Journal Articles

Harnessing digital innovations for climate action and market access: Opportunities and constraints in the CWANA region

There is growing optimism about the potential of digital innovations to support climate action and transform agricultural markets. We review and characterize the landscape of digital innovations in the Central and West Asia and North Africa (CWANA) region. We highlight major success stories associated with the potential of digital innovations to facilitate rural market transformation and support climate action, including adaptation and mitigation. Our desk and landscape review identifies various digital innovations used in Egypt, Morocco, and Uzbekistan. We then create a typology of digital innovations based on seven broad service categorizations: weather and climate; agricultural finance; energy and early warning systems; data and crowdsourcing; market information and market place; extension and advisory information; and supply chain coordination. Three technical and validation workshops supplement this review. Our review shows that digital innovations have the potential to build resilience to climate change and increase market access, but their adoption remains low and varying across contexts. Significant heterogeneity and differences exist across these countries, possibly due to different institutional and regulatory frameworks that guide demand and capacity. We identify several supply and demand-side constraints facing the digital ecosystem in the region. There is the existence of a significant digital divide fueled by gender, literacy gaps, and related socioeconomic and psychosocial constraints. A seeming disconnect also exists between pilots and scale-ups, as most existing digital applications are unsuccessful in expanding beyond the pilot phase.

From food subsidies to cash transfers: Assessing economy-wide benefits and trade-offs in Egypt

Food is a vital part of poor households' budgets and so subsidizing staple foods would appear to be an obvious pro-poor policy. Indeed, most countries in North Africa have prioritized large national subsidy programs for staple foods and fuels as their main social safety net. However, these programs account for significant shares of government spending and often drive fiscal deficits, especially when import prices rise. In this paper we use a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model to evaluate the trade-offs between reducing poverty and managing fiscal balances. The modeling framework allows us to measure the efficiency costs of subsidies compared to cash transfers - switching to the latter is an emerging regional trend. We analyze these issues through a detailed case study of Egypt, where efforts to replace food subsidies with cash transfers is already underway. Data is also available in Egypt to design scenarios that realistically reflect potential targeting effectiveness and administrative costs. We show that replacing broad food subsidies with targeted cash transfers of roughly equivalent fiscal costs can improve the welfare of the poorest households, but the continuation of fiscal deficits results in a deceleration of economic growth. The latter gradually reduces welfare gains for the poor and leads to substantial welfare losses for middle-income households who lose access to subsidies without benefitting from cash transfers. Our findings highlight the political challenges facing subsidy reform programs.

Terrorism and inbound tourism in Egypt: Economy-wide and distributional impacts

Following the January 2011 Revolution, Egypt experienced increasing political instability and has also been the target of intense terrorist attacks. While substantial efforts continue to be exerted by the current regime to put an end to these attacks, it is not clear whether the country's reputation as a safe tourist destination will be restored in the medium run. This paper assesses the extent of the Egyptian economy's vulnerability to a prolonged tourism shock using an economy‐wide framework. The simulation results reveal that a shock to tourism has a significant impact on the Egyptian economy, as a rebound of inbound tourism substantially increases both GDP and welfare. Consequently, it pays for the government to put measures in place to moderate the effect of negative shocks to inbound tourism. A subsidy to health tourism was found to boost both economic growth and welfare.

The Russia-Ukraine war: Implications for global and regional food security and potential policy responses

This paper analyzes the implications of the Russian-Ukraine war on global and regional food security. We start with a global vulnerability analysis to identify most vulnerable regions and countries. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is particularly vulnerable to trade shocks because of its high food import dependence. Thus, we provide descriptive evidence characterizing how food systems and policies impact vulnerability to the price shock in selected MENA countries: Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen. Within these countries, we show that the crisis will differentially impact poor and non-poor households as well as rural and urban households. Although the absolute level of food insecurity may still be higher in rural areas where larger numbers of poor households are located, urban poor are likely to suffer most because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and associated hikes in food prices, especially in those countries where social protection and food subsidies are missing. We review lessons from previous food crises and identify actions needed to take (and to avoid) to protect most vulnerable countries and households in the short-term while also highlighting long-term policy options to diversify food, fertilizer and energy production and trade.

