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From food subsidies to cash transfers: Assessing economy-wide benefits and trade-offs in Egypt
Breisinger, Clemens; Kassim, Yumna; Kurdi, Sikandra; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Thurlow, James. Article in press
Breisinger, Clemens; Kassim, Yumna; Kurdi, Sikandra; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Thurlow, James. Article in press
DOI : 10.1093/jae/ejad006
Abstract | Link
Food is a vital part of poor households' budgets and so subsidizing staple foods would appear to be an obvious pro-poor policy. Indeed, most countries in North Africa have prioritized large national subsidy programs for staple foods and fuels as their main social safety net. However, these programs account for significant shares of government spending and often drive fiscal deficits, especially when import prices rise. In this paper we use a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model to evaluate the trade-offs between reducing poverty and managing fiscal balances. The modeling framework allows us to measure the efficiency costs of subsidies compared to cash transfers - switching to the latter is an emerging regional trend. We analyze these issues through a detailed case study of Egypt, where efforts to replace food subsidies with cash transfers is already underway. Data is also available in Egypt to design scenarios that realistically reflect potential targeting effectiveness and administrative costs. We show that replacing broad food subsidies with targeted cash transfers of roughly equivalent fiscal costs can improve the welfare of the poorest households, but the continuation of fiscal deficits results in a deceleration of economic growth. The latter gradually reduces welfare gains for the poor and leads to substantial welfare losses for middle-income households who lose access to subsidies without benefitting from cash transfers. Our findings highlight the political challenges facing subsidy reform programs.
Civil conflict, cash transfers, and child nutrition in Yemen
Ecker, Olivier; Al-Malk, Afnan; Maystadt, Jean-François. Article in press
Ecker, Olivier; Al-Malk, Afnan; Maystadt, Jean-François. Article in press
DOI : 10.1086/726294
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The most dramatic outcomes of protracted civil conflict include increased malnutrition among children and the resulting consequences for lifelong health and prosperity. Little is known about how to mitigate the nutritional impact of conflict. Understanding the potential of social protection measures is particularly important when the risk of intense armed conflict is high. We use quarterly panel data from Yemen to estimate the impact of civil conflict on child nutrition and the effect of unconditional cash transfers in mitigating the adverse nutritional impact. The results show that a one-standard-deviation increase in armed conflict intensity reduces children’s weight-for-height z-scores by 9.6%, on average. We also find that the studied cash transfer program mitigates the estimated nutritional impact by 42.4%. Our analysis suggests that unconditional cash transfers can be an effective development policy tool to curb rising acute child malnutrition in Yemen.
Made in Africa: How to make local agricultural machinery manufacturing thrive
Daum, Thomas; Adegbola, Ygué Patrice; Kamau, Geoffrey; Kergna, Alpha Oumar; Daudu, Christogonus; Adebowale, Wahab Akeem; Adegbola, Carine; Bett, Charles; Mulinge, Wellington; Zossou, Roch Cedrique; Nientao, Abdoulaye; Kirui, Oliver; Oluwole, Fatunbi Abiodun . Article in press
Daum, Thomas; Adegbola, Ygué Patrice; Kamau, Geoffrey; Kergna, Alpha Oumar; Daudu, Christogonus; Adebowale, Wahab Akeem; Adegbola, Carine; Bett, Charles; Mulinge, Wellington; Zossou, Roch Cedrique; Nientao, Abdoulaye; Kirui, Oliver; Oluwole, Fatunbi Abiodun . Article in press
DOI : 10.1002/jid.3845
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Manufacturing has the potential to drive economic growth, job creation and poverty reduction, but African manufacturers face challenges in competing with global markets. Agricultural machinery manufacturing may be one niche where African manufacturers can succeed. This paper examines the challenges and opportunities facing local agricultural manufacturers in Africa based on a survey of 386 manufacturers in four countries and qualitative methods. Results show that small, dedicated entrepreneurs have created vibrant local machinery markets. These manufacturers have several comparative advantages, in particular, the ability to develop machinery adapted to local agroecological conditions but face challenges related to financing, human resources, utilities, raw materials, production equipment and the regulatory environment. The paper offers recommendations on how to support local manufacturers to make “Made in Africa” the first choice for African farmers and agro-food processors.
Cluster-based agricultural development: A comparison between China and Africa
Zhang, Xiaobo. 2023
Zhang, Xiaobo. 2023
DOI : 10.22434/IFAMR2022.0041
Abstract | Link
Clusters for high-value crops are ubiquitous in China and in African countries. Drawing from three case studies (potato cluster in China, medicinal and aromatic cluster in Egypt, and dates cluster in Tunisia), this chapter discusses the major challenges facing cluster development and the roles of different agents (e.g. entrepreneurs, business associations, and local governments). Cluster development involves supply-side or demand-side bottlenecks along the way, which are beyond the capacity of individual enterprises. Whether a cluster can develop to the next stage depends crucially upon whether the bottlenecks can be resolved. Because the bottlenecks are context- and temporal-specific, it would be impossible for a planner or outsider donor to prescribe a one-size-fits-all intervention to overcome all the binding constraints. Instead, local elites, such as business leaders and local officials, can play a greater role in identifying the emerging bottlenecks and figuring out indigenous solutions. In China, because local governments have an embedded interest in promoting local economic development, they are keen to provide local public goods or initiate joint actions to address the successive binding constraints and facilitate cluster development. By comparison, the role of the local government is more muted in Africa, limiting the growth potentials of agricultural clusters.
The Russia-Ukraine war: Implications for global and regional food security and potential policy responses
Abay, Kibrom A.; Breisinger, Clemens; Glauber, Joseph W.; Kurdi, Sikandra; Laborde Debucquet, David; Siddig, Khalid. 2023
Abay, Kibrom A.; Breisinger, Clemens; Glauber, Joseph W.; Kurdi, Sikandra; Laborde Debucquet, David; Siddig, Khalid. 2023
DOI : 10.1016/j.gfs.2023.100675
Abstract | Link
This paper analyzes the implications of the Russian-Ukraine war on global and regional food security. We start with a global vulnerability analysis to identify most vulnerable regions and countries. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is particularly vulnerable to trade shocks because of its high food import dependence. Thus, we provide descriptive evidence characterizing how food systems and policies impact vulnerability to the price shock in selected MENA countries: Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen. Within these countries, we show that the crisis will differentially impact poor and non-poor households as well as rural and urban households. Although the absolute level of food insecurity may still be higher in rural areas where larger numbers of poor households are located, urban poor are likely to suffer most because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and associated hikes in food prices, especially in those countries where social protection and food subsidies are missing. We review lessons from previous food crises and identify actions needed to take (and to avoid) to protect most vulnerable countries and households in the short-term while also highlighting long-term policy options to diversify food, fertilizer and energy production and trade.
How resilience innovations in food supply chains are revolutionizing logistics, wholesale trade, and farm services in developing countries
Reardon, Thomas; Vos, Rob. 2023
Reardon, Thomas; Vos, Rob. 2023
DOI : 10.22434/IFAMR2022.0138
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Developing country food supply chains have been pummeled by a series (and often a confluence) of shocks over the past several decades, including the Russia-Ukraine war, COVID-19, climate shocks from hurricanes to floods to droughts, animal and plant diseases, an intensification of road banditry and local conflicts, and overlaying all these, deep transformation in markets themselves with new requirements for quality and food safety. Yet supply chains have been largely resilient, adapting and bouncing back in surprising ways. We show that this has often involves deep ‘pivoting’ by one segment or one value chain, and ‘co-pivoting’ by another to facilitate the former’s pivot. We present a conceptual framework and then illustrate with a variety of examples from Africa and Asia, such as pivoting toward e-commerce by Asian retailers and co-pivoting by delivery intermediaries; pivoting toward quality horticultural production by African and Asian farmers and co-pivoting by mobile outsource services for farming and marketing; and building of redundant ports to protect rice milling operations from climate shocks in Asia by agribusiness and logistic firms. The paper provides implications for policy to facilitate these adaptions and for resilience strategies of agribusiness firms.
Terrorism and inbound tourism in Egypt: Economy-wide and distributional impacts
Elshennawy, Abeer; Siddig, Khalid. 2023
Elshennawy, Abeer; Siddig, Khalid. 2023
DOI : 10.1111/rode.12985
COVID-19 and food insecurity in Africa: A review of the emerging empirical evidence
Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr.; Nshakira-Rukundo, Emmanuel; Gebrekidan, Bisrat Haile. 2023
Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr.; Nshakira-Rukundo, Emmanuel; Gebrekidan, Bisrat Haile. 2023
DOI : 10.1093/erae/jbad008
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) risks rolling back many of the efforts and global successes recorded in reducing poverty and food insecurity. We undertake a systematic search and review of the growing microeconomic literature on the association between COVID-19 and food insecurity in Africa, discussing its implications for food policy and research. Furthermore, we review the various coping strategies households employ to build resilience to COVID-19. The evidence indicates that COVID-19 is associated with an increase in food insecurity both ex-ante and ex-durante. Given the covariate nature of COVID-19 and associated control mechanisms, current evidence is short of providing clear causal learning. We provide some potential interesting areas where future efforts can be geared to improve learning on the relationship between COVID-19, food insecurity, and building resilience to shocks.
Gender-sensitive risks and options assessment for decision making (ROAD) to support WiF2
Ringler, Claudia; Abdulrahim, Sawsan; Adra, May; Alvi, Muzna Fatima; Choudhury, Zahid ul Arefin; ElDidi, Hagar; Kilby, Patrick; Nassif, Gabriella; Ratna, Nazmun; Sufian, Farha; van Biljon, Chloe; Wu, Joyce. 2023
Ringler, Claudia; Abdulrahim, Sawsan; Adra, May; Alvi, Muzna Fatima; Choudhury, Zahid ul Arefin; ElDidi, Hagar; Kilby, Patrick; Nassif, Gabriella; Ratna, Nazmun; Sufian, Farha; van Biljon, Chloe; Wu, Joyce. 2023
DOI : 10.51744/CRPP8
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The Gender-Sensitive Risks and Options Assessment for Decision Making (ROAD) to Support WiF-2 (ROAD migration project), a partnership coordinated by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Australian National University, American University Beirut, Lincoln University, and University of Dhaka, evaluated the ILO-DFID Partnership Programme on Fair Recruitment and Decent Work for Women Migrant Workers in South Asia and the Middle East (Work in Freedom, Phase 2 project [WiF-2]), which operated from 2018 to 2023. The WiF-2 project specifically aimed “to reduce vulnerability to trafficking and forced labour of women and girls across migration pathways leading to the care sector and textiles, clothing, leather and footwear industries (TCLFI) of South Asia and Arab States” (ToC WiF-2).
In this context, the International Labour Organization (ILO) describes three dimensions to forced labour: (i) unfree recruitment; (ii) work and life under duress; and (iii) impossibility to leave employer. Forced labour exists if any one of these dimensions exists. Exploitation relates to one or all of the following three elements: (i) restricting freedom of movement; (ii) economic exploitation; and (iii) violence or the threat of violence. Trafficking relates to migrants’ interactions with a network of individuals who organize the migration process, including brokers in origin countries and employment agencies, as well as employers in destination countries, with elements of deception, coercion, debt bondage, and slavery-like conditions. Trafficking also includes involuntary child labour.
To address women and girl’s vulnerability to forced labour, exploitation, and trafficking, the WiF-2 program implemented pre-migration outreach interventions in countries of origin (Bangladesh, India, and Nepal). At the micro-level, this included training of a group of social workers who would engage women, girls, and other community members in countries of origin through door-to-door visits, community/courtyard meetings, and orientation events, and by providing referrals for vocational training.
In this context, the International Labour Organization (ILO) describes three dimensions to forced labour: (i) unfree recruitment; (ii) work and life under duress; and (iii) impossibility to leave employer. Forced labour exists if any one of these dimensions exists. Exploitation relates to one or all of the following three elements: (i) restricting freedom of movement; (ii) economic exploitation; and (iii) violence or the threat of violence. Trafficking relates to migrants’ interactions with a network of individuals who organize the migration process, including brokers in origin countries and employment agencies, as well as employers in destination countries, with elements of deception, coercion, debt bondage, and slavery-like conditions. Trafficking also includes involuntary child labour.
To address women and girl’s vulnerability to forced labour, exploitation, and trafficking, the WiF-2 program implemented pre-migration outreach interventions in countries of origin (Bangladesh, India, and Nepal). At the micro-level, this included training of a group of social workers who would engage women, girls, and other community members in countries of origin through door-to-door visits, community/courtyard meetings, and orientation events, and by providing referrals for vocational training.
