From food subsidies to cash transfers: Assessing economy-wide benefits and trade-offs in Egypt
Breisinger, Clemens; Kassim, Yumna; Kurdi, Sikandra; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Thurlow, James. Article in press
Breisinger, Clemens; Kassim, Yumna; Kurdi, Sikandra; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Thurlow, James. Article in press
DOI : 10.1093/jae/ejad006
Abstract | View
Food is a vital part of poor households' budgets and so subsidizing staple foods would appear to be an obvious pro-poor policy. Indeed, most countries in North Africa have prioritized large national subsidy programs for staple foods and fuels as their main social safety net. However, these programs account for significant shares of government spending and often drive fiscal deficits, especially when import prices rise. In this paper we use a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model to evaluate the trade-offs between reducing poverty and managing fiscal balances. The modeling framework allows us to measure the efficiency costs of subsidies compared to cash transfers - switching to the latter is an emerging regional trend. We analyze these issues through a detailed case study of Egypt, where efforts to replace food subsidies with cash transfers is already underway. Data is also available in Egypt to design scenarios that realistically reflect potential targeting effectiveness and administrative costs. We show that replacing broad food subsidies with targeted cash transfers of roughly equivalent fiscal costs can improve the welfare of the poorest households, but the continuation of fiscal deficits results in a deceleration of economic growth. The latter gradually reduces welfare gains for the poor and leads to substantial welfare losses for middle-income households who lose access to subsidies without benefitting from cash transfers. Our findings highlight the political challenges facing subsidy reform programs.
Civil conflict, cash transfers, and child nutrition in Yemen
Ecker, Olivier; Al-Malk, Afnan; Maystadt, Jean-François. Article in press
Ecker, Olivier; Al-Malk, Afnan; Maystadt, Jean-François. Article in press
DOI : 10.1086/726294
Abstract | View
The most dramatic outcomes of protracted civil conflict include increased malnutrition among children and the resulting consequences for lifelong health and prosperity. Little is known about how to mitigate the nutritional impact of conflict. Understanding the potential of social protection measures is particularly important when the risk of intense armed conflict is high. We use quarterly panel data from Yemen to estimate the impact of civil conflict on child nutrition and the effect of unconditional cash transfers in mitigating the adverse nutritional impact. The results show that a one-standard-deviation increase in armed conflict intensity reduces children’s weight-for-height z-scores by 9.6%, on average. We also find that the studied cash transfer program mitigates the estimated nutritional impact by 42.4%. Our analysis suggests that unconditional cash transfers can be an effective development policy tool to curb rising acute child malnutrition in Yemen.
Made in Africa: How to make local agricultural machinery manufacturing thrive
Daum, Thomas; Adegbola, Ygué Patrice; Kamau, Geoffrey; Kergna, Alpha Oumar; Daudu, Christogonus; Adebowale, Wahab Akeem; Adegbola, Carine; Bett, Charles; Mulinge, Wellington; Zossou, Roch Cedrique; Nientao, Abdoulaye; Kirui, Oliver; Oluwole, Fatunbi Abiodun . Article in press
Daum, Thomas; Adegbola, Ygué Patrice; Kamau, Geoffrey; Kergna, Alpha Oumar; Daudu, Christogonus; Adebowale, Wahab Akeem; Adegbola, Carine; Bett, Charles; Mulinge, Wellington; Zossou, Roch Cedrique; Nientao, Abdoulaye; Kirui, Oliver; Oluwole, Fatunbi Abiodun . Article in press
DOI : 10.1002/jid.3845
Abstract | View
Manufacturing has the potential to drive economic growth, job creation and poverty reduction, but African manufacturers face challenges in competing with global markets. Agricultural machinery manufacturing may be one niche where African manufacturers can succeed. This paper examines the challenges and opportunities facing local agricultural manufacturers in Africa based on a survey of 386 manufacturers in four countries and qualitative methods. Results show that small, dedicated entrepreneurs have created vibrant local machinery markets. These manufacturers have several comparative advantages, in particular, the ability to develop machinery adapted to local agroecological conditions but face challenges related to financing, human resources, utilities, raw materials, production equipment and the regulatory environment. The paper offers recommendations on how to support local manufacturers to make “Made in Africa” the first choice for African farmers and agro-food processors.
Cluster-based agricultural development: A comparison between China and Africa
Zhang, Xiaobo. 2023
Zhang, Xiaobo. 2023
DOI : 10.22434/IFAMR2022.0041
Abstract | View
Clusters for high-value crops are ubiquitous in China and in African countries. Drawing from three case studies (potato cluster in China, medicinal and aromatic cluster in Egypt, and dates cluster in Tunisia), this chapter discusses the major challenges facing cluster development and the roles of different agents (e.g. entrepreneurs, business associations, and local governments). Cluster development involves supply-side or demand-side bottlenecks along the way, which are beyond the capacity of individual enterprises. Whether a cluster can develop to the next stage depends crucially upon whether the bottlenecks can be resolved. Because the bottlenecks are context- and temporal-specific, it would be impossible for a planner or outsider donor to prescribe a one-size-fits-all intervention to overcome all the binding constraints. Instead, local elites, such as business leaders and local officials, can play a greater role in identifying the emerging bottlenecks and figuring out indigenous solutions. In China, because local governments have an embedded interest in promoting local economic development, they are keen to provide local public goods or initiate joint actions to address the successive binding constraints and facilitate cluster development. By comparison, the role of the local government is more muted in Africa, limiting the growth potentials of agricultural clusters.
The Russia-Ukraine war: Implications for global and regional food security and potential policy responses
Abay, Kibrom A.; Breisinger, Clemens; Glauber, Joseph W.; Kurdi, Sikandra; Laborde Debucquet, David; Siddig, Khalid. 2023
Abay, Kibrom A.; Breisinger, Clemens; Glauber, Joseph W.; Kurdi, Sikandra; Laborde Debucquet, David; Siddig, Khalid. 2023
DOI : 10.1016/j.gfs.2023.100675
Abstract | View
This paper analyzes the implications of the Russian-Ukraine war on global and regional food security. We start with a global vulnerability analysis to identify most vulnerable regions and countries. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is particularly vulnerable to trade shocks because of its high food import dependence. Thus, we provide descriptive evidence characterizing how food systems and policies impact vulnerability to the price shock in selected MENA countries: Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen. Within these countries, we show that the crisis will differentially impact poor and non-poor households as well as rural and urban households. Although the absolute level of food insecurity may still be higher in rural areas where larger numbers of poor households are located, urban poor are likely to suffer most because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and associated hikes in food prices, especially in those countries where social protection and food subsidies are missing. We review lessons from previous food crises and identify actions needed to take (and to avoid) to protect most vulnerable countries and households in the short-term while also highlighting long-term policy options to diversify food, fertilizer and energy production and trade.
How resilience innovations in food supply chains are revolutionizing logistics, wholesale trade, and farm services in developing countries
Reardon, Thomas; Vos, Rob. 2023
Reardon, Thomas; Vos, Rob. 2023
DOI : 10.22434/IFAMR2022.0138
Abstract | View
Developing country food supply chains have been pummeled by a series (and often a confluence) of shocks over the past several decades, including the Russia-Ukraine war, COVID-19, climate shocks from hurricanes to floods to droughts, animal and plant diseases, an intensification of road banditry and local conflicts, and overlaying all these, deep transformation in markets themselves with new requirements for quality and food safety. Yet supply chains have been largely resilient, adapting and bouncing back in surprising ways. We show that this has often involves deep ‘pivoting’ by one segment or one value chain, and ‘co-pivoting’ by another to facilitate the former’s pivot. We present a conceptual framework and then illustrate with a variety of examples from Africa and Asia, such as pivoting toward e-commerce by Asian retailers and co-pivoting by delivery intermediaries; pivoting toward quality horticultural production by African and Asian farmers and co-pivoting by mobile outsource services for farming and marketing; and building of redundant ports to protect rice milling operations from climate shocks in Asia by agribusiness and logistic firms. The paper provides implications for policy to facilitate these adaptions and for resilience strategies of agribusiness firms.