Cluster-based agricultural development: A comparison between China and Africa

Clusters for high-value crops are ubiquitous in China and in African countries. Drawing from three case studies (potato cluster in China, medicinal and aromatic cluster in Egypt, and dates cluster in Tunisia), this chapter discusses the major challenges facing cluster development and the roles of different agents (e.g. entrepreneurs, business associations, and local governments). Cluster development involves supply-side or demand-side bottlenecks along the way, which are beyond the capacity of individual enterprises. Whether a cluster can develop to the next stage depends crucially upon whether the bottlenecks can be resolved. Because the bottlenecks are context- and temporal-specific, it would be impossible for a planner or outsider donor to prescribe a one-size-fits-all intervention to overcome all the binding constraints. Instead, local elites, such as business leaders and local officials, can play a greater role in identifying the emerging bottlenecks and figuring out indigenous solutions. In China, because local governments have an embedded interest in promoting local economic development, they are keen to provide local public goods or initiate joint actions to address the successive binding constraints and facilitate cluster development. By comparison, the role of the local government is more muted in Africa, limiting the growth potentials of agricultural clusters.

Plot size and sustainable input intensification in smallholder irrigated agriculture: Evidence from Egypt

Increasing population pressure and population density in many African countries are inducing land scarcity and land constraints. Tightening land constraints are expected to trigger various responses, including agricultural intensification, as postulated by the Boserup hypothesis. The relevance of the Boserup hypothesis in irrigated agriculture, and in contexts where application of improved inputs is high, remains largely unexplored. Furthermore, while much of the debate on the topic in Africa has focused on how to boost agricultural intensification, there is scant evidence on whether evolving agricultural intensification practices in some parts of Africa are sustainable. In this article, we investigate the implication of land size (at the plot and farm level) on agricultural intensification. Our analysis sheds light on the relevance of the Boserup hypothesis in the context of Egypt, where irrigation dominates agriculture and input application rates are high relative to global standards. We also examine whether evolving agricultural intensification practices induced by land scarcity are agronomically appropriate. Our findings show that smaller plot and farm sizes are associated with higher application of agricultural inputs, mainly nitrogen fertilizers. Importantly, small plot size is associated with overapplication of nitrogen fertilizer relative to crop-specific agronomic recommendations. In addition, smaller plots are associated with higher rates of labor application and lower rates of mechanization.

Balancing national economic policy outcomes for sustainable development

The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim at jointly improving economic, social, and environmental outcomes for human prosperity and planetary health. However, designing national economic policies that support advancement across multiple Sustainable Development Goals is hindered by the complexities of multi-sector economies and often conflicting policies. To address this, we introduce a national-scale design framework that can enable policymakers to sift through complex, non-linear, multi-sector policy spaces to identify efficient policy portfolios that balance economic, social, and environmental goals. The framework combines economy-wide sustainability simulation and artificial intelligence-driven multiobjective, multi-SDG policy search and machine learning. The framework can support multi-sector, multi-actor policy deliberation to screen efficient policy portfolios. We demonstrate the utility of the framework for a case study of Egypt by identifying policy portfolios that achieve efficient mixes of poverty and inequality reduction, economic growth, and climate change mitigation. The results show that integrated policy strategies can help achieve sustainable development while balancing adverse economic, social, and political impacts of reforms.

Food trade openness and enhancement of food security: Partial equilibrium model simulations for selected countries

This research measured the welfare impacts of food trade liberalization in India, Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) using the partial equilibrium model—World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS). Macroeconomic settings, domestic objectives, and food security indicator data are used to assess the implications of the simulations on food availability and stability. Simulation results for India, Egypt, and Pakistan indicate annual welfare gains (consumer surplus) of 2571, 340, and 25 million USD, respectively, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE have gains of 14 and 17 million USD. Results show that tariff elimination would have wide-ranging welfare impacts across food commodities within these countries. Moreover, reductions for specific commodities directly relevant to food energy and protein availability would have a greater direct impact on the poor. Lowering the highest tariffs on those commodities might raise the real incomes of more than 350 million persons by 7.5% or more and could create shifts in consumption towards more diversified and nutritionally sound diets.