Revisiting poverty trends and the role of social protection systems in Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic
Abay, Kibrom A.; Yonzan, Nishant; Kurdi, Sikandra; Tafere, Kibrom. 2023
Abay, Kibrom A.; Yonzan, Nishant; Kurdi, Sikandra; Tafere, Kibrom. 2023
DOI : 10.1093/jae/ejac041
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Quantifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty in Africa has been as difficult as predicting the path of the pandemic, mainly due to data limitations. The advent of new data sources, including national accounts and phone survey data, provides an opportunity for a thorough reassessment of the impact of the pandemic and the subsequent expansion of social protection systems on the evolution of poverty in Africa. In this paper, we combine per capita GDP growth from national accounts with data from High-Frequency Phone Surveys for several countries to estimate the net impact of the pandemic on poverty. We find that the pandemic has increased poverty in Africa by 1.5 to 1.7 percentage points in 2020, relatively smaller than early estimates and projections. We also find that countries affected by Fragility, Conflict and Violence experienced the greatest increases in poverty, about 2.1 percentage points in 2020. Furthermore, we assess and synthesize empirical evidence on the role that social protection systems played in mitigating the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis in Africa. We review social protection responses in various African countries, mainly focusing on the impact of these programs and effectiveness of targeting systems. Although the evidence base on the protective role of social protection programs during the pandemic remains scarce, we highlight important findings on the impacts of these programs while also uncovering some vulnerabilities in social protection programming in Africa. We finally draw important lessons related to the delivery, targeting and impact of various social protection programs launched in Africa in response to the pandemic.
Fragility, conflict, and migration
Kosec, Katrina; Laderach, Peter; and Ruckstuhl, Sandra. 2023
Kosec, Katrina; Laderach, Peter; and Ruckstuhl, Sandra. 2023
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Fragility, Conflict, and Migration addresses challenges to livelihood, food, and climate security faced by some of the most vulnerable populations worldwide. The Initiative focuses on building climate resilience, promoting gender equity, and fostering social inclusion. It forms part of CGIAR’s new Research Portfolio, delivering science and innovation to transform food, land, and water systems in a climate crisis.
Empowering Africa's food systems for the future
von Braun, Joachim; Ulimwengu, John; Babu, Suresh Chandra; Srivastava, Nandita; Swinnen, Johan; Blumenthal, Nick; Nwafor, Apollos; Nhlengethwa, Sibusiso; Kapuya, Tinashe; Mutyasira, Vine; Hadda, Lawrence; Keizire, Boaz B.; Myaki, Ibrahim A.; Muhinda, Jean Jaques; Nijiwa, Daniel; Djido, Aboulaye; Gokah, Isaac; Ngabitsinze, Jean Chrysostome; Wamkele Mene, H. E.; Kalibata, Agnes; Bissi, Komla; Kajangwe, Antoine; Leke, Acha; Ooko-Ombaka, Amandla; Mannya, Karabo; Kassiri, Omid; Abe-Inge, Vincent; Kwofie, Ebenezer Miezah; Fan, Shenggen; Fu, Hanyi; Muthini, Davis; Sene, Amath Pathe; Siewertsen, Hedwig. Nairobi, Kenya 2023
von Braun, Joachim; Ulimwengu, John; Babu, Suresh Chandra; Srivastava, Nandita; Swinnen, Johan; Blumenthal, Nick; Nwafor, Apollos; Nhlengethwa, Sibusiso; Kapuya, Tinashe; Mutyasira, Vine; Hadda, Lawrence; Keizire, Boaz B.; Myaki, Ibrahim A.; Muhinda, Jean Jaques; Nijiwa, Daniel; Djido, Aboulaye; Gokah, Isaac; Ngabitsinze, Jean Chrysostome; Wamkele Mene, H. E.; Kalibata, Agnes; Bissi, Komla; Kajangwe, Antoine; Leke, Acha; Ooko-Ombaka, Amandla; Mannya, Karabo; Kassiri, Omid; Abe-Inge, Vincent; Kwofie, Ebenezer Miezah; Fan, Shenggen; Fu, Hanyi; Muthini, Davis; Sene, Amath Pathe; Siewertsen, Hedwig. Nairobi, Kenya 2023
Abstract | Link
Africa, a continent of immense potential, stands at a crucial juncture. Home to some of the world’s most fertile lands, abundant resources, and a burgeoning young population, it remains paradoxically ensnared in the grip of food insecurity, malnutrition, and challenges such as climate change, post-harvest losses, and inefficient supply chains. The urgency to empower and transform African food systems is not merely an agricultural or economic imperative but a moral, social, and ecological one.
The 2023 report, “Empowering Africa Food Systems for the Future,” highlights the ways in which Africa is uniquely positioned to redefine its future and pave a sustainable and resilient path for generations to come.
In delving into the assessment of food systems failures, the report confronts some harsh truths. Despite being home to nearly 60 percent of the world’s uncultivated arable land, Africa remains a net food importer spending billions annually to meet its food demands. A large fraction of its population still grapples with chronic hunger and malnutrition. Yet, it does not stop at just assessing failures; it moves forward to take stock of the robust and diverse food systems that form the lifeblood of the continent.
The 2023 report, “Empowering Africa Food Systems for the Future,” highlights the ways in which Africa is uniquely positioned to redefine its future and pave a sustainable and resilient path for generations to come.
In delving into the assessment of food systems failures, the report confronts some harsh truths. Despite being home to nearly 60 percent of the world’s uncultivated arable land, Africa remains a net food importer spending billions annually to meet its food demands. A large fraction of its population still grapples with chronic hunger and malnutrition. Yet, it does not stop at just assessing failures; it moves forward to take stock of the robust and diverse food systems that form the lifeblood of the continent.
Hidden hunger: A global problem with local solutions
Ulimwengu, John; Domgho, Léa Magne; Collins, Julia; Badiane, Ousmane. Kigali, Rwanda 2023
Ulimwengu, John; Domgho, Léa Magne; Collins, Julia; Badiane, Ousmane. Kigali, Rwanda 2023
DOI : 10.54067/nspt.001
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Micronutrient deficiencies are widespread in many low- and middle-income countries, but tend to be most severe in children and in pregnant women, who have higher micronutrient requirements. Micronutrient deficiencies stem from inadequate intake or absorption of vitamins and minerals which are required for normal functioning of the body; they cause specific conditions and also affect overall health, growth and development, resistance to disease, cognitive function, and energy and productivity. Common micronutrient deficiencies include those for iron, vitamin A, iodine, folate, and zinc. The most widespread micronutrient deficiency at the global level, iron deficiency causes anemia and contributes to maternal deaths and impaired child development. Vitamin A deficiency is the primary cause of preventable childhood blindness and a major contributor to child sickness and deaths from other diseases. Iodine deficiency in pregnant women can lead to lifelong neurological and cognitive issues in children. Folate deficiency during pregnancy also affects fetal development and can cause low birth weight and neural tube defects. Zinc deficiency impairs overall growth and development and is believed to be a leading contributor to overall disease burden in developing countries.
Characterizing and assessing innovation platforms in central and west Asia and North Africa
Oumer, Ali M.; Dhehibi, Boubaker; Akramov, Kamiljon; Al-Zu’bi, Maha; Baum, Michael. Beirut, Lebanon 2023
Oumer, Ali M.; Dhehibi, Boubaker; Akramov, Kamiljon; Al-Zu’bi, Maha; Baum, Michael. Beirut, Lebanon 2023
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Key messages
Innovation platforms (IPs) can provide a multidisciplinary research environment to test outcome-oriented research/scientific ideas, technologies, and innovations. These are particularly effective when agrifood challenges require cross-sectoral solutions and joint efforts of stakeholders who have a stake in both the problem and solution. IPs allow stakeholders to experiment together and share knowledge, resources, benefits, and risks for issues they cannot solve on their own, and benefit from the synergistic effects of working together.
IP functions include innovations relating to technology, capacity development, organization, policy, institutional governance, and the integration of these dimensions. Contemporary tools of monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) can be used to assess the IPs’ contribution to these dimensions and generate lessons for future scaling.
Three aspects of the IPs can be monitored and evaluated. These are activities, process changes, and results generated by the IP for beneficiary groups. The member stakeholders or a designated sub-team should define the indicators and rubric thresholds to measure these changes.
The International Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) can upgrade its research stations into National Innovation Platforms (NIPs) by engaging diverse partners and stakeholders to jointly identify their challenges and test their innovations to address those challenges. For example, improved varieties of cereals and forages could be entry points to set up NIPs in these research stations.
ICARDA’s country offices may be able to characterize the research stations and take the initiative to set up a NIP. The characterization and assessment of the research stations can proceed with the involvement of key stakeholders, including policymakers and the private sector.
Innovation platforms (IPs) can provide a multidisciplinary research environment to test outcome-oriented research/scientific ideas, technologies, and innovations. These are particularly effective when agrifood challenges require cross-sectoral solutions and joint efforts of stakeholders who have a stake in both the problem and solution. IPs allow stakeholders to experiment together and share knowledge, resources, benefits, and risks for issues they cannot solve on their own, and benefit from the synergistic effects of working together.
IP functions include innovations relating to technology, capacity development, organization, policy, institutional governance, and the integration of these dimensions. Contemporary tools of monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) can be used to assess the IPs’ contribution to these dimensions and generate lessons for future scaling.
Three aspects of the IPs can be monitored and evaluated. These are activities, process changes, and results generated by the IP for beneficiary groups. The member stakeholders or a designated sub-team should define the indicators and rubric thresholds to measure these changes.
The International Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) can upgrade its research stations into National Innovation Platforms (NIPs) by engaging diverse partners and stakeholders to jointly identify their challenges and test their innovations to address those challenges. For example, improved varieties of cereals and forages could be entry points to set up NIPs in these research stations.
ICARDA’s country offices may be able to characterize the research stations and take the initiative to set up a NIP. The characterization and assessment of the research stations can proceed with the involvement of key stakeholders, including policymakers and the private sector.
Analysis of the implications of Africa's food systems development on environmental sustainability
Adolph, Barbara; Griffiths, Geoffrey; Hou-Jones, Xiaoting
. Washington, DC; Palmira, Colombia; Washington, DC; Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire 2023
Adolph, Barbara; Griffiths, Geoffrey; Hou-Jones, Xiaoting
. Washington, DC; Palmira, Colombia; Washington, DC; Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire 2023
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Africa’s food systems need to provide sufficient affordable, nutritious food for Africa’s population, whilst generating income and employment to support the continent’s economic and social development. However, the long-term functioning of food systems relies on natural capital – the natural resources and ecosystems that provide the inputs needed for food production. These resources are currently being depleted and degraded at an alarming rate, with significant impacts on biodiversity, climate change, and ultimately, on the ability of food systems to fulfil their functions. This study was commissioned jointly by the Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF), in cooperation with the Alliance of Bioversity International, the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) of the CGIAR (formally known as the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research), and the African Development Bank (AfDB), to inform their engagement with key stakeholders in Africa and elsewhere, whose decisions today will influence the future of Africa’s food systems – and with that, the future of the continent overall. The report analyses the main trends and drivers of Africa’s food systems, how food systems have responded to these drivers, and what the resulting environmental impacts of these responses have been across the continent. It identifies policy-levers for engagement in the food systems space and concludes with recommendations on how to move away from an unsustainable “business as usual” trajectory. The analysis was largely based on a review and analysis of publicly available literature and data.
Unit root tests: Common pitfalls and best practices
Traoré, Fousseini; Diop, Insa. Washington, DC 2022
Traoré, Fousseini; Diop, Insa. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134944
Abstract | PDF
Since the seminal paper by Granger and Newbold (1974) on spurious regressions, applied econometricians have become aware of the consequences of unit roots in empirical analysis with time series data. Yet one can still find many published papers with unit root tests implemented in an inappropriate way. The objective of this Technical Note is to highlight the common pitfalls and best practices when testing for unit roots. In addition to the theoretical discussion, we provide examples using price data from Kenya, Mali, Togo, and South Africa to illustrate the procedures we think are worth following.
