International food trade plays a vital role in food security. It has the effect of balancing deficits of net food importers with surpluses of net food exporters in the context of the many interconnections between economic, social, political and health-related systems – at local, regional and global scales. For the United Arab Emirates and other countries in the MENA region that are highly dependent on food imports, ensuring access and availability of food supplies is becoming increasingly challenging with climate change. Even countries whose risk of food insecurity is currently classified as low face the need for new approaches as they confront potential implications of future climate change on global food production.
The issue of food security under climate change for import-reliant countries was explored in a recent case study of UAE commissioned by the Abu Dhabi Global Environmental Data Initiative. Countries like the UAE are faced with limited food production options due to a hyper-arid environment and are dependent on stable international food trade flows. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), about 87% of UAE food supply is imported, on average. Some essential food categories account for upwards of 95% of food supply (e.g., cereals). The lack of viable local production options suggests that disruptions to international food markets would likely impact the UAE more than countries where local food production alternatives are available. The study’s central question was: How would trade with food exporting countries on which the UAE has traditionally relied be affected by climate change? Addressing this question required attention to interlinked issues such as UAE food supply patterns, global climate change projected impacts on agriculture, performance of international trade and financial markets, food security policy initiatives underway, among others.
The outputs of IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) was used to explore potential decline in food exports from the UAE’s historical top exporters. To account for uncertainty, 13 different alternative national food production futures were considered up through 2050, based on the emission scenarios and general circulation models included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report. Under a Baseline scenario, annual exports of food to the UAE for all major food-country combinations was projected based on a stable climate. Under the alternative futures, available food exports to the UAE for the same food-country combinations were quantified based on the change in agricultural productivity relative to the baseline and projected food demand in the UAE.
Annual and cumulative food export gaps were then estimated for each country-food combination for each alternative food production future. Upon estimating the import gaps for all country-food combinations, the results were standardized into a food import insecurity index from 1 to 10, with 1 indicating the lowest risks to future imports under climate change and 10 indicating the highest risks to future imports under climate change. This approach enabled direct comparisons regarding the future vulnerability of imports to the UAE for a comprehensive set of country-food combinations.
Food Import Insecurity Index, by food item 
Table 1 provides a summary of the results by major food item. Green-shaded rows indicate low food import insecurity under climate change (Index =1 to 2; food exports to the UAE are unconstrained in all years). Orange-shaded rows indicate modest food import insecurity (Index =3 to 4; food exports to the UAE under climate change are constrained in some years). Red-shaded rows indicate high food import insecurity under climate change (Index = 5 to 10; food exports to the UAE are constrained in all years). The results highlight that most major food imports to the UAE will be constrained under climate change. In particular, rice and wheat are strongly insecure food items for the UAE under climate change, with both of these cereals having a Food Insecurity Index of 10. This, in turn, indicates that future food import gaps are large and adaptation strategies will need to be developed to alleviate potential constraints in import supplies. Therefore, proactive planning is needed to identify appropriate coping strategies, options and measures to reduce risks associated with climate change impacts on future food trade markets.
