December 4, 2018
Dorte Verner - Lead Agriculture Economist, World Bank
Findings from three new World Bank reports provide a strong reminder to build resilience to extreme weather events. Climate change, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other recurrent climate events are making already water-scarce countries in the Middle East and North Africa more vulnerable. Adverse climatic impacts on agriculture – including on wheat and other rainfed crops that are vital for food security -- is a growing liability for Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia, with projected impacts on household and national economies.
Agriculture is important not only for rural communities but also for the overall economy in these three countries. In Morocco, agriculture employs 30 percent of the population, produces 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and results in 30 percent of exports. In Tunisia, agriculture accounts for 20 percent of employment, 10 percent of GDP and 12 percent of exports. In Lebanon, agriculture accounts for 6 percent of employment, 4 percent of GDP and 15 percent of exports. This makes the stakes of climate change arguably very high.
A recent study by the World Bank brings home the social and economic impacts of drought on Morocco’s agriculture. The most recent drought, from November 2015 to spring 2016, caused a 3 percent decline in economic growth. This was caused by decreased agricultural output, predominantly in cereals. The citrus and olive value chains also experienced output declines as water shortages occurred. Farmers took mitigation actions, including the purchase of crop insurance prior to the drought to avoid a dramatic decrease in household income, which alleviated the negative drought shock’s effect on income.
In turn, a recent World Bank report on climate impacts on Tunisia's agriculture sector found that multiyear droughts and general rainfall variability are becoming major challenges. Surface water is becoming scarcer, leading farmers to use groundwater to supplement crop and fruit tree irrigation. This form of adaptation to climate variability makes water even scarcer over time. To break this downward spiral requires improved water resource management and stronger enforcement of existing laws and regulations. The report calls for additional action on implementing integrated drought management plans to address both short-term and long-term water scarcity problems.
The case of Lebanon highlights the need for both short-term emergency assistance and longer-term policy, structural, and institutional interventions in response to drought. Lebanon’s Early Warning System (EWS) is particularly notable and could serve as a model for the region. The Lebanese Agriculture Research Institute (LARI) has created weather forecasting facilities and developed a nationwide drought EWS for Lebanese growers. These services necessitate daily monitoring, recording and forecasting. LARI’s experts analyze the gathered weather data and develop information services before disseminating to farmers and the public. In recognizing of the country’s typology and few weather stations, LARI created an Automated Weather Station Network.
A few common recommendations emerge from the three studies:
First, scale-up national drought monitoring systems. This would improve drought monitoring capacity and the timely communication of data, both of which are important steps in initiating any drought response.
Second, develop a drought management plan that focuses on risk reduction. This could include organizational frameworks and operational arrangements.
Third, improve collaboration among public sector institutions and improve access to information, so farmers can make more effective investments.
Fourth, apply more sustainable agriculture technologies. There are opportunities to improve and expand new climate-smart and water-saving Frontier Agriculture technologies like hydroponics, which can help mitigate increasing water pressures, feed nutritious food to large urban populations, and accommodate small land holdings.
Finally, the recent 2018 IPPC report is a strong reminder that even if drastic climate action is taken at the global and country levels, extreme weather events are likely to increase in the future. It’s time for us all to prepare for that.