Investing in dates, poultry, olive, and medicinal and aromatic plants value chains in Egypt: Assessing the economy-wide impacts
El-Kersh, Mohamed; Atef, Mohamed; Ali, Alaa; Farghaly, Lobna; Abderabuh, Zainab; Abdelradi, Fadi; Abdou, Khaled; Abdelaziz, Ehab; Faris, Victor; Nasr, Saleh; Nassar, Yasmin; Nassar, Zaki; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred. Washington, DC 2022
El-Kersh, Mohamed; Atef, Mohamed; Ali, Alaa; Farghaly, Lobna; Abderabuh, Zainab; Abdelradi, Fadi; Abdou, Khaled; Abdelaziz, Ehab; Faris, Victor; Nasr, Saleh; Nassar, Yasmin; Nassar, Zaki; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134986
Abstract | PDF
This policy note summarizes an evaluation of public investment options for Egypt’s agri-food system conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation of the Government of Egypt and Cairo University. We quantitatively assess the expected economy-wide impacts of investing in four promising agricultural value-chains: dates, poultry, olives, and medicinal and aromatic plants (MAP). As part of the analysis, a range of agriculture-related public investments along the value-chains are considered, including spending to expand farm production and promotion of downstream agri-processing and marketing. We use two IFPRI structural models. The Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide model is used to capture linkages between economic sectors, households, and rural-urban economies and to measure changes in economic growth, household welfare, and employment within and beyond the agri-food system. RIAPA is linked to the Agricultural Investment and Data Analysis (AIDA), the second model, which tracks investment impacts and costs over time. Inter alia, we find that: Investments into each of the four agricultural value chains enhance growth, create additional employment opportunities, improve household welfare, and reduce poverty. The MAP and poultry value chains are the most promising value chains with regard to all four evaluation criteria. However growth generation is largest if investment is concentrated in the MAP value chain, while investment into the poultry value chain has the strongest impacts on job creation and poverty reduction. Investments into primary production and processing, besides having a strong direct impact on the value chain growth, generate significant indirect effects inside and outside the agrifood system. These indirect effects are largest for the MAP value chain.
Impact of falling remittances amid COVID-19 on Yemen’s war-torn economy
Elsabbagh, Dalia; Kurdi, Sikandra; Wiebelt, Manfred. Washington, DC 2022
Elsabbagh, Dalia; Kurdi, Sikandra; Wiebelt, Manfred. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/9780896294226_07
Abstract | PDF
Even before the COVID-19 pandemic battered economies across the world, Yemen had already experienced a half decade of civil war, resulting in a loss of approximately 45 percent of its real GDP by the end of 2019, according to the Yemeni Ministry of Planning. As the conflict continued, remittances from Yemenis working outside the country kept many households afloat and became an increasingly important source of income, estimated at $3.77 billion in 2019 — around 13 percent of GDP.
SACRED: Systematic Analysis for Climate Resilient Development
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2022
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | PDF
Physical climate vulnerability is often assessed using three key methodologies: indicator-based methods (e.g., a vulnerability index), model and GIS-based (quantitative approaches), and participatory approaches (e.g., cognitive mapping, interviews, and surveys). Each methodology has its own strengths and weaknesses and a combination of approaches is often considered ideal.
With respect to physical risks and impacts, IFPRI maintains a framework labelled SACRED (Systematic Analysis for Climate Resilient Development). This framework has been applied throughout Africa as well as in Asia. A schematic of the framework is shown below.
Key features of the SACRED framework are:
· Focus on a country or region rather than the globe.
· Structural approach. The component models of the SACRED framework are typically bottom-up and drawn from first principles.
· Completeness. All relevant climate change impact channels are treated in a coherent framework.
· Flexibility. It is important that the elements of the SACRED modelling interact appropriately with one another; however, the exact modelling frameworks are flexible.
· Risk and uncertainty. The SACRED framework is on the cutting edge when it comes to incorporating the likely frequency, severity, and economic implications of extreme events.
Relative to many integrated assessment model (IAM) frameworks, the SACRED framework is detailed with granular representations of key features such as water systems, agriculture, and infrastructure. In addition, the economic model within SACRED has strong detail in water and in regional agriculture. As a result, it meshes well with the bio-physical modelling approaches that are key to appropriately representing climate change within the economic model.
Key components of the framework are:
1. Incorporating both climate uncertainty and weather variability.
2. Using biophysical modelling to evaluate climate/weather impact on agricultural production.
3. Using water and hydrological models to assess future climate impact on irrigation, hydropower, droughts, and flooding.
4. Using both climate and water models to inform the assessment of damages from extreme events such as flooding, storm surge, and salinization on agriculture, infrastructure, and other capital.
5. When necessary, using additional models to assess options for the energy sector and to compute changes in greenhouse gas emissions.
6. Using an economic model to assess impact on GDP, welfare, employment, prices, and trade.
With respect to physical risks and impacts, IFPRI maintains a framework labelled SACRED (Systematic Analysis for Climate Resilient Development). This framework has been applied throughout Africa as well as in Asia. A schematic of the framework is shown below.
Key features of the SACRED framework are:
· Focus on a country or region rather than the globe.
· Structural approach. The component models of the SACRED framework are typically bottom-up and drawn from first principles.
· Completeness. All relevant climate change impact channels are treated in a coherent framework.
· Flexibility. It is important that the elements of the SACRED modelling interact appropriately with one another; however, the exact modelling frameworks are flexible.
· Risk and uncertainty. The SACRED framework is on the cutting edge when it comes to incorporating the likely frequency, severity, and economic implications of extreme events.
Relative to many integrated assessment model (IAM) frameworks, the SACRED framework is detailed with granular representations of key features such as water systems, agriculture, and infrastructure. In addition, the economic model within SACRED has strong detail in water and in regional agriculture. As a result, it meshes well with the bio-physical modelling approaches that are key to appropriately representing climate change within the economic model.
Key components of the framework are:
1. Incorporating both climate uncertainty and weather variability.
2. Using biophysical modelling to evaluate climate/weather impact on agricultural production.
3. Using water and hydrological models to assess future climate impact on irrigation, hydropower, droughts, and flooding.
4. Using both climate and water models to inform the assessment of damages from extreme events such as flooding, storm surge, and salinization on agriculture, infrastructure, and other capital.
5. When necessary, using additional models to assess options for the energy sector and to compute changes in greenhouse gas emissions.
6. Using an economic model to assess impact on GDP, welfare, employment, prices, and trade.
Selected publications related to SACRED
Special Issue of Climatic Change on the Zambezi River Valley. Table of contents here:
1) Arndt, C., and F. Tarp. 2015. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations: Lessons Learned from the Greater Zambezi River Valley and Beyond. Climatic Change. 130(1):1-8.
2) Schlosser, C.A., K. Strzepek. 2015. Regional climate change of the greater Zambezi River Basin: a hybrid assessment. Climatic Change 130:9-19.
3) Arndt, C., Fant, C., Robinson, S. et al. 2015. Informed selection of future climates. Climatic Change 130, 21-33.
4) Fant, C., Y. Gebretsadik, A. McCluskey, and K. Strzepek. 2015. An uncertainty approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the Zambezi River Basin. Climatic Change 130:35-48
5) Chinowsky, P.S., A.E. Schweikert, N.L. Strzepek and K. Strzepek. 2015. Infrastructure and climate change: a study of impacts and adaptations in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia. Climatic Change 130:49-62.
6) Arndt, C., and J. Thurlow. 2015. Climate uncertainty and economic development: evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050. Climatic Change 130:63-75.
Akpalu, W. and M. Bezabih. 2015. Tenure Insecurity, Climate Variability and Renting out Decisions among Female Small-Holder Farmers in Ethiopia. Sustainability 7(6):7926-7941.
Akpalu, W., C. Arndt, and I. Matshe. 2015. Introduction to the special issue on the economics of climate change in developing countries: Selected studies of impacts and adaptations in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. Sustainability. 7(2015):12122-12126.
Akpalu, W., I. Dasmani, and A.K. Normanyo. 2015. Optimum Fisheries Management under Climate Variability: Evidence from Artisanal Marine Fishing in Ghana. Sustainability 7(6):7942-7958.
Amisigo, B.A., A. McCluskey, and R. Swanson. 2015. Modeling Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Agriculture Demand in the Volta Basin and other Basin Systems in Ghana. Sustainability 7(6):6957-6975.
Arndt, C., C.A. Schlosser, K. Strzepek, and J. Thurlow. 2014. Climate Change and Economic Growth Prospects for Malawi: An Uncertainty Approach. Journal of African Economies. 23(4): ii83-ii107
Arndt, C., C.A. Schlosser, K. Strzepek, and J. Thurlow. 2014. Climate Change and Economic Growth Prospects for Malawi: An Uncertainty Approach. Journal of African Economies. 23(4): ii83-ii107
Arndt, C., F. Asante and J. Thurlow. 2015. Implications of Climate Change for Ghana’s Economy. Sustainability 7(6):7214-7231.
Arndt, C., F. Tarp, and J. Thurlow. 2015. The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam. Sustainability 7(4):4131-4145.
Arndt, C., P. Chinowsky, C. Fant, S. Paltsev, A. Schlosser, K. Strzepek, F. Tarp, and J. Thurlow. 2019. Climate change and developing country growth: The cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia. Climatic Change 154(3-4): 335-349.
Berhanu, W. and F. Beyene. 2015. Climate Variability and Household Adaptation Strategies in Southern Ethiopia. Sustainability 7(6):6353-6375.
Chinowsky, P.S., A.E. Schweikert, N. Strzepek, and K. Strzepek. 2015. Road Infrastructure and Climate Change in Vietnam. Sustainability 7(5):5452-5470.
Cullis, J., T. Alton, C. Arndt, A. Cartwright, A. Chang, S. Gabriel, Y. Gebretsadik, F. Hartley, G. de Jager, K. Makrelov, G. Robertson, A. C. Schlosser, K. Strzepek, and J. Thurlow. 2015. An Uncertainty Approach to Modelling Climate Change Risk in South Africa. WIDER Working Paper 2015/045
Enahoro, D., Sircely, J., Boone, R. B., Oloo, S., Komarek, A. M., Bahta, S., … Rich, K. M. 2021. Feed biomass production may not be sufficient to support emerging livestock demand: Model projections to 2050 in Southern Africa. SocArXiv.
Hachigonta, Sepo, ed.; Nelson, Gerald C., ed.; Thomas, Timothy S., ed.; Sibanda, Lindiwe M., ed. 2013. Southern african agriculture and climate change: A comprehensive analysis. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
Hartley, F., S. Gabriel, J. Cullis, and C. Arndt. 2021. Climate uncertainty and agricultural vulnerability in South Africa. SA-TIED Working Paper 162
Manuel, L., E. Tostão, O. Vilanculos, G. Mandlhate, and F. Hartley. 2020. Economic implications of climate change in Mozambique. SA-TIED Working Paper #136
Neumann, J.E., K.A. Emanuel, S. Ravela, L.C. Ludwig, and C. Verly. 2015. Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. Sustainability 7(6):6553-6572.
Ngoma, H., P. Lupiya, M. Kabisa, and F. Hartley. 2020. Impacts of climate change on agriculture and household welfare in Zambia: An economy-wide analysis. SA-TIED Working Paper #132
Payet-Burin, Raphael; Kenneth Strzepek. 2021. Development of a modelling framework to analyze the interrelations between the water, energy, and food systems in the Zambezi River Basin. SA-TIED Working Paper 182.
Payet-Burin, Raphael; Kenneth Strzepek. 2021. Interrelations between the water, energy and food systems and climate change impacts in the Zambezi River Basin. SA-TIED Working Paper 181.
Robinson, Sherman; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Islam, Shahnila; Sulser, Timothy B.; Robertson, Richard D.; Zhu, Tingju; Gueneau, Arthur; Pitois, Gauthier; and Rosegrant, Mark W. 2015. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model description for version 3. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1483. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
Schlosser, Adam; Sokolov, Andrei; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gao, Xiang; and Arndt, Channing. 2020. The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across Southern Africa. SA-TIED Working Paper 101.
Simbanegavi, W. and C. Arndt. 2014. Climate Change and Economic Development in Africa: An Overview. Journal of African Economies. 23(4): ii4-ii16.
Tembo, B., S. Sihubwa, I. Masilokwa, and M. Nyambe-Mubanga. 2020. Economic implications of climate change in Zambia. SA-TIED Working Paper #137
Twerefou, D.K., P. Chinowsky, K. Adjei-Mantey, Strzepek, N.L. 2015. The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Road Infrastructure in Ghana. Sustainability. 2015; 7(9):11949-11966.