Inequality of opportunity in earnings and assets in Egypt

Long-term optimization of regional power sector development: Potential for cooperation in the Eastern Nile region?

This paper develops a regional TIMES modelling framework for the electricity sector of the Eastern Nile Basin region, including Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, to assess the potential of energy trading for cross-border collaboration in this rapidly growing sector. Four alternative scenarios are developed for the 2014–2050 period to assess national and regional benefits of alternative energy development strategies. The study finds that electricity trading scenarios out-perform a reference scenario that assumes no energy trading, lowering systems cost by 4.5–7.2%. Total systems costs are lower, even when transmission costs for trade are considered. Costs are also lower with increased generation from renewables compared to investments without regional trade. Investing in renewables has important co-benefits, such as improved energy security and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Supporting energy trade not only reduces systems costs, but can also strengthen cooperation in the region, as reflected in the energy trading efforts of the East African Power Pool and the transboundary collaboration efforts of the Nile Basin Initiative.

Agricultural growth and sex-disaggregated employment in Africa: Future perspectives under different investment scenarios

Literature is scanty on how public agricultural investments can help reducing the impact of future challenges such as climate change and population pressure on national economies. The objective of this study is to assess the medium and long-term effects of alternative agricultural research and development investment scenarios on male and female employment in 14 African countries. We first estimate the effects of agricultural investment scenarios on the overall GDP growth of a given country using partial and general equilibrium models. Secondly, using employment elasticities to GDP growth, we estimate the impact of GDP growth on overall employment in the economy. Results show that, increased investments in agriculture could generate higher overall employment and reduce gender disparities in labor participation. In 8 out of 14 sampled countries, female employment increased more than male employment in response to agricultural investments. Investment in infrastructure had higher impact on female employment growth compared to productivity scenarios.

Ex post adjustment for measurement error in stunting calculations: An illustration from Egypt

The present study provides ranges for the magnitude of bias caused by measurement error in stunting rates, a widely used a proxy for long-term nutritional status.Stunting, which is determined by the number of cases that fall below −2 sd from the mean height-for-age in the population, mechanically increases with higher variance. This variance stems from both natural heterogeneity in the population and measurement error. To isolate the effect of measurement error, we model the true distributions which could give rise to the observed distributions after subtracting a simulated measurement error.We analyse information from three rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in Egypt (2005, 2008 and 2014). Egypt ranks high among developing countries with low-quality anthropometric data collected in the DHS, currently the main source of anthropometry in the country.The study relies on re-analysis of existing DHS data, which record height, weight and age data for children under 5 years old.Under the most conservative assumptions about measurement error, the stunting rate falls by 4 percentage points for the most recent DHS round, while assuming higher levels of measurement error reduces the stunting rate more dramatically.Researchers should be aware of and adjust for data quality concerns in calculating stunting rates for cross-survey comparisons or in communicating to policy makers.

Energy subsidy reform for growth and equity in Egypt: The approach matters

Phasing out energy subsidies is high on the agenda of policymakers in several Middle Eastern and North African countries. The impact of such reform can vary widely depending on the country and policy. This paper contributes to the existing literature by examining the phasing out of energy subsidies in Egypt under alternative economic scenarios. In particular, we consider Egypt's short- and long-term economic adjustment under different assumptions on labor market flexibility, spending options of subsidy savings, and alternative social protection measures. Results from economy-wide model simulations suggest that energy subsidy cuts may hamper economic growth in the short term, but depending on the policy measure, will improve growth perspectives and household welfare in the longer term. Yet, findings also point to likely adverse impacts of the reform on household consumption in the short and longer run. To counteract such negative impacts, targeted social protection measures should be continued and scaled up in parallel with the phasing out of energy subsidies.

