Synopsis (short abstract):
The Near East and North Africa (NENA) region faces a growing number of complex, overlapping and compounding hazards that are undermining livelihoods, deepening food insecurity and slowing economic development. Increasingly frequent and severe climate extremes – such as droughts, flash floods, heatwaves – are converging with transboundary plant and animal diseases, protracted conflicts and economic volatility. These risks disproportionately impact the agricultural sector, which remains a cornerstone of rural livelihoods and food systems in the region. In this context, anticipatory action (AA) offers a promising, proactive approach to reduce disaster impacts by taking early action ahead of predictable shocks. Enabled by advances in climateforecasting, hazard modelling, and early warning systems, AA involves acting before a crisis unfolds. It uses pre-agreed triggers, protocols, and financing mechanisms to mitigate risks to lives and livelihoods. While AA is gaining traction in the NENA region, especially within humanitarian sectors, its integration into the agricultural domain remains limited and fragmented. Agricultural producers are often targeted as vulnerable recipients of humanitarian aid, rather than as essential actors whose protection is key to safeguarding food systems, rural economies, and national stability.This report argues for a strategic expansion of AA to more systematically include the agricultural components, to place it at the intersection of humanitarian response and long-term climateadaptation. It emphasizes early protection of production systems – livestock, crops, fisheries and natural resources – before forecasted shocks occur. By focusing on proactive risk reduction for agriculture, AA for agriculture offers a dual benefit: preserving rural livelihoods and protecting food supply chains, especially in fragile or climate-vulnerable areas.The Thirty-seventh Session of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Regional Conference for the Near East and North Africa (NERC37) recognized the urgency of this approach, calling for increased investment in AA systems for the agricultural sector. Priority areas include multihazard early warning systems (MHEWS), forecast-based financing mechanisms, agricultural insurance schemes, and links to social protection programmes. Yet significant gaps remain. Drawing on a comprehensive literature review, interviews with key stakeholders, and regional online survey data, this report provides a detailed mapping of existing AA initiatives, agricultural hazards, and delivery capacities in the NENA region. It highlights governance, coordination, early warning, financing and delivery challenges, while identifying promising opportunities for expanding AA to better address agricultural hazards.
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