Remote sensing data for monitoring agricultural production and economic activity: Application in Egypt
Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelradi, Fadi; Kassim, Yumna; Guo, Zhe. Washington, DC 2022
Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelradi, Fadi; Kassim, Yumna; Guo, Zhe. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.135067
Abstract | PDF
This policy note showcases two examples on how remote sensing data can be used for monitoring agricultural production and economic activities. The first case aims to generate granular data on agricultural production, which remain scarce in Egypt and the MENA region. The second case demonstrates the potential of remote sensing data to monitor economic activities during the COVID19 pandemic. Based on these data and together with other recent findings, we provide the following recommendations to facilitate post-COVID-19 recovery in Egypt:
► Targeting of stimulus and recovery packages based on the economic repercussions experienced across geographies and sectors
► Identifying and supporting promising value chains which experienced a significant slowdown in economic activities
► Diversifying economic activities and markets to improve the resilience of agri-food systems.
► Investment in data infrastructure to monitor and respond to future shocks. This may be supported by scale up of digital solutions, which proved to be effective in sustaining business activities even during the pandemic.
► Targeting of stimulus and recovery packages based on the economic repercussions experienced across geographies and sectors
► Identifying and supporting promising value chains which experienced a significant slowdown in economic activities
► Diversifying economic activities and markets to improve the resilience of agri-food systems.
► Investment in data infrastructure to monitor and respond to future shocks. This may be supported by scale up of digital solutions, which proved to be effective in sustaining business activities even during the pandemic.
Transforming African agricultural markets through digital innovations: What we (do not) know
Abay, Kibrom A.; Abate, Gashaw Tadesse; Chamberlin, Jordan; Kassim, Yumna; Spielman, David J.; Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul, Jr.. Washington, DC 2022
Abay, Kibrom A.; Abate, Gashaw Tadesse; Chamberlin, Jordan; Kassim, Yumna; Spielman, David J.; Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul, Jr.. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.135075
Abstract | PDF
This policy note synthesizes the key messages and lessons from existing evidence and trends in the development, deployment and scale up of ICT-enabled marketing tools. It is based on the recently published discussion paper titled “Digital tools and agricultural market transformation in Africa: Why are they not at scale yet, and what will it take to get there”.
Key messages
• Many digital innovations have been developed and deployed in recent years in Africa, many of which have only been implemented at pilot stages, with limited evidence of successful scaling.
• There remains significant marketing and institutional constraints hindering the development of some of these digital innovations, which may further explain disparate progress in countries.
• Differential access to digital innovations across genders and different typologies of households may trigger alternative variants of digital divide.
• Although the landscape of digital innovations in Africa offers several reasons to remain optimistic, the prevailing disconnect between pilots and scale-ups merits further evaluation.
Key messages
• Many digital innovations have been developed and deployed in recent years in Africa, many of which have only been implemented at pilot stages, with limited evidence of successful scaling.
• There remains significant marketing and institutional constraints hindering the development of some of these digital innovations, which may further explain disparate progress in countries.
• Differential access to digital innovations across genders and different typologies of households may trigger alternative variants of digital divide.
• Although the landscape of digital innovations in Africa offers several reasons to remain optimistic, the prevailing disconnect between pilots and scale-ups merits further evaluation.
Weather variability and extreme shocks in Africa: Are female or male farmers more affected?
Nico, Gianluigi; Azzarri, Carlo. Washington, DC 2022
Nico, Gianluigi; Azzarri, Carlo. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.135870
Abstract | PDF
Agriculture in Africa has been traditionally seen as an important employment provider, supporting agriculture-based livelihoods of the vast majority of the African population, (James, 2014; World Bank, 2011) and absorbing the largest share of the employed population. Data suggest that almost 224 million people aged 15 and above are directly engaged in agriculture in Africa (ILO, 2021), corresponding to nearly half of the total employed population in the continent and absorbing ¼ of global agricultural employment.
Forsa pilot program and evaluation plan
El Shabrawy, Atef; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Kurdi, Sikandra; Palloni, Giordano; Yassa, Basma. Washington, DC 2022
El Shabrawy, Atef; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Kurdi, Sikandra; Palloni, Giordano; Yassa, Basma. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.135878
Abstract | PDF
Forsa, which means “Opportunity” in Arabic, is a new economic inclusion program of the government of the Arab Republic of Egypt. Implemented by the Ministry of Social Solidarity, the program aims to graduate beneficiaries of the national cash transfer program, the Takaful & Karama Program (TKP), from being dependent on transfers from TKP to economic self-reliance by enabling them to engage in wage employment or sustainable economic enterprises. The most recent World Bank Economic Inclusion report (Andrews et al. 2021) highlights a recent increase globally in such graduation or economic inclusion programs, which now reach around 92 million beneficiaries from 20 million households across more than 75 countries. This rapid growth is raising demand for evidence on best practices in graduation program implementation. Egypt’s experience with Forsa can contribute to such guidance.
Forsa pilot program and evaluation plan [in Arabic]
El Shabrawy, Atef; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Kurdi, Sikandra; Palloni, Giordano; Yassa, Basma. Washington, DC 2022
El Shabrawy, Atef; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Kurdi, Sikandra; Palloni, Giordano; Yassa, Basma. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.135879
Regional developments [in 2022 Global Food Policy Report]
Njuki, Jemimah; Benin, Samuel; Marivoet, Wim; Ulimwengu, John M.; Mwongera, Caroline; Breisinger, Clemens; Elmahdi, Amgad; Kassim, Yumna; Perez, Nicostrato D.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Djumaboev, Kahramon; Romashkin, Roman; Mukherji, Aditi; Kishore, Avinash; Rashid, Shahidur; Chen, Kevin Z.; Zhan, Yue; Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio; Navarrete-Frias, Carolina; Piñeiro, Valeria. Washington, DC 2022
Njuki, Jemimah; Benin, Samuel; Marivoet, Wim; Ulimwengu, John M.; Mwongera, Caroline; Breisinger, Clemens; Elmahdi, Amgad; Kassim, Yumna; Perez, Nicostrato D.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Djumaboev, Kahramon; Romashkin, Roman; Mukherji, Aditi; Kishore, Avinash; Rashid, Shahidur; Chen, Kevin Z.; Zhan, Yue; Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio; Navarrete-Frias, Carolina; Piñeiro, Valeria. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/9780896294257_13
Abstract | PDF
Climate change is a truly global threat, but its impacts differ around the world. Regions and countries urgently need to identify and implement policy responses that reflect local needs and opportunities. This section examines the effects of climate change on national and regional food systems in Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Central Asia, South Asia, East and Southeast Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. For each major region, promising innovations and policy directions to promote the resilience and sustainability of food systems are considered:
- Scaling up social protection programs in Africa south of the Sahara
- Strengthening the focus on climate adaptation in Africa
- Rethinking water use in the Middle East and North Africa
- Promoting climate-smart practices and crop diversification in Central Asia
- Reforming agricultural support policies in South Asia
- Improving financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation in East and Southeast Asia
- Supporting global food security and sustainability in Latin America and the Caribbean
- Scaling up social protection programs in Africa south of the Sahara
- Strengthening the focus on climate adaptation in Africa
- Rethinking water use in the Middle East and North Africa
- Promoting climate-smart practices and crop diversification in Central Asia
- Reforming agricultural support policies in South Asia
- Improving financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation in East and Southeast Asia
- Supporting global food security and sustainability in Latin America and the Caribbean
COVID-19 and food (in)security in Africa: Review of the emerging empirical evidence
Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr.; Nshakira-Rukundo, Emmanuel; Gebrekidan, Bisrat. Washington, DC 2022
Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr.; Nshakira-Rukundo, Emmanuel; Gebrekidan, Bisrat. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.135904
Abstract | PDF
COVID-19 risks rolling back many of the efforts and global successes recorded in reducing poverty and food insecurity. We undertake a systematic review of the growing microeconomic literature on the association between COVID-19 and food (in)security in Africa, discussing its implications for food policy and research. In doing so, we highlight some of the methodological weaknesses in answering policy-relevant questions on the causal link between COVID-19 and food insecurity. We also review the various coping strategies households are using to build resilience to COVID-19 and explore the role of social protection and other tools in mitigating some of the negative effects of COVID-19.
This review provides evidence that COVID-19 is associated with food insecurity both ex-ante and ex-durante. There are many attempts to suggest this relationship may be causal with some robust methods in some contexts, but data limitations prevail which constrains causal learning. We also find evidence that income losses, loss of employment, and heightened food prices may be mediating the relationship between COVID-19 and food insecurity. Going further, we additionally review the mitigating role of social protection and remittances in reducing the negative effects of COVID-19 on food insecurity. Relatedly, we also show evidence that households are using various coping strategies such as food rationing and dietary change to cushion themselves against the COVID-19 shock but most of these measures remain adversely correlated with food insecurity. We end with a discussion on some potential interesting areas where future efforts can be geared to improve learning on the relationship between COVID-19, food insecurity, and building resilience to shocks.
This review provides evidence that COVID-19 is associated with food insecurity both ex-ante and ex-durante. There are many attempts to suggest this relationship may be causal with some robust methods in some contexts, but data limitations prevail which constrains causal learning. We also find evidence that income losses, loss of employment, and heightened food prices may be mediating the relationship between COVID-19 and food insecurity. Going further, we additionally review the mitigating role of social protection and remittances in reducing the negative effects of COVID-19 on food insecurity. Relatedly, we also show evidence that households are using various coping strategies such as food rationing and dietary change to cushion themselves against the COVID-19 shock but most of these measures remain adversely correlated with food insecurity. We end with a discussion on some potential interesting areas where future efforts can be geared to improve learning on the relationship between COVID-19, food insecurity, and building resilience to shocks.
The Russia-Ukraine crisis: Implications for global and regional food security and potential policy responses
Abay, Kibrom A.; Breisinger, Clemens; Glauber, Joseph W.; Kurdi, Sikandra; Laborde Debucquet, David; Siddig, Khalid. Washington, DC 2022
Abay, Kibrom A.; Breisinger, Clemens; Glauber, Joseph W.; Kurdi, Sikandra; Laborde Debucquet, David; Siddig, Khalid. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.135913
Abstract | PDF
This paper analyzes the implications of the Russian-Ukraine crisis on global and regional food security. We start with a global vulnerability analysis to identify most vulnerable regions and countries. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is particularly vulnerable to trade shocks because of its high food import dependence. Thus, we provide descriptive evidence characterizing how food systems and policies impact vulnerability to the price shock in selected MENA countries: Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen. Within these countries, we show that the crisis will differentially impact poor and non-poor households as well as rural and urban households. Although the absolute level of food insecurity may still be higher in rural areas where larger numbers of poor households are located, urban poor are likely to suffer most because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and associated hikes in food prices, especially in those countries where social protection and food subsidies are missing. On the policy side, we review lessons from previous food crises and identify actions needed to take (and to avoid) to protect most vulnerable countries and households in the short-term while also highlighting long-term policy options to diversify food, fertilizer and energy production and trade.
Financial access of midstream agricultural firms in Africa: Evidence from the LSMS-ISA and World Bank enterprise surveys
Ambler, Kate; de Brauw, Alan; Herskowitz, Sylvan; Pulido, Cristhian. Washington, DC 2022
Ambler, Kate; de Brauw, Alan; Herskowitz, Sylvan; Pulido, Cristhian. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.135932
Abstract | PDF
The midstream of agricultural value chains are rapidly changing in response to shifting domestic and international demand. While the performance of this segment may have important implications for the entire sector, evidence on midstream actors and their financial needs remain thin. We use data from both the Living Standards Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture and the World Bank Enterprise Survey from seven African countries to identify these agricultural midstream firms and assess their access to formal credit, comparing them to other, non-agricultural midstream firms. We find that the identified agricultural midstream firms are larger and more productive than their non-agricultural midstream counterparts and are less likely to report barriers to accessing credit, though overall access levels remain low. Among agricultural midstream firms, those owned or managed by women are more likely to report barriers to accessing credit. Taken together, these findings help build our understanding about the financial needs of micro-, small-, and medium-size enterprises in the agricultural midstream.
Egypt: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on poverty and food security
Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelradi, Fadi; Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen; Dorosh, Paul A.; Pauw, Karl; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Raouf, Mariam; Thurlow, James. Washington, DC 2022
Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelradi, Fadi; Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen; Dorosh, Paul A.; Pauw, Karl; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Raouf, Mariam; Thurlow, James. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.136321
Abstract | PDF
Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have witnessed rapid and significant increase in recent months, driven largely by the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and associated sanctions im-posed on Russia. Other factors, including governments’ responses and export bans, have also con-tributed to rising prices (Laborde and Mamun 2022). Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022, with most of the in-crease occurring since February 2022.