Terrorism and inbound tourism in Egypt: Economy-wide and distributional impacts
Elshennawy, Abeer; Siddig, Khalid. 2023
Elshennawy, Abeer; Siddig, Khalid. 2023
DOI : 10.1111/rode.12985
COVID-19 and food insecurity in Africa: A review of the emerging empirical evidence
Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr.; Nshakira-Rukundo, Emmanuel; Gebrekidan, Bisrat Haile. 2023
Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr.; Nshakira-Rukundo, Emmanuel; Gebrekidan, Bisrat Haile. 2023
DOI : 10.1093/erae/jbad008
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The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) risks rolling back many of the efforts and global successes recorded in reducing poverty and food insecurity. We undertake a systematic search and review of the growing microeconomic literature on the association between COVID-19 and food insecurity in Africa, discussing its implications for food policy and research. Furthermore, we review the various coping strategies households employ to build resilience to COVID-19. The evidence indicates that COVID-19 is associated with an increase in food insecurity both ex-ante and ex-durante. Given the covariate nature of COVID-19 and associated control mechanisms, current evidence is short of providing clear causal learning. We provide some potential interesting areas where future efforts can be geared to improve learning on the relationship between COVID-19, food insecurity, and building resilience to shocks.
Revisiting poverty trends and the role of social protection systems in Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic
Abay, Kibrom A.; Yonzan, Nishant; Kurdi, Sikandra; Tafere, Kibrom. 2023
Abay, Kibrom A.; Yonzan, Nishant; Kurdi, Sikandra; Tafere, Kibrom. 2023
DOI : 10.1093/jae/ejac041
Abstract | View
Quantifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty in Africa has been as difficult as predicting the path of the pandemic, mainly due to data limitations. The advent of new data sources, including national accounts and phone survey data, provides an opportunity for a thorough reassessment of the impact of the pandemic and the subsequent expansion of social protection systems on the evolution of poverty in Africa. In this paper, we combine per capita GDP growth from national accounts with data from High-Frequency Phone Surveys for several countries to estimate the net impact of the pandemic on poverty. We find that the pandemic has increased poverty in Africa by 1.5 to 1.7 percentage points in 2020, relatively smaller than early estimates and projections. We also find that countries affected by Fragility, Conflict and Violence experienced the greatest increases in poverty, about 2.1 percentage points in 2020. Furthermore, we assess and synthesize empirical evidence on the role that social protection systems played in mitigating the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis in Africa. We review social protection responses in various African countries, mainly focusing on the impact of these programs and effectiveness of targeting systems. Although the evidence base on the protective role of social protection programs during the pandemic remains scarce, we highlight important findings on the impacts of these programs while also uncovering some vulnerabilities in social protection programming in Africa. We finally draw important lessons related to the delivery, targeting and impact of various social protection programs launched in Africa in response to the pandemic.
Social protection amidst social upheaval: Examining the impact of a multi-faceted program for ultra-poor households in Yemen
Brune, Lasse; Karlan, Dean; Kurdi, Sikandra; Udry, Christopher R.. 2022
Brune, Lasse; Karlan, Dean; Kurdi, Sikandra; Udry, Christopher R.. 2022
DOI : 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102780
Linkages between GRACE water storage, hydrologic extremes, and climate teleconnections in major African aquifers
Scanlon, Bridget R.; Rateb, Ashraf; Anyamba, Assaf; Kebede, Seifu; McDonald, Alan M.; Xie, Hua. 2022
Scanlon, Bridget R.; Rateb, Ashraf; Anyamba, Assaf; Kebede, Seifu; McDonald, Alan M.; Xie, Hua. 2022
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/ac3bfc
Abstract | View
Water resources management is a critical issue in Africa where many regions are subjected to sequential droughts and floods. The objective of our work was to assess spatiotemporal variability in water storage and related controls (climate, human intervention) in major African aquifers and consider approaches toward more sustainable development. Different approaches were used to track water storage, including GRACE/GRACE Follow On satellites for Total Water Storage (TWS); satellite altimetry for reservoir storage, MODIS satellites for vegetation indices, and limited ground-based monitoring. Results show that declining trends in TWS (60–73 km3 over the 18 yr GRACE record) were restricted to aquifers in northern Africa, controlled primarily by irrigation water use in the Nubian and NW Saharan aquifers. Rising TWS trends were found in aquifers in western Africa (23–49 km3), attributed to increased recharge from land use change and cropland expansion. Interannual variability dominated TWS variability in eastern and southern Africa, controlled primarily by climate extremes. Climate teleconnections, particularly El Nino Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole, strongly controlled droughts and floods in eastern and southern Africa. Huge aquifer storage in northern Africa suggests that the recent decadal storage declines should not impact the regional aquifers but may affect local conditions. Increasing groundwater levels in western Africa will need to be managed because of locally rising groundwater flooding. More climate-resilient water management can be accomplished in eastern and southern Africa by storing water from wet to dry climate cycles. Accessing the natural water storage provided by aquifers in Africa is the obvious way to manage the variability between droughts and floods.
Twenty-five years of Living Under Contract: Contract farming and agrarian change in the developing world
Vicol, Mark; Fold, Niels; Hambloch, Caroline; Narayanan, Sudha; Niño, Helena Pérez. 2022
Vicol, Mark; Fold, Niels; Hambloch, Caroline; Narayanan, Sudha; Niño, Helena Pérez. 2022
DOI : 10.1111/joac.12471
Abstract | View
The expansion of contract farming schemes through regions of the developing world in the era of the globalization of agriculture raises questions that are central to the study of agrarian political economy. Contract farming has extended the footprint of commodity production and integrated land and labour not otherwise captured in forms of direct production and marketing. 25 years after the publication of Living Under Contract: Contract Farming and Agrarian Transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa, a foundational collection edited by Peter Little and Michael Watts, it is necessary to take stock of the most prominent developments in the practice of contract farming and in the political economy literature studying it. The ultimate contribution of Living Under Contract was framing contract farming as expressing the unevenness of power relations in agriculture and grounding it in specific political, historical and social contexts that were not examined in the mainstream accounts. This introduction to the special issue revisits the questions that have remained relevant or re-emerged in the political economy literature on contract farming; it raises new questions that reflect contemporary developments and it explains how the papers in this collection contribute to the expansion of the theoretical and empirical horizons of the research on contemporary contract farming in low and middle-income countries.
Modeling conflict impact and postconflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen
Mukashov, Askar; Breisinger, Clemens; Engelke, Wilfried; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2022
Mukashov, Askar; Breisinger, Clemens; Engelke, Wilfried; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2022
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecosys.2022.100940
Characteristics and birth outcomes of pregnant adolescents compared to older women: An analysis of individual level data from 140,000 mothers from 20 RCTs
Akseer, Nadia; Keats, Emily Catherine; Thurairajah, Pravheen; Cousens, Simon N.; Betran, Ana Pilar; Oaks, Brietta M.; Huybregts, Lieven. 2022
Akseer, Nadia; Keats, Emily Catherine; Thurairajah, Pravheen; Cousens, Simon N.; Betran, Ana Pilar; Oaks, Brietta M.; Huybregts, Lieven. 2022
DOI : 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101309
Abstract | View
Background: Adolescence is a critical period of maturation when nutrient needs are high, especially among adolescents entering pregnancy. Using individual-level data from 140,000 participants, we examined socioeconomic, nutrition, and pregnancy and birth outcomes for adolescent mothers (10–19 years) compared to older mothers in low and middle-income countries.
Methods: This study was conducted between March 16, 2018 and May 25, 2021. Data were obtained from 20 randomised controlled trials of micronutrient supplementation in pregnancy. Stratified analyses were conducted by age (10–14 years, 15–17 years, 18–19 years, 20–29 years, 30–39 years, 40+ years) and geographical region (Africa, Asia). Crude and confounder-adjusted means, prevalence and relative risks of pregnancy, nutrition and birth outcomes were estimated using multivariable linear and log-binomial regression models with 95% confidence intervals.