Long-Term Optimization of Egypt's Power Sector: Policy Implications

This paper presents an evaluation of energy supply strategies for Egypt’s power sector and identifies prospects to meet rising electricity demand while addressing energy security and low-carbon development issues. We apply the TIMES energy system model to examine Egypt’s energy policy goals as reflected in Egypt’s Vision 2030, and specifically: (a) targeted power generation based on renewable energy under two different scenarios; (b) targeted carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions’ mitigation toward low-carbon society development; and (c) constraints on natural gas production for power generation. The quantitative results from the model suggest a need for diversification from predominantly natural gas to a mix of renewable and conventional energy sources in order to improve energy security, reduce dependency on fossil fuels, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, with the level of diversification changing with different policy options. Although total energy system cost is projected to increase the effects on fossil-fuel dependency, diversity of energy supply-mix, marginal electricity generation price, and GHG mitigation indicate that it may be wise to target promotion of renewable energy for power generation and develop a low-carbon society.

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A moral economy of water: Charity wells in Egypt's Nile delta

Though commonly viewed as a human right, access to water is often difficult and highly unequal within and between communities, depending on various social and power relations, access mechanisms and property rights regimes. However, moral norms and subsistence ethics can also play a balancing role, enhancing access to water for vulnerable groups and individuals, particularly in contexts of water scarcity. Using the example of a Nile Delta village, this article explores the role of charitable water wells (sobol) in influencing both irrigation and drinking water access relations, by understanding their different modes of governance and the motivations behind their emergence. The article argues that charitable norms underlying sobol are dynamic. They stem from certain moral ideologies concerning religion, property and reciprocity, and while they do greatly enhance access to water, it is with varying degrees, limitations and remaining access discrepancies. Sobol alter property rights relations, extending entitlements to water, but their effectiveness is also limited by existing property rights regimes. Sobol are also limited by existing anti‐cooperative actions, and being embedded in an inequitable access system, they may not fully counterbalance inequitable water access. The limitations of cooperative water access arrangements should be counterweighed and complemented by overarching and equitable water distribution systems.

Climate change and economic growth: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis for Egypt

Harnessing the sun and wind for economic development?: An economy-wide assessment for Egypt

While the recent political transition in Egypt has delayed much-needed policy reforms, our paper suggests that under certain conditions, fostering the national renewable energy strategy may be a promising way of giving an ailing economy an urgently needed impetus. Based on the literature and results of a renewable-energy focused computable general equilibrium model, we recommend that Egypt supports the generation of wind power. While some energy may be exported to generate foreign exchange, a substantial part of the newly produced energy should be sold domestically to ease existing supply constraints and to avoid Dutch disease effects. In addition, and in order to maximize the benefits of renewable energy sources, the renewable energy strategy should be accompanied by a (further) reduction of energy subsidies. Finally, lessons from other countries suggest that sound institutions; appropriate, clear and lasting regulations; careful technology transfer; and cross-ministerial coordination are important for success.

Comment on: Abou-Ali, H., El-Azony, H., El-Laithy, H., Haughton, J. and Khandker, S., 2010. Evaluating the impact of Egyptian Social Fund for Development programmes. Journal of Development Effectiveness, 2 (4), 521-555

The value of the high Aswan Dam to the Egyptian economy

The overlap of overweight and anemia among women in three countries undergoing the nutrition transition

Micronutrient deficiency and the prevalence of mothers’ overweight/obesity in Egypt

Robust poverty and inequality measurement in Egypt: correcting for spatial-price variation and sample design effects

The paper estimates inequality and absolute poverty in Egypt for 1997 with measures that are robust to sample design effects and corrected for spatial variation in price levels. Standard errors for inequality indices are calculated using a bootstrap approach which replicates the sample design. Standard errors for poverty indices are corrected for the design effects resulting from sample stratification and clustering. The authors use data from the Egypt Integrated Household Survey and follow the cost‐of‐basic‐needs methodology to construct region‐specific poverty lines. It is found that 15.7 million people were poor in Egypt in 1997, or 26.5% of the population. The estimates indicate a sharp sectoral difference with rural areas being significantly poorer, but significant differences in poverty were not found between Upper and Lower Egypt. This finding differs substantially from the conventional wisdom that Upper Egypt is poorer than Lower Egypt and results from the correction for spatial‐price variation.