Social protection amidst social upheaval: Examining the impact of a multi-faceted program for ultra-poor households in Yemen
Brune, Lasse; Karlan, Dean; Kurdi, Sikandra; Udry, Christopher R.. 2022
Brune, Lasse; Karlan, Dean; Kurdi, Sikandra; Udry, Christopher R.. 2022
DOI : 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102780
Linkages between GRACE water storage, hydrologic extremes, and climate teleconnections in major African aquifers
Scanlon, Bridget R.; Rateb, Ashraf; Anyamba, Assaf; Kebede, Seifu; McDonald, Alan M.; Xie, Hua. 2022
Scanlon, Bridget R.; Rateb, Ashraf; Anyamba, Assaf; Kebede, Seifu; McDonald, Alan M.; Xie, Hua. 2022
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/ac3bfc
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Water resources management is a critical issue in Africa where many regions are subjected to sequential droughts and floods. The objective of our work was to assess spatiotemporal variability in water storage and related controls (climate, human intervention) in major African aquifers and consider approaches toward more sustainable development. Different approaches were used to track water storage, including GRACE/GRACE Follow On satellites for Total Water Storage (TWS); satellite altimetry for reservoir storage, MODIS satellites for vegetation indices, and limited ground-based monitoring. Results show that declining trends in TWS (60–73 km3 over the 18 yr GRACE record) were restricted to aquifers in northern Africa, controlled primarily by irrigation water use in the Nubian and NW Saharan aquifers. Rising TWS trends were found in aquifers in western Africa (23–49 km3), attributed to increased recharge from land use change and cropland expansion. Interannual variability dominated TWS variability in eastern and southern Africa, controlled primarily by climate extremes. Climate teleconnections, particularly El Nino Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole, strongly controlled droughts and floods in eastern and southern Africa. Huge aquifer storage in northern Africa suggests that the recent decadal storage declines should not impact the regional aquifers but may affect local conditions. Increasing groundwater levels in western Africa will need to be managed because of locally rising groundwater flooding. More climate-resilient water management can be accomplished in eastern and southern Africa by storing water from wet to dry climate cycles. Accessing the natural water storage provided by aquifers in Africa is the obvious way to manage the variability between droughts and floods.
Twenty-five years of Living Under Contract: Contract farming and agrarian change in the developing world
Vicol, Mark; Fold, Niels; Hambloch, Caroline; Narayanan, Sudha; Niño, Helena Pérez. 2022
Vicol, Mark; Fold, Niels; Hambloch, Caroline; Narayanan, Sudha; Niño, Helena Pérez. 2022
DOI : 10.1111/joac.12471
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The expansion of contract farming schemes through regions of the developing world in the era of the globalization of agriculture raises questions that are central to the study of agrarian political economy. Contract farming has extended the footprint of commodity production and integrated land and labour not otherwise captured in forms of direct production and marketing. 25 years after the publication of Living Under Contract: Contract Farming and Agrarian Transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa, a foundational collection edited by Peter Little and Michael Watts, it is necessary to take stock of the most prominent developments in the practice of contract farming and in the political economy literature studying it. The ultimate contribution of Living Under Contract was framing contract farming as expressing the unevenness of power relations in agriculture and grounding it in specific political, historical and social contexts that were not examined in the mainstream accounts. This introduction to the special issue revisits the questions that have remained relevant or re-emerged in the political economy literature on contract farming; it raises new questions that reflect contemporary developments and it explains how the papers in this collection contribute to the expansion of the theoretical and empirical horizons of the research on contemporary contract farming in low and middle-income countries.
Modeling conflict impact and postconflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen
Mukashov, Askar; Breisinger, Clemens; Engelke, Wilfried; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2022
Mukashov, Askar; Breisinger, Clemens; Engelke, Wilfried; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2022
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecosys.2022.100940
Characteristics and birth outcomes of pregnant adolescents compared to older women: An analysis of individual level data from 140,000 mothers from 20 RCTs
Akseer, Nadia; Keats, Emily Catherine; Thurairajah, Pravheen; Cousens, Simon N.; Betran, Ana Pilar; Oaks, Brietta M.; Huybregts, Lieven. 2022
Akseer, Nadia; Keats, Emily Catherine; Thurairajah, Pravheen; Cousens, Simon N.; Betran, Ana Pilar; Oaks, Brietta M.; Huybregts, Lieven. 2022
DOI : 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101309
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Background: Adolescence is a critical period of maturation when nutrient needs are high, especially among adolescents entering pregnancy. Using individual-level data from 140,000 participants, we examined socioeconomic, nutrition, and pregnancy and birth outcomes for adolescent mothers (10–19 years) compared to older mothers in low and middle-income countries.
Methods: This study was conducted between March 16, 2018 and May 25, 2021. Data were obtained from 20 randomised controlled trials of micronutrient supplementation in pregnancy. Stratified analyses were conducted by age (10–14 years, 15–17 years, 18–19 years, 20–29 years, 30–39 years, 40+ years) and geographical region (Africa, Asia). Crude and confounder-adjusted means, prevalence and relative risks of pregnancy, nutrition and birth outcomes were estimated using multivariable linear and log-binomial regression models with 95% confidence intervals.
Findings: Adolescent mothers comprised 31.6% of our data. Preterm birth, small-for-gestational age (SGA), low birthweight (LBW) and newborn mortality followed a U-shaped trend in which prevalence was highest among the youngest mothers (10–14 years) and then reduced gradually, but increased again for older mothers (40+ years). When compared to mothers aged 20–29 years, there was a 23% increased risk of preterm birth, a 60% increased risk of perinatal mortality, a 63% increased risk of neonatal mortality, a 28% increased risk of LBW, and a 22% increased risk of SGA among mothers 10–14 years. Mothers 40+ years experienced a 22% increased risk of preterm birth and a 103% increased risk of stillbirth when compared to the 20–29 year group.
Interpretation: The youngest and oldest mothers suffer most from adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes. Policy and programming agendas should consider both biological and socioeconomic/environmental factors when targeting these populations.
Methods: This study was conducted between March 16, 2018 and May 25, 2021. Data were obtained from 20 randomised controlled trials of micronutrient supplementation in pregnancy. Stratified analyses were conducted by age (10–14 years, 15–17 years, 18–19 years, 20–29 years, 30–39 years, 40+ years) and geographical region (Africa, Asia). Crude and confounder-adjusted means, prevalence and relative risks of pregnancy, nutrition and birth outcomes were estimated using multivariable linear and log-binomial regression models with 95% confidence intervals.
Findings: Adolescent mothers comprised 31.6% of our data. Preterm birth, small-for-gestational age (SGA), low birthweight (LBW) and newborn mortality followed a U-shaped trend in which prevalence was highest among the youngest mothers (10–14 years) and then reduced gradually, but increased again for older mothers (40+ years). When compared to mothers aged 20–29 years, there was a 23% increased risk of preterm birth, a 60% increased risk of perinatal mortality, a 63% increased risk of neonatal mortality, a 28% increased risk of LBW, and a 22% increased risk of SGA among mothers 10–14 years. Mothers 40+ years experienced a 22% increased risk of preterm birth and a 103% increased risk of stillbirth when compared to the 20–29 year group.
Interpretation: The youngest and oldest mothers suffer most from adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes. Policy and programming agendas should consider both biological and socioeconomic/environmental factors when targeting these populations.
Saving lives through technology: Mobile phones and infant mortality
Mensah, Justice Tei; Tafere, Kibrom; Abay, Kibrom A.. Washington, DC 2022
Mensah, Justice Tei; Tafere, Kibrom; Abay, Kibrom A.. Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Digital technologies can expand access to health services to underserved populations. This paper leverages mobile network expansion and survey data spanning two decades to study the impact of access to mobile phones on infant mortality in Africa. Using plausibly exogenous variations in lightning intensity and (sub)regional convergence in mobile penetration as instrumental variables for mobile network expansion, the analysis finds that mobile phones significantly reduce infant mortality. A 10 percentage point increase in mobile coverage is associated with a 0.45 percentage point reduction in infant mortality. Improvements in health knowledge and behavior and health care utilization appear to be plausible channels.
Exploring micronutrient deficiency risks in Africa using projections of the food system
Gabriel, Sherwin; Sulser, Timothy B.. 2022
Gabriel, Sherwin; Sulser, Timothy B.. 2022
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Micronutrient deficiencies (MND) remain an important challenge in the 21st century, complicated by climate, economic, and demographic change. However, the lack of recent and reliable survey data challenge understanding of the magnitude and risks posed by MNDs. We examine projections of food availability to 2050, for 49 African countries, under various climate and socio-economic futures, using a global, multi-market partial equilibrium model. Food availability is used to estimate micronutrient availability, accounting for edible portions, nutrient loss, and country-specific characteristics of consumed foods. Projections from an ensemble of sixty scenarios are analysed and assessed against recommended daily intake to gauge nutrient adequacy. Of the panel of 13 micronutrients analysed, inadequate calcium, vitamin A, riboflavin, folate, and zinc appear to be the most prevalent in 2050. Further, estimates are sensitive to socio-economic growth, which have stronger effects on households' food availability than changes in production driven by alternative greenhouse gas concentrations. As the composition of micronutrient availability by crop varies by country, the characteristics of specific food projections need to be considered when recommending interventions in the food system. The method can also be used to assess alternative scenarios of dietary evolution, and whether food system interventions to enhance nutrient density or availability may meaningfully reduce shortfalls in nutrient availability. The analysis is limited to national average food availability, and further disaggregation of household food availability, by geography or income group, allows for more specific identification of MNDs, and for appropriate interventions.
Perspective: Food environment research priorities for Africa: Lessons from the Africa food environment research network
Laar, Amos K.; Addo, Phyllis; Aryeetey, Richmond; Agyemang, Charles; Zotor, Francis; Covic, Namukolo. 2022
Laar, Amos K.; Addo, Phyllis; Aryeetey, Richmond; Agyemang, Charles; Zotor, Francis; Covic, Namukolo. 2022
DOI : 10.1093/advances/nmac019
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Over the last 2 decades, many African countries have undergone dietary and nutrition transitions fueled by globalization, rapid urbanization, and development. These changes have altered African food environments and, subsequently, dietary behaviors, including food acquisition and consumption. Dietary patterns associated with the nutrition transition have contributed to Africa's complex burden of malnutrition—obesity and other diet-related noncommunicable diseases (DR-NCDs)—along with persistent food insecurity and undernutrition. Available evidence links unhealthy or obesogenic food environments (including those that market and offer energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods and beverages) with suboptimal diets and associated adverse health outcomes. Elsewhere, governments have responded with policies to improve food environments. However, in Africa, the necessary research and policy action have received insufficient attention. Contextual evidence to motivate, enable, and create supportive food environments in Africa for better population health is urgently needed. In November 2020, the Measurement, Evaluation, Accountability, and Leadership Support for Noncommunicable Diseases Prevention Project (MEALS4NCDs) convened the first Africa Food Environment Research Network Meeting (FERN2020). This 3-d virtual meeting brought researchers from around the world to deliberate on future directions and research priorities related to improving food environments and nutrition across the African continent. The stakeholders shared experiences, best practices, challenges, and opportunities for improving the healthfulness of food environments and related policies in low- and middle-income countries. In this article, we summarize the proceedings and research priorities identified in the meeting to advance the food environment research agenda in Africa, and thus contribute to the promotion of healthier food environments to prevent DR-NCDs, and other forms of malnutrition.
Plot size and sustainable input intensification in smallholder irrigated agriculture: Evidence from Egypt
Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelfattah, Lina Alaaeldin; El-Enbaby, Hoda; Mahmoud, Mai; Breisinger, Clemens. 2022
Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelfattah, Lina Alaaeldin; El-Enbaby, Hoda; Mahmoud, Mai; Breisinger, Clemens. 2022
DOI : 10.1111/agec.12736
Abstract | Link
Increasing population pressure and population density in many African countries are inducing land scarcity and land constraints. Tightening land constraints are expected to trigger various responses, including agricultural intensification, as postulated by the Boserup hypothesis. The relevance of the Boserup hypothesis in irrigated agriculture, and in contexts where application of improved inputs is high, remains largely unexplored. Furthermore, while much of the debate on the topic in Africa has focused on how to boost agricultural intensification, there is scant evidence on whether evolving agricultural intensification practices in some parts of Africa are sustainable. In this article, we investigate the implication of land size (at the plot and farm level) on agricultural intensification. Our analysis sheds light on the relevance of the Boserup hypothesis in the context of Egypt, where irrigation dominates agriculture and input application rates are high relative to global standards. We also examine whether evolving agricultural intensification practices induced by land scarcity are agronomically appropriate. Our findings show that smaller plot and farm sizes are associated with higher application of agricultural inputs, mainly nitrogen fertilizers. Importantly, small plot size is associated with overapplication of nitrogen fertilizer relative to crop-specific agronomic recommendations. In addition, smaller plots are associated with higher rates of labor application and lower rates of mechanization.
