Event summary Blog
By Abdallah Tarek and Alaa Mazloum
Introduction:
Egypt stands at a critical juncture for prioritizing adaptation strategies to navigate a changing climate. To this end, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) through the Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity (EIBC) project , and in partnership with the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation (MALR), and the Climate Change Information Center (CCIC), Launched the Climate Change Future Watch (CCFW); an online tool that allows users to explore the potential climate futures of specific crops until 2050. IFPRI held a launch event titled “Launch of Climate Change Future Watch” on 10 March 2024 in Cairo, Egypt.
The event brought together policymakers, development practitioners, academics, and researchers working on the issue of climate change in Egypt to get introduced to the tool and contribute to the discussion that followed. Besides introducing the tool, the launch event was dedicated to explaining to the attendees the science and the modeling behind the tool.
Opening Remarks:
Dr. Sikandra Kurdi, Research Fellow and Egypt Country Program Leader of IFPRI, commenced the event by underscoring the collaborative efforts and described the value of CCFW as publicly accessible tool that provides key insights from modeling to decision makers, who do not have to invest time in doing modeling themselves, to see and understand the impact of climate change. This in return will enable decision makers to compare benefits of investing in different types of climate adaptation for Egypt’s production, by choosing what outcomes to compare under which assumptions about climate change and adaptation investment, and view results immediately.
Ms. Laura Gonzalez ,Director of the Office of Economic Growth, USAID emphasized the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to address climate change's profound challenges in Egypt's agriculture sector. She advocated for a holistic approach to address climate change, including renewable energy adoption, environmental education, and effective policy implementation. Ms. Gonzalez underscored the groundbreaking role that CCFW will play in helping “produce forecasts detailing the consequences of different climate change impacts on the agricultural sector that will go a long way in helping communities plan for and mitigate the worst consequences of climate change”. She concluded by saying “only through shared responsibility, solidarity, and innovation can we hope to mitigate the impacts of climate change and safeguard the planet for future generations”.
Dr. Mohamed Fahim, Director of CCIC, echoed Ms. Gonzalez's concerns about climate change's severe impact on Egypt's agriculture sector. He emphasized that climate change is a complex, global issue with enduring consequences, beyond simple remedies. Dr. Fahim highlighted how increased CO2 emissions disrupt seasonal patterns, affecting Egypt's agricultural calendar and productivity. He warned against short-term solutions, advocated instead for a holistic, research-driven approach to adaptation. Dr. Fahim stressed on the importance of understanding how different crops are affected by climate change, emphasizing the need for comprehensive research to inform adaptation strategies. Fahim underlined the importance of research in informing decision-making and proactively adopting tailored adaptation measures to mitigate climate change risks in agriculture.
Unveiling the CCFW Modeling:
Dr. Nicostrato Perez, Research Fellow at IFPRI, explained that central to CCFW is the IFPRI IMPACT model which integrates economic, climate, crop, and water models to forecast climate impacts on Egyptian agriculture up to 2050. The modeling builds on various climate projections which predict rising temperatures in the Nile River Basin and increased precipitation for Egypt and Sudan. The modeling results anticipate productivity declines especially in in maize and pulses production. Dr. Perez underscored how the economic ramifications of climate change on global food prices will necessitate urgent adaptation measures. Four adaptation strategies are modeled in the tool: investment in agricultural research and development (R&D) for new seed varieties, investment in modernizing irrigation systems, , investment in improved crop protection from weeds, pests, and diseases, investment in soil fertility management technologies, and stacked investment across these adaptation strategies. Dr. Perez showed how the modeling demonstrates the substantial benefits of implementing adaptation strategies for Egypt's economic development and food security, with stacked adaptation strategies emerging as the most effective approach.
Panel Discussion:
Dr. Gamal Siam, Professor at Cairo University, stressed the importance of clarifying the target audience of the tool to include policymakers, farmers, and stakeholders in development sector and engage them in a communal dialogue. Siam proposed establishing a dedicated unit for climate change research in agriculture and emphasized fostering dialogue among stakeholders to effectively address future climate change consequences. He called for enhanced adaptability, user-friendliness, and increased resources for agricultural research to tackle climate change challenges effectively.
Dr. Ali Abdel Mohsen, Director of the Economic Affairs Sector at MALR, reiterated the importance of the CCFW tool in addressing climate change challenges faced by Egypt's agriculture sector. He emphasized collaboration among all sectors for cohesive outcomes and highlighted the tool's instrumental role in implementing Egypt’s Sustainable Agriculture Development Strategy 2030 to enhance self-sufficiency in crop production. Additionally, he stressed the importance of complementary measures such as innovative irrigation techniques and renewable energy integration to enhance the sector's resilience.
Dr. Khaled Shedeed, Deputy Chief of Party for TAIB at Land O'Lakes, Venture 37, highlighted the CCFW tool's ability to prioritize development investments based on climate change impacts on various crop varieties. He stressed the importance of user accessibility, interaction within the tool, and validation of data sources. Dr. Shedeed highlighted the importance of involving stakeholders across the value chain including farmers, agriculture cooperatives, amongst others in furthering developing the tool and fully utilizing it, noting that it will significantly assist policymakers in formulating adaptation policies.
Dr. George Meddings, Post-Doctoral Fellow at Alliance Bioversity-CIAT, highlighted the importance of user-friendliness and accessibility of the CCFW tool. He noted that the tool will enhance climate literacy among students and researchers, in addition to fostering informed decision-making. George underscored the need to incorporate climate change action into social protection programs to address socio-economic impacts effectively.
Concluding Remarks:
The seminar concluded with a question-and-answer session which provoked further discussion of various topics related to the tool and climate change. It is evident that forging a path towards climate adaptation in Egypt's agriculture sector demands collaborative efforts and data driven solutions. The unveiling of the CCFW tool offers invaluable insights into climate change impacts and policy interventions. CCFW empowers stakeholders, particularly policymakers, to proactively address climate change by providing them with science backed forecasting.
The CCFW tool is available at: https://ccfw.ifpri.org/. The tool will eventually also include similar forecasting for other countries in the MENA region.