Findings: Adolescent mothers comprised 31.6% of our data. Preterm birth, small-for-gestational age (SGA), low birthweight (LBW) and newborn mortality followed a U-shaped trend in which prevalence was highest among the youngest mothers (10–14 years) and then reduced gradually, but increased again for older mothers (40+ years). When compared to mothers aged 20–29 years, there was a 23% increased risk of preterm birth, a 60% increased risk of perinatal mortality, a 63% increased risk of neonatal mortality, a 28% increased risk of LBW, and a 22% increased risk of SGA among mothers 10–14 years. Mothers 40+ years experienced a 22% increased risk of preterm birth and a 103% increased risk of stillbirth when compared to the 20–29 year group.
Interpretation: The youngest and oldest mothers suffer most from adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes. Policy and programming agendas should consider both biological and socioeconomic/environmental factors when targeting these populations.
Methods: This study was conducted between March 16, 2018 and May 25, 2021. Data were obtained from 20 randomised controlled trials of micronutrient supplementation in pregnancy. Stratified analyses were conducted by age (10–14 years, 15–17 years, 18–19 years, 20–29 years, 30–39 years, 40+ years) and geographical region (Africa, Asia). Crude and confounder-adjusted means, prevalence and relative risks of pregnancy, nutrition and birth outcomes were estimated using multivariable linear and log-binomial regression models with 95% confidence intervals.
Findings: Adolescent mothers comprised 31.6% of our data. Preterm birth, small-for-gestational age (SGA), low birthweight (LBW) and newborn mortality followed a U-shaped trend in which prevalence was highest among the youngest mothers (10–14 years) and then reduced gradually, but increased again for older mothers (40+ years). When compared to mothers aged 20–29 years, there was a 23% increased risk of preterm birth, a 60% increased risk of perinatal mortality, a 63% increased risk of neonatal mortality, a 28% increased risk of LBW, and a 22% increased risk of SGA among mothers 10–14 years. Mothers 40+ years experienced a 22% increased risk of preterm birth and a 103% increased risk of stillbirth when compared to the 20–29 year group.
Interpretation: The youngest and oldest mothers suffer most from adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes. Policy and programming agendas should consider both biological and socioeconomic/environmental factors when targeting these populations.
Perspective: Food environment research priorities for Africa: Lessons from the Africa food environment research network
Laar, Amos K.; Addo, Phyllis; Aryeetey, Richmond; Agyemang, Charles; Zotor, Francis; Covic, Namukolo. 2022
Laar, Amos K.; Addo, Phyllis; Aryeetey, Richmond; Agyemang, Charles; Zotor, Francis; Covic, Namukolo. 2022
DOI : 10.1093/advances/nmac019
Abstract | View
Over the last 2 decades, many African countries have undergone dietary and nutrition transitions fueled by globalization, rapid urbanization, and development. These changes have altered African food environments and, subsequently, dietary behaviors, including food acquisition and consumption. Dietary patterns associated with the nutrition transition have contributed to Africa's complex burden of malnutrition—obesity and other diet-related noncommunicable diseases (DR-NCDs)—along with persistent food insecurity and undernutrition. Available evidence links unhealthy or obesogenic food environments (including those that market and offer energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods and beverages) with suboptimal diets and associated adverse health outcomes. Elsewhere, governments have responded with policies to improve food environments. However, in Africa, the necessary research and policy action have received insufficient attention. Contextual evidence to motivate, enable, and create supportive food environments in Africa for better population health is urgently needed. In November 2020, the Measurement, Evaluation, Accountability, and Leadership Support for Noncommunicable Diseases Prevention Project (MEALS4NCDs) convened the first Africa Food Environment Research Network Meeting (FERN2020). This 3-d virtual meeting brought researchers from around the world to deliberate on future directions and research priorities related to improving food environments and nutrition across the African continent. The stakeholders shared experiences, best practices, challenges, and opportunities for improving the healthfulness of food environments and related policies in low- and middle-income countries. In this article, we summarize the proceedings and research priorities identified in the meeting to advance the food environment research agenda in Africa, and thus contribute to the promotion of healthier food environments to prevent DR-NCDs, and other forms of malnutrition.
Plot size and sustainable input intensification in smallholder irrigated agriculture: Evidence from Egypt
Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelfattah, Lina Alaaeldin; El-Enbaby, Hoda; Mahmoud, Mai; Breisinger, Clemens. 2022
Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelfattah, Lina Alaaeldin; El-Enbaby, Hoda; Mahmoud, Mai; Breisinger, Clemens. 2022
DOI : 10.1111/agec.12736
Abstract | View
Increasing population pressure and population density in many African countries are inducing land scarcity and land constraints. Tightening land constraints are expected to trigger various responses, including agricultural intensification, as postulated by the Boserup hypothesis. The relevance of the Boserup hypothesis in irrigated agriculture, and in contexts where application of improved inputs is high, remains largely unexplored. Furthermore, while much of the debate on the topic in Africa has focused on how to boost agricultural intensification, there is scant evidence on whether evolving agricultural intensification practices in some parts of Africa are sustainable. In this article, we investigate the implication of land size (at the plot and farm level) on agricultural intensification. Our analysis sheds light on the relevance of the Boserup hypothesis in the context of Egypt, where irrigation dominates agriculture and input application rates are high relative to global standards. We also examine whether evolving agricultural intensification practices induced by land scarcity are agronomically appropriate. Our findings show that smaller plot and farm sizes are associated with higher application of agricultural inputs, mainly nitrogen fertilizers. Importantly, small plot size is associated with overapplication of nitrogen fertilizer relative to crop-specific agronomic recommendations. In addition, smaller plots are associated with higher rates of labor application and lower rates of mechanization.
Balancing national economic policy outcomes for sustainable development
Basheer, Mohammed; Nechifor, Victor; Calzadilla, Alvaro; Ringler, Claudia; Hulme, David; Harou, Julien J.. 2022
Basheer, Mohammed; Nechifor, Victor; Calzadilla, Alvaro; Ringler, Claudia; Hulme, David; Harou, Julien J.. 2022
DOI : 10.1038/s41467-022-32415-9
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The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim at jointly improving economic, social, and environmental outcomes for human prosperity and planetary health. However, designing national economic policies that support advancement across multiple Sustainable Development Goals is hindered by the complexities of multi-sector economies and often conflicting policies. To address this, we introduce a national-scale design framework that can enable policymakers to sift through complex, non-linear, multi-sector policy spaces to identify efficient policy portfolios that balance economic, social, and environmental goals. The framework combines economy-wide sustainability simulation and artificial intelligence-driven multiobjective, multi-SDG policy search and machine learning. The framework can support multi-sector, multi-actor policy deliberation to screen efficient policy portfolios. We demonstrate the utility of the framework for a case study of Egypt by identifying policy portfolios that achieve efficient mixes of poverty and inequality reduction, economic growth, and climate change mitigation. The results show that integrated policy strategies can help achieve sustainable development while balancing adverse economic, social, and political impacts of reforms.
Labor productivity growth and industrialization in Africa
McMillan, Margaret S.; Zeufack, Albert. 2022
McMillan, Margaret S.; Zeufack, Albert. 2022
DOI : 10.1257/jep.36.1.3
The CADDP 10 per cent target - Still pursued by African leaders?
Benin, Samuel. 2022
Benin, Samuel. 2022
Abstract | View
The 2003 Maputo Declaration aimed at boosting African agriculture requires governments to make difficult decisions on budget priorities. Furthermore, tracking the progress of the initiative presents problems. Our author looks at these and other challenges the Maputo Declaration is facing. And against the background of a continuing decline in government expenditure on agriculture on the continent, he argues that new evidence on expenditure outcomes is required to get governments to reverse the trend.