Weather variability and extreme shocks in Africa: Are female or male farmers more affected?
Azzarri, Carlo; Nico, Gianluigi. 2022
Azzarri, Carlo; Nico, Gianluigi. 2022
DOI : 10.22004/ag.econ.322503
Abstract | Link (37 B)
African agriculture is highly sensitive to weather variability and extreme weather shocks. The question of how weather events affect participation in agricultural employment—including from a gender perspective—remains unanswered. This study aims to empirically quantify differences in how women and men adapt their participation in agricultural employment in response to climate variability and extreme weather events. Our study uses a novel individual-level database that draws mostly from Labour Force Surveys (LFS) that represents more than 80% of the total African population and covers nearly 86% of the Africa’s total workforce. In order to identify shock-affected areas, we match data from that LFS with gridcell monthly time series bioclimatic variables (temperature and rainfall). We estimate two systems of equations using the seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) estimator to account for the potential contemporaneous correlation of the error terms in each equation. Descriptive results by region show that, regardless of age and sex, agriculture dominates employment distribution. In West and Central Africa and in East and Southern Africa region the agricultural sector employs the largest share of the working population. Multivariate SUR results show that, of all weather events, heat waves and droughts have the greatest detrimental effecton the intensity of individual efforts in agriculture; the number of work hours is reduced by 40% in the case of heat waves and 14% during droughts. If farmers are women, however, the reduction in work hours due to heat wave is lessened by 40%. Given the fundamental role of women both in agricultural production and in coping with extreme weather shocks, the key priorities would lie on implementation of sustainable, climate-resilient, and gender-sensitive policies; corresponding interventions in the labor market; and gender mainstreaming in planning and promoting agriculture- and job-related programs.
Balancing national economic policy outcomes for sustainable development
Basheer, Mohammed; Nechifor, Victor; Calzadilla, Alvaro; Ringler, Claudia; Hulme, David; Harou, Julien J.. 2022
Basheer, Mohammed; Nechifor, Victor; Calzadilla, Alvaro; Ringler, Claudia; Hulme, David; Harou, Julien J.. 2022
DOI : 10.1038/s41467-022-32415-9
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim at jointly improving economic, social, and environmental outcomes for human prosperity and planetary health. However, designing national economic policies that support advancement across multiple Sustainable Development Goals is hindered by the complexities of multi-sector economies and often conflicting policies. To address this, we introduce a national-scale design framework that can enable policymakers to sift through complex, non-linear, multi-sector policy spaces to identify efficient policy portfolios that balance economic, social, and environmental goals. The framework combines economy-wide sustainability simulation and artificial intelligence-driven multiobjective, multi-SDG policy search and machine learning. The framework can support multi-sector, multi-actor policy deliberation to screen efficient policy portfolios. We demonstrate the utility of the framework for a case study of Egypt by identifying policy portfolios that achieve efficient mixes of poverty and inequality reduction, economic growth, and climate change mitigation. The results show that integrated policy strategies can help achieve sustainable development while balancing adverse economic, social, and political impacts of reforms.
Revisiting poverty trends and the role of social protection systems in Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic
Abay, Kibrom A.; Yonzan, Nishant; Kurdi, Sikandra; Tafere, Kibrom. Washington, DC 2022
Abay, Kibrom A.; Yonzan, Nishant; Kurdi, Sikandra; Tafere, Kibrom. Washington, DC 2022
Abstract | Link
Quantifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty in Africa has been as difficult as predicting the path of the pandemic, mainly due to data limitations. The advent of new data sources, including national accounts and phone survey data, provides an opportunity for a thorough reassessment of the impact of the pandemic and the subsequent expansion of social protection systems on the evolution of poverty in Africa. This paper combines per capita gross domestic product growth from national accounts with data from High-Frequency Phone Surveys for several countries to estimate the net impact of the pandemic on poverty. It finds that the pandemic increased poverty in Africa by 1.5–1.7 percentage points in 2020, relatively smaller than early estimates and projections. The paper also finds that countries affected by fragility, conflict, and violence experienced the greatest increases in poverty, about 2.1 percentage points in 2020. Furthermore, the paper assesses and synthesizes empirical evidence on the role that social protection systems played in mitigating the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis in Africa. It reviews social protection responses in various African countries, mainly focusing on the impact of these programs and effectiveness of targeting systems. Although the evidence base on the protective role of social protection programs during the pandemic remains scarce, the paper highlights important findings on the impacts of these programs while also uncovering some vulnerabilities in social protection programming in Africa. Finally, the paper draws important lessons related to the delivery, targeting, and impact of various social protection programs launched in Africa in response to the pandemic.
Labor productivity growth and industrialization in Africa
McMillan, Margaret S.; Zeufack, Albert. 2022
McMillan, Margaret S.; Zeufack, Albert. 2022
DOI : 10.1257/jep.36.1.3
HER Plus Harnessing gender and social equality for resilience in agrifood systems
de Haan, Nicoline C.; Gilligan, Daniel; Cole, Steve; Puskur, Ranjitha; Roy, Shalini; Kosec, Katrina. 2022
de Haan, Nicoline C.; Gilligan, Daniel; Cole, Steve; Puskur, Ranjitha; Roy, Shalini; Kosec, Katrina. 2022
The CADDP 10 per cent target - Still pursued by African leaders?
Benin, Samuel. 2022
Benin, Samuel. 2022
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The 2003 Maputo Declaration aimed at boosting African agriculture requires governments to make difficult decisions on budget priorities. Furthermore, tracking the progress of the initiative presents problems. Our author looks at these and other challenges the Maputo Declaration is facing. And against the background of a continuing decline in government expenditure on agriculture on the continent, he argues that new evidence on expenditure outcomes is required to get governments to reverse the trend.
Agricultural development: New perspectives in a changing world: Synopsis
Otsuka, Keijiro, ed.; Fan, Shenggen, ed.. Washington, DC 2021
Otsuka, Keijiro, ed.; Fan, Shenggen, ed.. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293854
Abstract | PDF
Agricultural Development: New Perspectives in a Changing World is the first comprehensive exploration of key emerging issues facing developing-country agriculture today, from rapid urbanization to rural transformation to climate change. In this four-part volume, top experts offer the latest research in the field of agricultural development. Using new lenses to examine today’s biggest challenges, contributors address topics such as nutrition and health, gender and household decision-making, agrifood value chains, natural resource management, and political economy. The book also covers most developing regions, providing a critical global perspective at a time when many pressing challenges extend beyond national borders. Tying all this together, Agricultural Development explores policy options and strategies for developing sustainable agriculture and reducing food insecurity and malnutrition.
The changing global landscape combined with new and better data, technologies, and understanding means that agriculture can and must contribute to a wider range of development outcomes than ever before, including reducing poverty, ensuring adequate nutrition, creating strong food value chains, improving environmental sustainability, and promoting gender equity and equality.
Agricultural Development: New Perspectives in a Changing World, with its unprecedented breadth and scope, will be an indispensable resource for the next generation of policymakers, researchers, and students dedicated to improving agriculture for global wellbeing.
The changing global landscape combined with new and better data, technologies, and understanding means that agriculture can and must contribute to a wider range of development outcomes than ever before, including reducing poverty, ensuring adequate nutrition, creating strong food value chains, improving environmental sustainability, and promoting gender equity and equality.
Agricultural Development: New Perspectives in a Changing World, with its unprecedented breadth and scope, will be an indispensable resource for the next generation of policymakers, researchers, and students dedicated to improving agriculture for global wellbeing.
Agricultural development: New perspectives in a changing world
Otsuka, Keijiro, ed.; Fan, Shenggen, ed.. Washington, DC 2021
Otsuka, Keijiro, ed.; Fan, Shenggen, ed.. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293830
Abstract | PDF
Agricultural Development: New Perspectives in a Changing World is the first comprehensive exploration of key emerging issues facing developing-country agriculture today, from rapid urbanization to rural transformation to climate change. In this four-part volume, top experts offer the latest research in the field of agricultural development. Using new lenses to examine today’s biggest challenges, contributors address topics such as nutrition and health, gender and household decision-making, agrifood value chains, natural resource management, and political economy. The book also covers most developing regions, providing a critical global perspective at a time when many pressing challenges extend beyond national borders. Tying all this together, Agricultural Development explores policy options and strategies for developing sustainable agriculture and reducing food insecurity and malnutrition.
The changing global landscape combined with new and better data, technologies, and understanding means that agriculture can and must contribute to a wider range of development outcomes than ever before, including reducing poverty, ensuring adequate nutrition, creating strong food value chains, improving environmental sustainability, and promoting gender equity and equality.
Agricultural Development: New Perspectives in a Changing World, with its unprecedented breadth and scope, will be an indispensable resource for the next generation of policymakers, researchers, and students dedicated to improving agriculture for global wellbeing.
The changing global landscape combined with new and better data, technologies, and understanding means that agriculture can and must contribute to a wider range of development outcomes than ever before, including reducing poverty, ensuring adequate nutrition, creating strong food value chains, improving environmental sustainability, and promoting gender equity and equality.
Agricultural Development: New Perspectives in a Changing World, with its unprecedented breadth and scope, will be an indispensable resource for the next generation of policymakers, researchers, and students dedicated to improving agriculture for global wellbeing.
Agricultural development in a changing world
Fan, Shenggen; Otsuka, Keijiro. Washington, DC 2021
Fan, Shenggen; Otsuka, Keijiro. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293830_01
Abstract | PDF
The world has been changing rapidly, and major issues surrounding agriculture have evolved as well. In fact, over the last several decades major shifts have occurred in the thinking on and practice of agricultural development. Accordingly, agricultural development goals have moved far beyond traditional ones such as food production and availability, agricultural productivity, farmers’ incomes (particularly those of smallholders), and employment. The set of new goals includes poverty reduction, adequate nutrition, functioning food value chains (FVCs), environmental sustainability, climate adaptation and mitigation, and gender equality and equity. Looking forward, agriculture will face new challenges and will have to be positioned to deliver broader development outcomes such as those mandated under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Land scarcity impedes sustainable input intensification in smallholder irrigated agriculture: Evidence from Egypt
Abay, Kibrom A.; El-Enbaby, Hoda; Abdelfattah, Lina Alaaeldin; Breisinger, Clemens. Washington, DC 2021
Abay, Kibrom A.; El-Enbaby, Hoda; Abdelfattah, Lina Alaaeldin; Breisinger, Clemens. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134249
Abstract | PDF
Increasing population pressure and population density in many African countries are inducing land scarcity and land constraints. These increasing land constraints are expected to trigger various responses and adaptation strategies, including agricultural intensification induced by land scarcity, as postulated by the Boserup hypothesis. However, most empirical evaluations of the Boserup hypothesis come from rainfed agriculture and mostly from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where application of improved agricultural inputs remains historically low. Agricultural intensification practices as well as the relevance of the Boserup hypothesis in irrigated agriculture and in contexts where application of improved inputs is high remains unexplored. Furthermore, while much of the debate on the topic in Africa has focused on how to boost agricultural intensification, there is scant evidence on whether evolving agricultural intensification practices in some parts of Africa are sustainable, yield-enhancing, and optimal.
In this paper we investigate the implication of land scarcity on agricultural intensification and the relevance of the Boserup hypothesis in the context of Egypt, where agriculture is dominated by irrigation and input application rates are much higher than SSA. We also examine whether evolving agricultural intensification practices induced by land scarcity are agronomically appropriate and yield-enhancing. We find that land scarcity induces higher application of agricultural inputs, mainly nitrogen fertilizers, sometimes beyond the level that is agronomically recommended. More importantly, land scarcity increases overapplication of nitrogen fertilizer relative to crop-specific agronomic recommendations. This implies that land constraints remain as important challenges for sustainable agricultural intensification. Finally, we find suggestive evidence that such overapplication of nitrogen fertilizers is not yield-enhancing, but, rather, yield-reducing. We also document that land scarcity impedes mechanization of agriculture. Our findings have important implications to inform appropriate farm management and sustainable intensification practices. Furthermore, our results can inform long-term policy responses to land scarcity.