Weighing what's practical: proxy means tests for targeting food subsidies in Egypt

Despite achieving a significant cost reduction over the past two decades, the absolute cost of food subsidies in Egypt is still high relative to the benefits received by the poor. There is scope for better targeting food subsidies, in particular those for rationed cooking oil and sugar, both because reforms in this area are perceived to be far less politically sensitive than adjusting subsidy policies for bread and wheat flour and because higher income groups presently receive a significant percentage of the benefits. Targeting the high-subsidy green ration cards to the poor and the low-subsidy red ration cards to the nonpoor will require identification of both poor and nonpoor households. An International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) research team in Egypt, in collaboration with the Egyptian Ministry of Trade and Supply, developed a proxy means test for targeting ration cards. This paper describes the process of moving from the optimal income-predicting model to the final model that was both administratively and politically feasible. An ex-ante evaluation of the levels of accuracy of the proxy means testing model indicates that the model performs quite well in predicting the needy and nonneedy households. An effective and full implementation of this targeting method would increase the equity in the ration card food subsidy system and, at the same time, lower the total budgetary costs of rationed food subsidies. Moreover, the experience gained under this reform would facilitate targeting future social interventions to reduce and prevent poverty in Egypt.

Avoiding chronic and transitory poverty: evidence from Egypt, 1997-1999

A profile of poverty in Egypt

This paper presents a profile of poverty in Egypt for 1997. It assesses the magnitude of poverty and its distribution across geographic and socioeconomic groups, provides information on the characteristics of the poor, illustrates the heterogeneity amongst the poor, and helps identify empirical correlates of poverty. This poverty profile is constructed using data from the Egypt Integrated Household Survey (EIHS), which is a nationwide, multiple-topic household survey. One of the more striking set of findings relates to the differences between the poor and the non-poor in their educational attainments. Our results indicate a significant literacy and schooling gap between the poor and the non-poor. On average the poor have 2.6 fewer years of schooling than the non-poor, and their literacy rate is 27 percent lower than the non-poor. Our results also indicate that augmenting educational attainment of the poor does not require building more schools, but reducing the poor s opportunity cost of attending schools and increasing their returns from extra schooling, both suggesting the importance of income generating activities as a policy instrument.

Food subsidies in Egypt: reform options, distribution and welfare

Ensuring food security in Egypt: food subsidy, income generation and market reform, Cairo, Egypt, 25-26 May 1999

A new approach to SAM updating with an application to Egypt

When social accounting matrices (SAMs) are updated with fragmentary data the new column and row totals are often not all known in advance. Also, the overall total of all matrix entries may not be known. This results in a situation in which the generally used RAS method cannot be applied to update the SAM, as the outcomes become unreliable with unknown totals. In this paper a generalised version of the RAS method is developed, based on information theory. This method, which incorporates the RAS method as a special case, is more flexible with respect to necessary information and improves the accuracy of the updated SAMs. In addition to developing a generalised RAS method, we present an easily applied procedure for building SAMs which reduces the time needed to update them. The generalised RAS method and the SAM building procedure are applied to a 1991–92 SAM for Egypt.

Wheat policy reform in Egypt: effects on production, prices, and marketing channels

Policy reforms and technological change in Egyptian rice production: a frontier production function approach

The Egyptian food subsidy system: operation and effects on income distribution

Price competitiveness and variability in Egyptian cotton: effects of sectoral and economy-wide policies

Macro and micro effects of subsidy cuts: a short-run CGE analysis for Egypt

The economic and demographic determinants of international migration in rural Egypt

The economic uses and impact of international remittances in rural Egypt

Worker remittances and inequality in rural Egypt

Bureaucrats, peasants and the dominant coalition: an Egyptian case study

Egypt's food subsidy policy: Lessons and options

Development and structural change in rural Egypt, 1952 to 1982

Modelación de política gubernamental: el caso de las importaciones de alimentos, política de precios y la balanza de pagos en Egipto