The processed food revolution in African food systems and the double burden of malnutrition
Reardon, Thomas; Tschirley, David; Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O.; Awokuse, Titus; Fanzo, Jessica; Minten, Bart; Vos, Rob. 2021
Reardon, Thomas; Tschirley, David; Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O.; Awokuse, Titus; Fanzo, Jessica; Minten, Bart; Vos, Rob. 2021
DOI : 10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100466
Abstract | View
African consumers have purchased increasing amounts of processed food over the past 50 years. The opportunity cost of time of women and men has increased as more of them work outside the home, driving them to buy processed food and food prepared away from home to save arduous home-processing and preparation labor. In the past several decades, this trend has accelerated with a surge on the supply side of the processing sector and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and large private companies making massive aggregate investments. Packaged, industrialized, ultra-processed foods and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a growing proportion of the processed food consumed. Also, in the past several decades, overweight and obesity have joined the long-standing high levels of stunting and wasting among children and extreme thinness among women of childbearing age. Together these phenomena have formed a double burden of malnutrition (DBM). The DBM has emerged as an important health problem in sub-Saharan Africa. The rise of the DBM and the increase in ultra-processed food consumption are linked. Policy makers face a dilemma. On the one hand, purchases of processed food are driven by long-term factors, such as urbanization, increased income, and employment changes, and thus policy cannot change the pursuit of convenience and labor-saving food. Moreover, much processed food, like packaged milk, is a boon to nutrition, and the processed food system is a major source of jobs for women. On the other hand, the portion (some 10–30%) of processed food that is ultra-processed is a public health challenge, and policy must address its detrimental effects on disease burden. The global experience suggests that double duty actions are most important as are selected policies focused on healthy weaning foods for addressing stunting and taxes on SSBs, nutrition labeling, and other measures can steer consumers away from unhealthy ultra-processed foods to addressing obesity and possibly child nutrition and stunting. We recommend that African governments consider these policy options, but note that the current extreme fragmentation of the processing sector, consisting of vast numbers of informal SMEs in sub-Saharan Africa, and the limited administrative/implementation capacity of many African governments require pursuing this path only gradually.
Measuring women’s decisionmaking: Indicator choice and survey design experiments from cash and food transfer evaluations in Ecuador, Uganda and Yemen
Peterman, Amber; Schwab, Benjamin; Roy, Shalini; Hidrobo, Melissa; Gilligan, Daniel O.. 2021
Peterman, Amber; Schwab, Benjamin; Roy, Shalini; Hidrobo, Melissa; Gilligan, Daniel O.. 2021
DOI : 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105387
Abstract | View
Women’s decisionmaking indicators are widely used in social science research, though insufficient attention is given to measurement issues. We interrogate variations in indicator construction using survey experiments undertaken in the context of transfer programs in Ecuador, Yemen, and Uganda. Findings show that small variations can lead to meaningful differences in how women are ranked on decisionmaking, as well as change conclusions on whether programs have significant impacts on decisionmaking. Results also raise questions as to how well indicators capture dimensions of empowerment as they are not consistently associated with measures of women’s status. Finally, in the context of Uganda, results indicate that measures are susceptible to social desirability bias, however further investigation is needed to assess this potential. We conclude that choices made in indicator construction matter and in the absence of standardized guidance, current practice is ad-hoc. Further, despite the wide use of these indicators, evaluating program success on women’s empowerment solely through standard decisionmaking indicators is not recommended. Finally, measurement innovation utilizing context-specific understanding of intra-household dynamics is needed.
Institutional mistrust and child vaccination coverage in Africa
Stoop, Nik; Hirvonen, Kalle; Maystadt, Jean-Francois. 2021
Stoop, Nik; Hirvonen, Kalle; Maystadt, Jean-Francois. 2021
DOI : 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-004595
Abstract | View
Despite considerable improvements in vaccination coverage over the last decade, half of the world’s unvaccinated and undervaccinated children are located in Africa. The role of institutional trust in explaining vaccination gaps has been highlighted in several qualitative reports but so far has only been quantified in a small number of high-income countries.
Food trade openness and enhancement of food security: Partial equilibrium model simulations for selected countries
Fathelrahman, Eihab; Davies, Stephen; Muhammad, Safdar. 2021
Fathelrahman, Eihab; Davies, Stephen; Muhammad, Safdar. 2021
DOI : 10.3390/su13084107
Abstract | View
This research measured the welfare impacts of food trade liberalization in India, Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) using the partial equilibrium model—World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS). Macroeconomic settings, domestic policy objectives, and food security indicator data are used to assess the implications of the simulations on food availability and stability. Simulation results for India, Egypt, and Pakistan indicate annual welfare gains (consumer surplus) of 2571, 340, and 25 million USD, respectively, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE have gains of 14 and 17 million USD. Results show that tariff elimination would have wide-ranging welfare impacts across food commodities within these countries. Moreover, reductions for specific commodities directly relevant to food energy and protein availability would have a greater direct impact on the poor. Lowering the highest tariffs on those commodities might raise the real incomes of more than 350 million persons by 7.5% or more and could create shifts in consumption towards more diversified and nutritionally sound diets.
The nutritional benefits of cash transfers in humanitarian crises: Evidence from Yemen
Kurdi, Sikandra. 2021
Kurdi, Sikandra. 2021
DOI : 10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105664
Abstract | View
At the World Humanitarian Summit in 2016 the long-standing divide between humanitarian and development approaches was challenged with a call for responses that both meet immediate needs and protect human capital for eventual recovery. In this regard, the use of cash transfers in humanitarian settings is an emerging trend; however, it has been limited by a lack of evidence on how well cash transfers improve nutritional outcomes given the challenges of conducting rigorous evaluations in a crisis context. This study makes use of a cluster randomized control trial that was left in place when a pilot cash-plus intervention evolved during the civil conflict into a major program within the Yemen Emergency Crisis Response program. The results provide uniquely rigorous evidence of the potential for long-run nutritional benefits of cash transfers in humanitarian crisis settings. The “Cash for Nutrition” intervention provides cash transfers as well as nutritional training to targeted households with young children in Yemen in the context of what is considered the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Differences-in-differences estimates indicate that the intervention significantly increased purchases of non-staple foods which translated into large positive impacts on child dietary diversity scores. Impacts on consumption patterns and dietary diversity are significant for the full sample and strongest among the poorest tercile of households where the transfers are largest relative to baseline household food budgets. In this poorest sub-group we also find large and statistically significant program impacts on height-for-age z-scores of 0.3. These results support the increased use of cash transfers and provide a benchmark for comparison with more traditional food distribution and supplementation strategies for supporting child nutrition in protracted crisis contexts.
The future of fish in Africa: Employment and investment opportunities
Chan, Chin Yee; Tran, Nhuong; Cheong, Kai Ching; Sulser, Timothy B.; Cohen, Philippa J.; Wiebe, Keith D.. 2021
Chan, Chin Yee; Tran, Nhuong; Cheong, Kai Ching; Sulser, Timothy B.; Cohen, Philippa J.; Wiebe, Keith D.. 2021
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0261615
Abstract | View
One of the most pressing challenges facing food systems in Africa is ensuring availability of a healthy and sustainable diet to 2.4 billion people by 2050. The continent has struggled with development challenges, particularly chronic food insecurity and pervasive poverty. In Africa’s food systems, fish and other aquatic foods play a multifaceted role in generating income, and providing a critical source of essential micronutrients. To date, there are no estimates of investment and potential returns for domestic fish production in Africa. To contribute to policy debates about the future of fish in Africa, we applied the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agriculture Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to explore two Pan-African scenarios for fish sector growth: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a high-growth scenario for capture fisheries and aquaculture with accompanying strong gross domestic product growth (HIGH). Post-model analysis was used to estimate employment and aquaculture investment requirements for the sector in Africa. Africa’s fish sector is estimated to support 20.7 million jobs in 2030, and 21.6 million by 2050 under the BAU. Approximately 2.6 people will be employed indirectly along fisheries and aquaculture value chains for every person directly employed in the fish production stage. Under the HIGH scenario, total employment in Africa’s fish food system will reach 58.0 million jobs, representing 2.4% of total projected population in Africa by 2050. Aquaculture production value is estimated to achieve US$ 3.3 billion and US$ 20.4 billion per year under the BAU and HIGH scenarios by 2050, respectively. Farm-gate investment costs for the three key inputs (fish feeds, farm labor, and fish seed) to achieve the aquaculture volumes projected by 2050 are estimated at US$ 1.8 billion per year under the BAU and US$ 11.6 billion per year under the HIGH scenario. Sustained investments are critical to sustain capture fisheries and support aquaculture growth for food system transformation towards healthier diets.