In this paper we investigate the implication of land scarcity on agricultural intensification and the relevance of the Boserup hypothesis in the context of Egypt, where agriculture is dominated by irrigation and input application rates are much higher than SSA. We also examine whether evolving agricultural intensification practices induced by land scarcity are agronomically appropriate and yield-enhancing. We find that land scarcity induces higher application of agricultural inputs, mainly nitrogen fertilizers, sometimes beyond the level that is agronomically recommended. More importantly, land scarcity increases overapplication of nitrogen fertilizer relative to crop-specific agronomic recommendations. This implies that land constraints remain as important challenges for sustainable agricultural intensification. Finally, we find suggestive evidence that such overapplication of nitrogen fertilizers is not yield-enhancing, but, rather, yield-reducing. We also document that land scarcity impedes mechanization of agriculture. Our findings have important implications to inform appropriate farm management and sustainable intensification practices. Furthermore, our results can inform long-term policy responses to land scarcity.
Agricultural Investment Data Analysis (AIDA)
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, D.C.; Cairo, Egypt 2021
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, D.C.; Cairo, Egypt 2021
Abstract | Link
The Agricultural Investment Data Analysis (AIDA) tool is embedded in IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) modeling system. The integrated AIDA-RIAPA framework is used to analyze the economywide impacts of investments in the agri-food system (AFS) and help inform the design and prioritization of policies and investments given their impacts on development outcomes, such as economic growth, job creation, poverty reduction, or dietary improvements. Whereas AIDA is used to translate new investments in, say, irrigation, extension, or rural roads into changes in productivity, a recursive-dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, which sits at the core of the RIAPA system, measures the direct and indirect (spillover) effects of those investments on the rest of the economy. For example, investments in extension not only increase farm productivity of those receiving extension visits, but also create new jobs and income opportunities in downstream nonagricultural sectors, such as food processing, trading, and transport. This has welfare implications for households and individuals, which are analyzed using a series of microsimulation add-on modules also embedded in RIAPA.
Impact of COVID-19 on the Yemeni economy: How the drop in remittances affected economic sectors, food systems, and households
Elsabbagh, Dalia; Kurdi, Sikandra; Wiebelt, Manfred. Washington, DC 2021
Elsabbagh, Dalia; Kurdi, Sikandra; Wiebelt, Manfred. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134258
Abstract | PDF
There has been an unprecedented decline in the flow of remittances to Yemen – a vital source of money for millions – as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier model of Yemen’s economy was used to estimate the impact of lower remittances on economic sectors and employment, food systems, and household incomes.
New Social Accounting Matrix for Jordan: A 2015 Nexus project Social Accounting Matrix
Raouf, Mariam; Randriamamonjy, Josée; Elsabbagh, Dalia; Wiebelt, Manfred. Washington, DC 2021
Raouf, Mariam; Randriamamonjy, Josée; Elsabbagh, Dalia; Wiebelt, Manfred. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134261
Abstract | PDF
This new Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Jordan is a snapshot representation of the Jordanian economy in which productive activities, factors of production, and economic transactions between the main agents, including households, government, and the rest of the world, are illustrated in a circular flow. It has been constructed using IFPRI's Nexus format, which uses common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. This new SAM for Jordan is expected to be an important dataset for the Arab (Agricultural) Investment for Development Analyzer (AIDA), which is tool based on computable general equilibrium (CGE) model analyses. AIDA was developed to inform national and regional development strategies by providing evidence on the impact of agricultural investments on economic development.
Climate change and Egypt’s agriculture
Perez, Nicostrato D.; Kassim, Yumna; Ringler, Claudia; Thomas, Timothy S.; ElDidi, Hagar. Washington, DC 2021
Perez, Nicostrato D.; Kassim, Yumna; Ringler, Claudia; Thomas, Timothy S.; ElDidi, Hagar. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134318
Abstract | PDF
With climate change, Egypt’s already arid climate will face even higher temperatures and lower rainfall over key agricultural areas, requiring further urgent adaptation investments. Data from three general circulation models of climate were used to better understand the likely effects of climate changes on Egypt’s agricultural sector. The findings show largely adverse biophysical effects of climate change by 2050. Compared to a no-climate change scenario, yields for food crops are projected to decline by over 10 percent by 2050 due to higher temperatures and water stress as well as increased salinity of irrigation water. The highest biophysical yield declines are estimated for maize, sugar crops, and fruits and vegetables. Moreover, due to the country’s dependence on food imports, Egypt is not only affected by climate change impacts at home, but also by impacts in other food producing countries. Climate change-induced increases in food prices will reduce Egypt’s food import demand, while also dampening demand for Egypt’s exports. The implications for Egypt are tighter food markets with both reduced domestic production and increased difficulties to import food making it more difficult to augment domestic food supplies. This situation suggests the need for investments in climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector. Global cooperation to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions is also warranted given the high cost to Egypt’s society from adverse climate change impacts worldwide.
Climate change adaptation strategies for Egypt’s agricultural sector: A ‘suite of technologies’ approach
Perez, Nicostrato D.; Kassim, Yumna; Ringler, Claudia; Thomas, Timothy S.; ElDidi, Hagar. Washington, DC 2021
Perez, Nicostrato D.; Kassim, Yumna; Ringler, Claudia; Thomas, Timothy S.; ElDidi, Hagar. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134321
Abstract | PDF
Climate change negatively affects Egypt’s agriculture sector. This brief summarizes the results of a modeling exercise to examine a range of climate change adaptation approaches to counteract agricultural productivity declines. Rather than simulating a single technology, a ‘suite of technologies’ approach was used. For several food crops, none of the technology suites, individually or in combination, are shown to counteract the adverse impacts of climate change. For these crops, which include maize, oilseeds, pulses, and sugar, even stacking of technologies will not return productivity to pre-climate change levels. However, for fruits and vegetables, potatoes, rice, and wheat, crops less adversely affected by climate change, increased investments in climate changeresponsive crop traits, soil fertility improvement, water management, crop protection, or a combination of these technologies can counteract the adverse impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity. From a policy perspective, strong cooperation with the rest of the world on climate change adaptation will ultimately benefit Egyptian consumers. Doing so will reduce disruption of global food markets, which is of particular importance for countries, like Egypt, that are well integrated into those markets. In particular, Egypt’s economy and all Egyptian consumers benefit from the importation of lower-value, high water-consuming cereals under the hotter and drier conditions that can be expected in Egypt in the future due to climate change.
Land scarcity and input intensification in smallholder irrigated agriculture in Egypt
Abay, Kibrom A.; El-Enbaby, Hoda; Abdelfattah, Lina Alaaeldin; Breisinger, Clemens. Washington, DC 2021
Abay, Kibrom A.; El-Enbaby, Hoda; Abdelfattah, Lina Alaaeldin; Breisinger, Clemens. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134322
Abstract | PDF
Increasing population pressure and population density in many African countries are inducing land scarcity and land constraints. These are expected to trigger various responses and adaptation strategies, including agricultural intensification induced by land scarcity, as postulated by the Boserup hypothesis. However, most empirical evaluations of the hypothesis come from rainfed agriculture and mostly from sub-Saharan Africa, where application of agricultural inputs remains historically low. Agricultural intensification practices and the relevance of the Boserup hypothesis in irrigated agriculture (and where application of improved inputs is high) remains unexplored. We investigate the implication of land scarcity on agricultural intensification and the relevance of the Boserup hypothesis in the context of Egypt, where agriculture is dominated by irrigation and input application rates are much higher than elsewhere in Africa. We find that land scarcity increases overapplication of nitrogen fertilizer relative to crop-specific agronomic recommendations. This implies that land constraints remain as important challenges for sustainable agricultural intensification. Finally, we find suggestive evidence that such overapplication of nitrogen fertilizers is not yield-enhancing, but, rather, yield-reducing. We also document that land scarcity impedes mechanization of agriculture.
Impact of COVID-19 on Egypt’s dairy and artichoke value-chains: Qualitative findings from rapid value chain assessments
Abdelaziz, Fatma; Abay, Kibrom A.; El-Enbaby, Hoda; Breisinger, Clemens; Kurdi, Sikandra. Washington, DC 2021
Abdelaziz, Fatma; Abay, Kibrom A.; El-Enbaby, Hoda; Breisinger, Clemens; Kurdi, Sikandra. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134390
Abstract | PDF
The COVID-19 crisis is having strong impacts on the Egyptian economy, but these impacts differ strongly across sectors.1 Based on scenarios run using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier model of Egypt’s economy, COVID-19 is estimated to have resulted in an 8.6 percent decline in Egypt’s GDP during the 4th quarter of FY 2019/20 (April to June). The services sector was hit hardest, falling by 10.9 percent, followed by industry, which contracted by 8.3 percent. Agriculture was the most resilient sector, although there are large differences in the relative impact of COVID across agricultural subsectors.
Food subsidies and cash transfers in Egypt: Evaluating general equilibrium benefits and trade-offs
Breisinger, Clemens; Kassim, Yumna; Kurdi, Sikandra; Randriamamonjy, Josée; Thurlow, James. Washington, DC 2021
Breisinger, Clemens; Kassim, Yumna; Kurdi, Sikandra; Randriamamonjy, Josée; Thurlow, James. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134427
Abstract | PDF
Most Egyptians receive food subsidies, which are the cornerstone of the country’s social protection system. The government recently attempted to reduce subsidies, with limited success, and introduced a cash transfer program targeting the poor. We use a dynamic general equilibrium model of the Egyptian economy to evaluate the growth and distributional impacts of subsidy reforms and cash transfers. We find that the welfare of poor households would be enhanced by a smaller, but better targeted food subsidy program, and that, if the cost savings from reforms are channeled into investment, faster economic growth would eventually outweigh any short-term welfare losses. However, most of the gains from subsidy reforms accrue to nonpoor households. Combining subsidy reforms with cash transfers leads to the largest welfare gains for the poor, while leaving the welfare of nonpoor households largely intact. The latter is crucial to maintaining support for ongoing subsidy reform efforts.
Supporting Egypt’s safety net programs for better nutrition and food security, inclusiveness, and effectiveness
CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM). Washington, DC 2021
CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM). Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134530
Abstract | PDF
The long partnership between the Government of Egypt and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) began in the late 1970s but became much more active with the launch of IFPRI’s Egypt Strategy Support Program (ESSP) in 2016. Over the years, IFPRI’s research, with support from PIM since 2012, has informed important decisions on Egypt’s key safety net programs, including the food subsidy and the national cash transfer programs. This note summarizes some of the most recent outcomes of this work.
A 2019 Nexus Social Accounting Matrix for Egypt
Serag, Eman; Ibrahim, Fatma; El Araby, Zainab; Abd El Latif, Mona; El Sarawy, Mahmoud; El Zaabalawy, Dalia; El Dib, Saad Allah; Salem, Kotb; Breisinger, Clemens; Raouf, Mariam. Washington, DC 2021
Serag, Eman; Ibrahim, Fatma; El Araby, Zainab; Abd El Latif, Mona; El Sarawy, Mahmoud; El Zaabalawy, Dalia; El Dib, Saad Allah; Salem, Kotb; Breisinger, Clemens; Raouf, Mariam. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134544
Abstract | PDF
The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) is pleased to present an updated social accounting matrix (SAM) for Egypt. This SAM combines information from national datasets from many institutions, including the Central Bank, the Ministries of Finance and Agriculture, and various statistical bureaus. It also makes extensive use of data from the Economic Survey and Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIECS), which is produced by CAPMAS. With this data it becomes possible to provide a detailed update of the socioeconomic status of Egypt. The SAM also allows for more timely analysis of developmental issues and a better understanding the potential economic impacts of policy changes. The SAM is the main dataset used for economywide modelling of policy scenarios and simulations. Such modeling has proven to be a powerful evidence-based analytical tool for informing policy making and for assessing the impact of different policy interventions, especially during the COVID-19 crisis.
MIRAGRODEP Dual-Dual (MIRAGRODEP -DD) with an application to the EU-Southern African Development Community (SADC) Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA)
Bouët, Antoine; Laborde Debucquet, David; Traore, Fousseini. Washington, DC 2021
Bouët, Antoine; Laborde Debucquet, David; Traore, Fousseini. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134549
Abstract | PDF
MIRAGRODEP Dual-Dual is a recursive-dynamic multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model, devoted to trade and agricultural policy analysis. It is developed for AGRODEP and draws upon the MIRAGE model built by CEPII. It incorporates specific features of African economies. In addition to the usual dichotomy between rural and urban activities, it also features the distinction between formal and informal activities (double dualism a la Stifel-Thorbecke). The model includes other features such as foreign direct investment and runs with a tariff aggregation module that allows the user to capture the exclusion effects at a detailed level and the variance of tariffs. The model also includes a submodule allowing to test different closures for the public sector as well as the inefficiency of the tax collection system. Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and trade data in MIRAGRODEP are based on the GTAP database. Additional sources such as MacMap are used for protection data.
