government may also be exercising its discretionary powers over the budget execution but it would not be known.

Egypt’s Takaful and Karama cash transfer program: Evaluation of program impacts and recommendations

Egypt has been providing cash to poor households through its first conditional cash transfer program, Takaful and Karama, a social protection program run by the Ministry of Social Solidarity (MoSS), since March 2015. Takaful (“Solidarity”) supports poor families with children under 18, while Karama (“Dignity”) supports the elderly poor and people living with disabilities. The cash transfer program has enrolled 2.25 million families across all of Egypt’s governorates. The amount of the Takaful cash transfer provided to households depends on the number of children and their school level. The Karama program provides a set amount per individual. In order to reach the poorest households, participants are selected using a proxy means test. In the Takaful program, 89 percent of recipients are women, while only 11 percent are men. Beginning in 2018, Takaful will also begin implementing conditionalities, requiring households in the program to ensure their children attend school and participate in health screenings, added to antenatal care for pregnant women and post-natal care. The Takaful and Karama program was evaluated by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) using both quantitative statistical methods (simple questions asked to many households during a survey) and qualitative methods (more in-depth questions asked to fewer households in longer interviews). The evaluation was designed to measure and explain the impacts of the cash transfers on household welfare, and to examine whether the program’s criteria for household selection were effective in identifying poor households. This brief, which focuses on the Takaful component of the program, summarizes the main findings from the evaluation and key recommendations.