Ex post adjustment for measurement error in stunting calculations: An illustration from Egypt
Figueroa, Jose Luis; Kurdi, Sikandra. 2020
Figueroa, Jose Luis; Kurdi, Sikandra. 2020
DOI : 10.1017/S1368980019003100
Is consanguinity an impediment to child development?
Mete, Cem; Bossavie, Laurent; Giles, John; Alderman, Harold. 2020
Mete, Cem; Bossavie, Laurent; Giles, John; Alderman, Harold. 2020
DOI : 10.1080/00324728.2019.1699942
Agricultural growth and sex-disaggregated employment in Africa: Future perspectives under different investment scenarios
Frija, Aymen; Chebil, Ali; Mottaleb, Khondoker Abdul; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Dhehibi, Boubaker. 2020
Frija, Aymen; Chebil, Ali; Mottaleb, Khondoker Abdul; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Dhehibi, Boubaker. 2020
DOI : 10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100353
Abstract | View
Literature is scanty on how public agricultural investments can help reducing the impact of future challenges such as climate change and population pressure on national economies. The objective of this study is to assess the medium and long-term effects of alternative agricultural research and development investment scenarios on male and female employment in 14 African countries. We first estimate the effects of agricultural investment scenarios on the overall GDP growth of a given country using partial and general equilibrium models. Secondly, using employment elasticities to GDP growth, we estimate the impact of GDP growth on overall employment in the economy. Results show that, increased investments in agriculture could generate higher overall employment and reduce gender disparities in labor participation. In 8 out of 14 sampled countries, female employment increased more than male employment in response to agricultural investments. Investment in infrastructure had higher impact on female employment growth compared to productivity scenarios.
Nutritional training in a humanitarian context: Evidence from a cluster randomized trial
Kurdi, Sikandra; Figueroa, Jose Luis; Ibrahim, Hosam. 2020
Kurdi, Sikandra; Figueroa, Jose Luis; Ibrahim, Hosam. 2020
DOI : 10.1111/mcn.12973
Abstract | View
Behavioural change communication interventions have been shown to be effective at improving infant and young child nutrition knowledge and practices. However, evidence in humanitarian response contexts is scarce. Using data on secondary outcomes of breastfeeding, water treatment, and knowledge from a cluster randomized control trial of the Yemen Cash for Nutrition programme's impact on child nutritional status, this paper shows that the programme significantly improved knowledge and practices for poor women with young children in the pilot districts. The intervention consisted of cash transfers and monthly group nutrition education sessions led by locally recruited community health volunteers. Data are based on self‐reports by participants. Estimating impacts among all 1,945 women in 190 clusters randomly assigned to treatment versus control and controlling for baseline levels and community characteristic and adjusting for noncompliance with randomization, the programme increased the probability of breastfeeding initiation within the first hour after delivery by 15.6% points (p < .05; control = 74.4% and treatment = 83.6%), the probability of exclusive breastfeeding during the first 6 months by 14.4% points (control = 13.5% and treatment = 25.3%), the probability of households treating water consumed by adults by 16.7% points (p < .01; control = 13.9% and treatment = 23.4%), and treating water consumed by children under two by 10.3% points (p < .10; control = 31.2% and treatment = 37.9%). Impacts on knowledge and breastfeeding are similar for both literate and illiterate women, and water treatment impacts are significantly larger for literate women. This study was registered at 3ie (RIDIE‐STUDY‐ID‐5b4eff881b29a) and funded by the Nordic Trust Fund and Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research programme on Policies, Institutions, and Markets.
Multiple factors influence the consistency of cropland datasets in Africa
Wei, Yanbing; Lu, Miao; Wu, Wenbin; Ru, Yating. 2020
Wei, Yanbing; Lu, Miao; Wu, Wenbin; Ru, Yating. 2020
DOI : 10.1016/j.jag.2020.102087
Abstract | View
Accurate geo-information of cropland is critical for food security strategy development and grain production management, especially in Africa continent where most countries are food-insecure. Over the past decades, a series of African cropland maps have been derived from remotely-sensed data, existing comparison studies have shown that inconsistencies with statistics and discrepancies among these products are considerable. Yet, there is a knowledge gap about the factors that influence their consistency. The aim of this study is thus to estimate the consistency of five widely-used cropland datasets (MODIS Collection 5, GlobCover 2009, GlobeLand30, CCI-LC 2010, and Unified Cropland Layer) in Africa, and to explore the effects of several limiting factors (landscape fragmentation, climate and agricultural management) on spatial consistency. The results show that total cropland area for Africa derived from GlobeLand30 has the best fitness with FAO statistics, followed by MODIS Collection 5. GlobCover 2009, CCI-LC 2010, and Unified Cropland Layer have poor performances as indicated by larger deviations from statistics. In terms of spatial consistency, disagreement is about 37.9 % at continental scale, and the disparate proportion even exceeds 50 % in approximately 1/3 of the countries at national scale. We further found that there is a strong and significant correlation between spatial agreement and cropland fragmentation, suggesting that regions with higher landscape fragmentation generally have larger disparities. It is also noticed that places with better consistency are mainly distributed in regions with favorable natural environments and sufficient agricultural management such as well-developed irrigated technology. Proportions of complete agreement are thus located in favorable climate zones including Hot-summer Mediterranean climate (Csa), Subtropical highland climate (Cwb), and Temperate Mediterranean climate (Csb). The level of complete agreement keeps rising as the proportion of irrigated cropland increases. Spatial agreement among these datasets has the most significant relationship with cropland fragmentation, and a relatively small association with irrigation area, followed by climate conditions. These results can provide some insights into understanding how different factors influence the consistency of cropland datasets, and making an appropriate selection when using these datasets in different regions. We suggest that future cropland mapping activities should put more effort in those regions with significant disagreement in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Long-term optimization of regional power sector development: Potential for cooperation in the Eastern Nile region?
Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam; Ringler, Claudia. 2020
Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam; Ringler, Claudia. 2020
DOI : 10.1016/j.energy.2020.117703
Abstract | View
This paper develops a regional TIMES modelling framework for the electricity sector of the Eastern Nile Basin region, including Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, to assess the potential of energy trading for cross-border collaboration in this rapidly growing sector. Four alternative scenarios are developed for the 2014–2050 period to assess national and regional benefits of alternative energy development strategies. The study finds that electricity trading scenarios out-perform a reference scenario that assumes no energy trading, lowering systems cost by 4.5–7.2%. Total systems costs are lower, even when transmission costs for trade are considered. Costs are also lower with increased generation from renewables compared to investments without regional trade. Investing in renewables has important co-benefits, such as improved energy security and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Supporting energy trade not only reduces systems costs, but can also strengthen cooperation in the region, as reflected in the energy trading efforts of the East African Power Pool and the transboundary collaboration efforts of the Nile Basin Initiative.
Inequality of opportunity in earnings and assets in Egypt
Galal, Rami; El-Enbaby, Hoda. 2020
Galal, Rami; El-Enbaby, Hoda. 2020
DOI : 10.1080/00036846.2020.1731409
Evaluation of linear growth at higher altitudes
Baye, Kaleab; Hirvonen, Kalle. 2020
Baye, Kaleab; Hirvonen, Kalle. 2020
DOI : 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2020.2386
Climate-induced migration and unemployment in middle-income Africa
Mueller, Valerie; Gray, Clark; Hopping, Douglas. 2020
Mueller, Valerie; Gray, Clark; Hopping, Douglas. 2020
DOI : 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102183
SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis
Post, Lori; Marogi, Emily; Moss, Charles B.; Murphy, Robert Leo; Ison, Michael G.; Resnick, Danielle. Toronto, Canada 2020
Post, Lori; Marogi, Emily; Moss, Charles B.; Murphy, Robert Leo; Ison, Michael G.; Resnick, Danielle. Toronto, Canada 2020
DOI : 10.2196/25830
Abstract | View
Background: The COVID-19 global pandemic has disrupted the lives of millions and forced countries to devise public health policies to reduce the pace of transmission. In the Middle East and North Africa, falling oil prices, disparities in wealth and public health infrastructure, and large refugee populations have significantly increased the COVID-19 disease burden. In light of these exacerbating factors, public health surveillance is particularly necessary to help leaders understand and implement effective disease control policies to reduce Sars-CoV-2 persistence and transmission.
Objective: The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics, in combination with traditional surveillance, for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic speed, acceleration, jerk and persistence, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and to better inform those who are managing the pandemic. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed.
Methods: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 30 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the Middle East and North Africa as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel data model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R
Results: The regression Wald statistic is significant (χ^2 (5)=859.5, P<.001). The Sargan test is not significant, failing to reject the validity of over identifying restrictions (χ^2 (294)= 16 P=.99). Countries with the highest cumulative caseload of the novel coronavirus include Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel with 530,380, 426,634, 342,202, and 303,109 cases respectively. Many of the smaller countries in MENA have higher infection rates than those countries with the highest caseloads. Oman has 33.3 new infections per 100,000 population while Bahrain has 12.1, Libya has 14, and Lebanon has 14.6. In order of most to least number of cumulative deaths since January 2020, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have 30,375, 10,254, 6,120, and 5,185 respectively. Israel, Bahrain, Lebanon, and Oman had the highest rates of COVID-19 persistence which are the number of new infections statistically related to new infections 7 days ago. Bahrain had positive speed, acceleration and jerk signaling the potential for explosive growth. Conclusions: Static and dynamic public health surveillance metrics provide a more complete picture of pandemic progression across countries in MENA. Static measures capture data at a given point in time such as infection rates and death rates. By including speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, public health officials may design policy with an eye to the future. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel all demonstrated the highest rate of infections, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence rates prompting public health leaders to increase prevention efforts.
Objective: The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics, in combination with traditional surveillance, for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic speed, acceleration, jerk and persistence, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and to better inform those who are managing the pandemic. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed.
Methods: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 30 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the Middle East and North Africa as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel data model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R
Results: The regression Wald statistic is significant (χ^2 (5)=859.5, P<.001). The Sargan test is not significant, failing to reject the validity of over identifying restrictions (χ^2 (294)= 16 P=.99). Countries with the highest cumulative caseload of the novel coronavirus include Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel with 530,380, 426,634, 342,202, and 303,109 cases respectively. Many of the smaller countries in MENA have higher infection rates than those countries with the highest caseloads. Oman has 33.3 new infections per 100,000 population while Bahrain has 12.1, Libya has 14, and Lebanon has 14.6. In order of most to least number of cumulative deaths since January 2020, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have 30,375, 10,254, 6,120, and 5,185 respectively. Israel, Bahrain, Lebanon, and Oman had the highest rates of COVID-19 persistence which are the number of new infections statistically related to new infections 7 days ago. Bahrain had positive speed, acceleration and jerk signaling the potential for explosive growth. Conclusions: Static and dynamic public health surveillance metrics provide a more complete picture of pandemic progression across countries in MENA. Static measures capture data at a given point in time such as infection rates and death rates. By including speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, public health officials may design policy with an eye to the future. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel all demonstrated the highest rate of infections, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence rates prompting public health leaders to increase prevention efforts.
Vegetation changes attributable to refugees in Africa coincide with agricultural deforestation
Maystadt, Jean-François; Mueller, Valerie; Van Den Hoek, Jamon; van Weezel, Stijn. 2020
Maystadt, Jean-François; Mueller, Valerie; Van Den Hoek, Jamon; van Weezel, Stijn. 2020
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7c
Abstract | View
The recent adoption of the Global Compact on Refugees formally recognizes not only the importance of supporting the nearly 26 million people who have sought asylum from conflict and persecution but also of easing the pressures on receiving areas and host countries. However, few countries may enforce the Compact out of concern over the economic or environmental repercussions of hosting refugees. We examine whether narratives of refugee-driven landscape change are empirically generalizable to continental Africa, which fosters 34% of all refugees. Estimates of the causal effects of the number of refugees—located in 493 camps distributed across 49 African countries—on vegetation from 2000 to 2016 are provided. Using a quasi-experimental design, we find refugees bear a small increase in vegetation condition while contributing to increased deforestation. Such a combination is mainly explained not by land clearance and massive biomass extraction but by agricultural expansion in refugee-hosting areas. A one percent increase in the number of refugees amplifies the transition from dominant forested areas to cropland by 1.4 percentage points. These findings suggest that changes in vegetation condition may ensue with the elevation of population-based constraints on food security.
Long-term optimization of Egypt’s power sector: Policy implications
Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam; Ringler, Claudia; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; ElDidi, Hagar; Breisinger, Clemens; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2019
Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam; Ringler, Claudia; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; ElDidi, Hagar; Breisinger, Clemens; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2019
DOI : 10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.158
Abstract | View
This paper presents an evaluation of energy supply strategies for Egypt’s power sector and identifiesprospects to meet rising electricity demand while addressing energy security and low-carbon devel-opment issues. We apply the TIMES energy system model to examine Egypt’s energy policy goals asreflected in Egypt’s Vision 2030, and specifically: (a) targeted power generation based on renewableenergy under two different scenarios; (b) targeted carbon dioxide (CO2) emission s’ mitigation towardlow-carbon society development; and (c) constraints on natural gas production for power generation.The quantitative results from the model suggest a need for diversification from predominantly naturalgas to a mix of renewable and conventional energy sources in order to improve energy security, reducedependency on fossil fuels, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, with the level of diversificationchanging with different policy options. Although total energy system cost is projected to increase theeffects on fossil-fuel dependency, diversity of energy supply-mix, marginal electricity generation price,and GHG mitigation indicate that it may be wise to target promotion of renewable energy for powergeneration and develop a low-carbon society
Energy subsidy reform for growth and equity in Egypt: The approach matters
Breisinger, Clemens; Mukashov, Askar; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2019
Breisinger, Clemens; Mukashov, Askar; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2019
DOI : 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.02.059
Abstract | View
Phasing out energy subsidies is high on the agenda of policymakers in several Middle Eastern and North African countries. The impact of such reform can vary widely depending on the country and policy. This paper contributes to the existing literature by examining the phasing out of energy subsidies in Egypt under alternative economic scenarios. In particular, we consider Egypt's short- and long-term economic adjustment under different assumptions on labor market flexibility, spending options of subsidy savings, and alternative social protection measures. Results from economy-wide model simulations suggest that energy subsidy cuts may hamper economic growth in the short term, but depending on the policy measure, will improve growth perspectives and household welfare in the longer term. Yet, findings also point to likely adverse impacts of the reform on household consumption in the short and longer run. To counteract such negative impacts, targeted social protection measures should be continued and scaled up in parallel with the phasing out of energy subsidies.
First foods: Diet quality among infants aged 6–23 months in 42 countries
Choudhury, Samira; Headey, Derek D.; Masters, William A.. 2019
Choudhury, Samira; Headey, Derek D.; Masters, William A.. 2019
DOI : 10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101762
Abstract | View
Diet quality is closely linked to child growth and development, especially among infants aged 6–23 months who need to complement breastmilk with the gradual introduction of nutrient-rich solid foods. This paper links Demographic and Health Survey data on infant feeding to household and environmental factors for 76,641 children in 42 low- and middle-income countries surveyed in 2006–2013, providing novel stylized facts about diets in early childhood. Multivariate regressions examine the associations of household socioeconomic characteristics and community level indicators of climate and infrastructure with dietary diversity scores (DDS). Results show strong support for an infant-feeding version of Bennett's Law, as wealthier households introduce more diverse foods at earlier ages, with additional positive effects of parental education, local infrastructure and more temperate agro-climatic conditions. Associations with consumption of specific nutrient-dense foods are less consistent. Our findings imply that while income growth is indeed an important driver of diversification, there are strong grounds to also invest heavily in women’s education and food environments to improve diet quality, while addressing the impacts of climate change on livelihoods and food systems. These results reveal systematic patterns in how first foods vary across developing countries, pointing to new opportunities for research towards nutrition-smart policies to improve children’s diets.
Raising the contribution of research to evidence based policy making in Africa
Badiane, Ousmane. 2019
Badiane, Ousmane. 2019
A moral economy of water: Charity wells in Egypt's Nile delta
ElDidi, Hagar; Corbera, Esteve. 2017
ElDidi, Hagar; Corbera, Esteve. 2017
DOI : 10.1111/dech.12286
Spice price spikes: Simulating impacts of saffron price volatility in gendered local economy-wide model
Filipski, Mateusz J.; Aboudrare, Abdellah; Lybbert, Travis J.; Taylor, J. Edward. 2017
Filipski, Mateusz J.; Aboudrare, Abdellah; Lybbert, Travis J.; Taylor, J. Edward. 2017
DOI : 10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.10.018
Effects of the 2008 flood on economic performance and food security in Yemen
Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Thiele, Rainer; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2016
Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Thiele, Rainer; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2016
DOI : 10.1111/disa.12147
The GCC countries RE-readiness: Strengths and gaps for development of renewable energy technologies
Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam; Hawila, Diala; Kennedy, Scott; Mezher, Toufic. 2016
Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam; Hawila, Diala; Kennedy, Scott; Mezher, Toufic. 2016
DOI : 10.1016/j.rser.2015.10.098
Climate change and economic growth: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis for Egypt
Elshennawy, Abeer; Robinson, Sherman; Willenbockel, Dirk. 2016
Elshennawy, Abeer; Robinson, Sherman; Willenbockel, Dirk. 2016
DOI : 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.10.008
The role of agriculture for economic development and gender in Iraq
Al-Haboby, Azhr; Breisinger, Clemens; Debowicz, Dario; El-Hakim, Abdul Hussein; Ferguson, Jenna; Telleria, Roberto; van Rheenen, Teunis. 2016
Al-Haboby, Azhr; Breisinger, Clemens; Debowicz, Dario; El-Hakim, Abdul Hussein; Ferguson, Jenna; Telleria, Roberto; van Rheenen, Teunis. 2016
DOI : 10.1353/jda.2016.0094
Harnessing the sun and wind for economic development?
Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Blohmke, Julian; Breisinger, Clemens; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2015
Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Blohmke, Julian; Breisinger, Clemens; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2015
DOI : 10.3390/su7067714
Who bears the costs of climate change? Evidence from Tunisia
Wiebelt, Manfred; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Breisinger, Clemens; Robertson, Richard D.. 2015
Wiebelt, Manfred; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Breisinger, Clemens; Robertson, Richard D.. 2015
DOI : 10.1353/jda.2015.0002
Costing alternative transfer modalities
Margolies, Amy; Hoddinott, John F.. 2015
Margolies, Amy; Hoddinott, John F.. 2015
DOI : 10.1080/19439342.2014.984745
Simulating economic growth effects on food and nutrition security in Yemen
Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier. 2014
Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier. 2014
DOI : 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.07.029
Economic impacts of climate change in Syria
Breisinger, Clemens; Zhu, Tingju; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Nelson, Gerald C.; Robertson, Richard D.; Funes, José; Verner, Dorte. 2013
Breisinger, Clemens; Zhu, Tingju; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Nelson, Gerald C.; Robertson, Richard D.; Funes, José; Verner, Dorte. 2013
DOI : 10.1142/S2010007813500024
Compounding food and income insecurity in Yemen
Wiebelt, Manfred; Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Robertson, Richard D.; Thiele, Rainer. 2013
Wiebelt, Manfred; Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Robertson, Richard D.; Thiele, Rainer. 2013
DOI : 10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.08.009
Stuck on stubble? The non-market value of agricultural byproducts for diversified farmers in Morocco
Magnan, Nicholas; Larson, Douglas M.; Taylor, J. Edward. 2012
Magnan, Nicholas; Larson, Douglas M.; Taylor, J. Edward. 2012
DOI : 10.1093/ajae/aas057
Leveraging fuel subsidy reform for transition in Yemen
Breisinger, Clemens; Engelke, Wilfried; Ecker, Olivier. 2012
Breisinger, Clemens; Engelke, Wilfried; Ecker, Olivier. 2012
DOI : 10.3390/su4112862
The future role of agriculture in the Arab region’s food security
Sulser, Timothy B.; Nestorova, Bella; Rosegrant, Mark W.; van Rheenen, Teunis. 2011
Sulser, Timothy B.; Nestorova, Bella; Rosegrant, Mark W.; van Rheenen, Teunis. 2011
DOI : 10.1007/s12571-010-0100-5
Grain import dependency in the MENA region
Sadler, Marc; Magnan, Nicholas. 2011
Sadler, Marc; Magnan, Nicholas. 2011
DOI : 10.1007/s12571-010-0095-y
A strategic framework for improving food security in Arab countries
Julian A. Lampietti; Sean Michaels; Nicholas Magnan; Alex F. McCalla; Saade, Maurice; Khouri, Nadim. 2011
Julian A. Lampietti; Sean Michaels; Nicholas Magnan; Alex F. McCalla; Saade, Maurice; Khouri, Nadim. 2011
DOI : 10.1007/s12571-010-0102-3
Impacts of the triple global crisis on growth and poverty
Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen; Collion, Marie-Helen; Rondot, Pierre. 2011
Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen; Collion, Marie-Helen; Rondot, Pierre. 2011
DOI : 10.1111/j.1467-7679.2011.00530.x
Booming markets for Moroccan argan oil appear to benefit some rural households while threatening the endemic argan forest
Lybbert, Travis J.; Aboudrare, Abdellah; Chaloud, Deborah; Magnan, Nicholas; Nash, Maliha. 2011
Lybbert, Travis J.; Aboudrare, Abdellah; Chaloud, Deborah; Magnan, Nicholas; Nash, Maliha. 2011
DOI : 10.1073/pnas.1106382108
Comment on: Abou-Ali, H., El-Azony, H., El-Laithy, H., Haughton, J. and Khandker, S., 2010. Evaluating the impact of Egyptian Social Fund for Development programmes. Journal of Development Effectiveness, 2 (4), 521-555
Duvendack, Maren; Palmer-Jones, Richard. 2011
Duvendack, Maren; Palmer-Jones, Richard. 2011
DOI : 10.1080/19439342.2011.563597
The value of the high Aswan Dam to the Egyptian economy
Strzepek, Kenneth; Yohe, Gary Wynn.; Tol, Richard S.J.; Rosegrant, Mark W.. 2008
Strzepek, Kenneth; Yohe, Gary Wynn.; Tol, Richard S.J.; Rosegrant, Mark W.. 2008
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.08.019
The overlap of overweight and anemia among women in three countries undergoing the nutrition transition
Eckhardt, Cara L.; Torheim, L.E.; Monterrubio, E.; Barquera-Cervera, S.; Ruel, Marie T.. 2008
Eckhardt, Cara L.; Torheim, L.E.; Monterrubio, E.; Barquera-Cervera, S.; Ruel, Marie T.. 2008
DOI : 10.1038/sj.ejcn.1602727
A general equilibrium analysis of conjunctive ground and surface water use with an application to Morocco
Diao, Xinshen; Dinar, Ariel; Roe Terry L.; Tsur, Yacov. 2008
Diao, Xinshen; Dinar, Ariel; Roe Terry L.; Tsur, Yacov. 2008
DOI : 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00287.x
Examining the socioeconomic impacts of irrigation in the Southeast Anatolia Region of Turkey
Miyata, Sachiko; Fujii, Tomoki. 2007
Miyata, Sachiko; Fujii, Tomoki. 2007
DOI : 10.1016/j.agwat.2006.11.001
Abstract | View
We explore the socioeconomic changes following implementation of an irrigation system in the Southeast Anatolia region of Turkey, and examines whether the improvement originally envisioned was achieved. We surveyed seven irrigated and eight non-irrigated villages in Sanliurfa Province, collecting several indicators at the household level, including crop patterns, household living standards, and access to water. Local perception of the irrigation project and decisions regarding water use also are examined. The irrigation projects have improved knowledge sharing of irrigation technology and helped to introduce the sharing of agricultural machinery. The projects also seem to have shifted the tribal hierarchy toward peer relationships. While positive changes are observed in irrigated villages, there remain socioeconomic problems that need to be addressed, such as water user association management and salinization." -- Authors' Abstract
Micronutrient deficiency and the prevalence of mothers’ overweight/obesity in Egypt
Asfaw, Abay. 2007
Asfaw, Abay. 2007
DOI : 10.1016/j.ehb.2007.03.004
Economics, water management, and conflict resolution in the Middle East and beyond
Fisher, Franklin M.; Huber-Lee, Annette. 2006
Fisher, Franklin M.; Huber-Lee, Annette. 2006
DOI : 10.3200/ENVT.48.3.26-41
Economy-wide gains from decentralized water allocation in a spatially heterogenous agricultural economy
Diao, Xinshen; Roe, Terry L.; Doukkali, Rachid. Cambridge, UK 2005
Diao, Xinshen; Roe, Terry L.; Doukkali, Rachid. Cambridge, UK 2005
DOI : 10.1017/S1355770X05002068
Feedback links between economy-wide and farm-level policies: with application to irrigation water management in Morocco
Roe, Terry L.; Dinar, Ariel; Tsur, Yacov; Diao, Xinshen. 2005
Roe, Terry L.; Dinar, Ariel; Tsur, Yacov; Diao, Xinshen. 2005
DOI : 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2005.05.007
Abstract | View
"This paper focuses on policy interventions for improving irrigation water allocation decisions by including both macro and micro considerations in a unified analytical CGE framework. The approach is demonstrated, using the case of Morocco, by analyzing selected policy (top-down and bottom-up) interventions and external shocks that affect the water sector. Both direct and indirect effects of these interventions are identified. The top-down (macro-to-micro) links are of a trade reform type. The bottom-up (micro-to-macro) links pertain to changes in farm water assignments and the possibility of water trading. We find that water productivity is strongly influenced by these policies, with the general equilibrium (indirect) effects modifying and sometimes reversing the partial equilibrium (direct) effects. We also find that the impacts of the two reforms we assessed are different, with trade reform having an absolute impact of a higher magnitude than the water reform. Finally, we show that the sequence of introducing the policy reforms matters. We also demonstrate the usefulness of our model approach in the case of the Water Directive Framework and the Common Agricultural Policy, both applied in EU countries in an antagonistic manner." -- Authors' Abstract
Robust poverty and inequality measurement in Egypt: correcting for spatial-price variation and sample design effects
Jolliffe, Dean; Datt, Gaurav; Sharma, Manohar. 2004
Jolliffe, Dean; Datt, Gaurav; Sharma, Manohar. 2004
Avoiding chronic and transitory poverty: evidence from Egypt, 1997-1999
Haddad, Lawrence James James; Ahmed, Akhter U.. 2003
Haddad, Lawrence James James; Ahmed, Akhter U.. 2003
Weighing what's practical: proxy means tests for targeting food subsidies in Egypt
Ahmed, Akhter U.; Bouis, Howarth E.. 2002
Ahmed, Akhter U.; Bouis, Howarth E.. 2002
DOI : 10.1016/S0306-9192(02)00064-7
Abstract | View
Despite achieving a significant cost reduction over the past two decades, the absolute cost of food subsidies in Egypt is still high relative to the benefits received by the poor. There is scope for better targeting food subsidies, in particular those for rationed cooking oil and sugar, both because reforms in this area are perceived to be far less politically sensitive than adjusting subsidy policies for bread and wheat flour and because higher income groups presently receive a significant percentage of the benefits. Targeting the high-subsidy green ration cards to the poor and the low-subsidy red ration cards to the nonpoor will require identification of both poor and nonpoor households. An International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) research team in Egypt, in collaboration with the Egyptian Ministry of Trade and Supply, developed a proxy means test for targeting ration cards. This paper describes the process of moving from the optimal income-predicting model to the final model that was both administratively and politically feasible. An ex-ante evaluation of the levels of accuracy of the proxy means testing model indicates that the model performs quite well in predicting the needy and nonneedy households. An effective and full implementation of this targeting method would increase the equity in the ration card food subsidy system and, at the same time, lower the total budgetary costs of rationed food subsidies. Moreover, the experience gained under this reform would facilitate targeting future social interventions to reduce and prevent poverty in Egypt.
Institutional change in the Syrian Rangelands
Ngaido, Tidiane; Shomo, Farouk; Arab, Georges. 2001
Ngaido, Tidiane; Shomo, Farouk; Arab, Georges. 2001
A profile of poverty in Egypt
Datt, Gaurav; Jolliffe, Dean; Sharma, Manohar. 2001
Datt, Gaurav; Jolliffe, Dean; Sharma, Manohar. 2001
Abstract | View
This paper presents a profile of poverty in Egypt for 1997. It assesses the magnitude of poverty and its distribution across geographic and socioeconomic groups, provides information on the characteristics of the poor, illustrates the heterogeneity amongst the poor, and helps identify empirical correlates of poverty. This poverty profile is constructed using data from the Egypt Integrated Household Survey (EIHS), which is a nationwide, multiple-topic household survey. One of the more striking set of findings relates to the differences between the poor and the non-poor in their educational attainments. Our results indicate a significant literacy and schooling gap between the poor and the non-poor. On average the poor have 2.6 fewer years of schooling than the non-poor, and their literacy rate is 27 percent lower than the non-poor. Our results also indicate that augmenting educational attainment of the poor does not require building more schools, but reducing the poor s opportunity cost of attending schools and increasing their returns from extra schooling, both suggesting the importance of income generating activities as a policy instrument.
Food subsidies in Egypt: reform options, distribution and welfare
Lofgren, Hans; El-Said, Moataz. 2001
Lofgren, Hans; El-Said, Moataz. 2001
DOI : 10.1016/S0306-9192(00)00030-0
Ensuring food security in Egypt: food subsidy, income generation and market reform, Cairo, Egypt, 25-26 May 1999
McClafferty, Bonnie. 2000
McClafferty, Bonnie. 2000
DOI : 10.1016/S0306-9192(99)00078-0
Wheat policy reform in Egypt: effects on production, prices, and marketing channels
Abdel-Latif, Abla M.; Kherallah, Mylene; Gruhn, Peter. 1998
Abdel-Latif, Abla M.; Kherallah, Mylene; Gruhn, Peter. 1998
A new approach to SAM updating with an application to Egypt
Thissen, Mark; Lofgren, Hans. 1998
Thissen, Mark; Lofgren, Hans. 1998
Policy reforms and technological change in Egyptian rice production: a frontier production function approach
Fan, Shenggen; Wailes, Eric J.; Young, Kenneth B.. 1997
Fan, Shenggen; Wailes, Eric J.; Young, Kenneth B.. 1997
Price competitiveness and variability in Egyptian cotton: effects of sectoral and economy-wide policies
Bautista, Romeo M.; Gehlhar, Clemen G.. 1996
Bautista, Romeo M.; Gehlhar, Clemen G.. 1996
The Egyptian food subsidy system: operation and effects on income distribution
Ali, Sonia M.; Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1996
Ali, Sonia M.; Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1996
Macro and micro effects of subsidy cuts: a short-run CGE analysis for Egypt
Lofgren, Hans. 1995
Lofgren, Hans. 1995
The economic and demographic determinants of international migration in rural Egypt
Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1993
Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1993
The economic uses and impact of international remittances in rural Egypt
Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1991
Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1991
Egypt's food subsidy policy
Alderman, Harold; von Braun, Joachim. 1986
Alderman, Harold; von Braun, Joachim. 1986
DOI : 10.1016/0306-9192(86)90007-2
Bureaucrats, peasants and the dominant coalition: an Egyptian case study
Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1986
Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1986
Development and structural change in rural Egypt, 1952 to 1982
Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1985
Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1985
Modelación de política gubernamental: el caso de las importaciones de alimentos, política de precios y la balanza de pagos en Egipto
Scobie, Grant McDonald; Valdes, Alberto. 1982
Scobie, Grant McDonald; Valdes, Alberto. 1982
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