Africa agriculture trade monitor 2021
Bouёt, Antoine, ed.; Tadesse, Getaw, ed.; Zaki, Chahir, ed.. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Bouёt, Antoine, ed.; Tadesse, Getaw, ed.; Zaki, Chahir, ed.. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.54067/9781737916406
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African countries have diversified both their exports and trade partners over the last decade, African agricultural trade still suffers from structural problems as well as exogenous shocks. Against this backdrop, the 2021 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) analyzes continental and regional trends in African agricultural trade flows and policies. The report finds that many African countries continue to enjoy the most success in global markets with cash crops and niche products. At the intra-African level, countries are becoming more interconnected in trade of key commodities, but there remain many potential but unexploited trade relationships. The report examines the livestock sector in detail, finding that despite its important role in Africa, the sector is concentrated in low value- added products that are informally traded. The report also examines trade integration in the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), which remains limited due to factors including tariffs, nontariff measures, poor transport infrastructure, and weak institutions. Finally, the report discusses the implications of two major events affecting African trade in 2020 and 2021: the COVID-19 pandemic and the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
The Arab Maghreb Union: Regionalization without integration
Baghdadi, Leila; Karray, Zouhour; Zaki, Chahir. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Baghdadi, Leila; Karray, Zouhour; Zaki, Chahir. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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[This] chapter has three objectives. First, it analyses the composition and structure of export flows from the AMU countries, by product and by partner, with a special focus on agricultural products (including agrifood products). Second, it attempts to assess the untapped export potential for products and for destination markets. Third, it analyses factors that help explain why the AMU regional bloc has not led to deep integration.
The remainder of the chapter is organized as follows: The next section provides a historical overview of the AMU. This is followed by an analysis of the region's trade flows (intra- vs. extraregional trade flows). We then explore the untapped potential of the AMU’s main markets and export products. The following section discusses the factors that have hindered the integration of the AMU countries, and the final section concludes.
The remainder of the chapter is organized as follows: The next section provides a historical overview of the AMU. This is followed by an analysis of the region's trade flows (intra- vs. extraregional trade flows). We then explore the untapped potential of the AMU’s main markets and export products. The following section discusses the factors that have hindered the integration of the AMU countries, and the final section concludes.
The impact of COVID-19 on agricultural trade, economic activity, and poverty in Africa
Bouët, Antoine; Laborde Debucquet, David; Seck, Abdoulaye. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Bouët, Antoine; Laborde Debucquet, David; Seck, Abdoulaye. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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This chapter reviews efforts to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural trade, economic activity, and poverty in Africa, in view of the critical role that agricultural trade plays for millions of poor people. The next section presents the policy responses to the pandemic. The following one introduces the channels through which the pandemic affected African agricultural trade. Then the penultimate section assesses the impact of the crisis. The final section concludes.
African trade in livestock products and value chains
Kurtz, Julie E.; Mitik, Lulit; Zaki, Chahir. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Kurtz, Julie E.; Mitik, Lulit; Zaki, Chahir. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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[This] chapter has several objectives. First, we examine the main trade flows (by product and by destination and origin markets) for the three product groups of interest, with some focus on informal trade. Next, we investigate the protectionist effect of trade policies, tariffs, and NTMs. Then, we consider the opportunities and risks in livestock production systems, especially risks from climate change and conflict, which are the primary threats to food security in Africa (IFPRI 2019). In the final section, we conclude and offer some policy recommendations.
African participation in global agricultural trade
Bouët, Antoine; Sall, Leysa Maty. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Bouët, Antoine; Sall, Leysa Maty. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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Combining analyses at the aggregate and sectoral levels offers the richest perspective for understanding Africa’s place in global agricultural trade. International economic theory tells us that the intensity of trade depends on both macroeconomic factors (e.g., factor endowments, exchange rates) and sectoral factors (e.g., factor intensity by sector, access to specific technologies). In the same vein, the notion of “competitiveness” can be applied to a particular product, or to an entire economy.1 Thus, in this chapter, we look at African participation in global agricultural trade both at an aggregated level and at the sectoral level, for eight importantsectors: animals, plants, coffee, cereals, oilseeds, sugar, cocoa, and tobacco. This disaggregated view can help us identify the most promising sectors.
Intra-African agricultural trade
Goundan, Anatole; Tadesse, Getaw. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Goundan, Anatole; Tadesse, Getaw. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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The Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) was launched in 2018 as an annual report monitoring the continent’s progress in agricultural trade development. Chapter 3, as in the previous reports, reviews the state of intra-African agricultural trade, and provides an in-depth analysis of several agricultural products that are strategic for food security. Working from the hypothesis that total agricultural trade within Africa depends on the performance of trade in specific products, this chapter looks at how trade is affected by commodity-specific trade policies, including those related to food self-sufficiency, regulatory standards, and quality requirements.
Overview [in Africa agriculture trade monitor 2021]
Bouët, Antoine; Tadesse, Getaw; Zaki, Chahir. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Bouët, Antoine; Tadesse, Getaw; Zaki, Chahir. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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This first chapter provides an overview of recent issues related to agricultural trade in Africa. Hence, the next section explains how the unprecedented shock of COVID-19 has had a major impact on trade and food security in Africa. The following section looks at the initial steps in the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in 2021. The final section describes some issues concerning data and methodology used for this report
Climate-resilience policies and investments for Egypt’s agriculture sector: Sustaining productivity and food security
Perez, Nicostrato D.; Kassim, Yumna; Ringler, Claudia; Thomas, Timothy S.; ElDidi, Hagar; Breisinger, Clemens. Washington, DC 2021
Perez, Nicostrato D.; Kassim, Yumna; Ringler, Claudia; Thomas, Timothy S.; ElDidi, Hagar; Breisinger, Clemens. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/9780896294189
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The importance of a resilient agriculture sector in providing food security, livelihoods, and household income was highlighted in many countries by the recent pandemic, as was the capacity of the sector to cushion the negative impacts of the subsequent economic slowdown. This has been the case in Egypt, where agriculture has been resilient to the health crisis in comparison with the service and industry sectors (Breisinger et al. 2020). However, the sector’s resiliency is gradually being corroded by climate change, with lasting, harmful effects for agriculture and food systems.
Reducing vulnerability to forced labor and trafficking of short-term, low-skilled women migrant workers in the South Asia to Middle East corridor
ElDidi, Hagar; van Biljon, Chloe; Alvi, Muzna Fatima; Ringler, Claudia; Ratna, Nazmun; Abdulrahim, Sawsan; Kilby, Patrick; Wu, Joyce; Choudhury, Zahid ul Arefin. Washington, DC 2021
ElDidi, Hagar; van Biljon, Chloe; Alvi, Muzna Fatima; Ringler, Claudia; Ratna, Nazmun; Abdulrahim, Sawsan; Kilby, Patrick; Wu, Joyce; Choudhury, Zahid ul Arefin. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134673
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Millions of female migrants experience various forms of exploitative and unsafe conditions when migrating for employment and income generation, both in countries of origin and in destination countries. Vulnerabilities increased further due to the Covid-19 pandemic, causing income and job losses, entrapment in countries of destination without financial or social support and stigmatization upon return. One of the key migration routes travelled by millions of migrants is from South Asia to the Middle East. We examine this migration route for low-skilled female migrant workers highlighting the impacts of interventions along the migration pathway to determine the effectiveness of alternative mechanisms for reducing forced labour and trafficking. We draw lessons from the literature as well as from interviews with key informants in the field, including academics, development partners, NGO workers, and policymakers, to identify promising interventions that successfully reduce the vulnerability of women migrants. We find that, while Covid-19 has increased migrant vulnerability, it has also exposed the current system’s violations in facilitating trafficking and exacerbating poor working conditions.
Measuring progress toward the Malabo Declaration goals in the midst of COVID-19: A measurement approach for a health systems-sensitive resilience score
Constas, Mark A.; Wohlgemuth, Max; Ulimwengu, John M.. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Constas, Mark A.; Wohlgemuth, Max; Ulimwengu, John M.. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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As an outgrowth of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), the Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods (AUC 2014) established both a clear strategic direction and a well-articulated set of agriculture-focused strategic priorities for Africa. Beyond the two overarching commitments to supporting the CAADP process and enhancing investments, the Malabo Declaration drew attention to the goals of achieving zero hunger, halving poverty, boosting intra-African trade in agricultural commodities and services, enhancing the resilience of livelihoods and production systems to climate variability and other shocks, and building mutual accountability to actions and results. With climate change pressures, much of the work on resilience, in connection with the Malabo Declaration and other initiatives, is justifiably based in weather-related shocks. The protracted and pervasive effects of a global pandemic have, however, altered the range of risks to which resilience may be viewed as a strategic response. The present chapter is therefore motivated by the need to explore how indicators related to the shocks and stresses caused by COVID-19 may be incorporated into the CAADP measurement process.
ATOR 2021: Summary and conclusions
Ulimwengu, John M.; Constas, Mark A.; Ubalijoro, Éliane; Collins, Julia. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Ulimwengu, John M.; Constas, Mark A.; Ubalijoro, Éliane; Collins, Julia. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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The 2021 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) includes three major sections in addition to the chapter tracking progress toward Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) goals. First, the report assesses the impact of COVID-19 on African economies with a focus on food systems from access to inputs to household consumption. Second, it reviews policy interventions to stop the spread of the pandemic and contain its negative impact on food systems across the continent. Third, the report highlights innovations in measurement needed to better understand the effects of the pandemic and the factors contributing to resilience.
A consumer–food security nexus framework analysis for resilient agrifood value chains
Ellis, Emmanuella; Kwofie, Ebenezer Miezah; Ngadi, Michael. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Ellis, Emmanuella; Kwofie, Ebenezer Miezah; Ngadi, Michael. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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There is a global consensus that the current food system, involving the production, processing, transport, and consumption of food, is failing—threatening our food security, nutritional security and health, social justice, and natural resources—and therefore requires an immediate transformation if the global “zero hunger by 2030” agenda is to be achieved (HLPE 2017; HLPE 2020). The United Nations Committee on World Food Security defines “food security” as the state in which “all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their food preferences and dietary needs for an active and healthy life” (FAO 2002, Glossary). Food security is increasingly under threat: a report on global food security crises shows that 108 million people from 48 countries suffered from acute food insecurity in 2016 (FAO 2017). By the end of 2019, the number had increased to 135 million in 55 countries (FSIN 2020). By the end of 2020, the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic had nearly doubled this number to 265 million people (WFP 2020).
The impact of COVID-19 on staple food prices: Location matters
Yade, Mbaye; Matchaya, Greenwell; Karugia, Joseph; Goundan, Anatole; Guthiga, Paul; Taondyandé, Maurice; Odjo, Sunday; Nhlengethwa, Sibusiso. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Yade, Mbaye; Matchaya, Greenwell; Karugia, Joseph; Goundan, Anatole; Guthiga, Paul; Taondyandé, Maurice; Odjo, Sunday; Nhlengethwa, Sibusiso. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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This chapter summarizes the findings from analyses conducted by AKADEMIYA2063 on local staple food market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. With the outbreak of the highly contagious virus in Africa in March 2020, various measures were implemented by African governments to contain its spread. These measures included bans on public gatherings and markets; restrictions on movement within and between countries; closures of schools, restaurants, and hotels; and curfews. All these measures were likely to cause market disruptions and revenue losses for vulnerable groups by disrupting supply and demand of agricultural staples, either directly or indirectly. The objective of these analytical studies is therefore to generate evidence on how the various COVID-19 response measures have affected food supply and demand patterns in Africa, taking into account the locational characteristics (that is, whether an area is urban or rural, has a surplus or deficit of the commodity in question, and is in a coastal or landlocked country) and whether the commodity is perishable or nonperishable. Such evidence can then be used to inform efforts to anticipate and respond to food crises arising from infectious disease outbreaks and the measures implemented to limit their spread.
Africa: Food security and agricultural trade during the COVID-19 pandemic
Torero, Maximo. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Torero, Maximo. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all the countries in the world, transforming lives and economies. Many governments imposed containment measures to curb the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Those measures included various forms of restrictions on the movement of people, closures of businesses, and curtailment of public and private services. The virus containment measures lowered infection rates and pressure on health systems but also affected economic activity worldwide.
Introduction: Building resilient African food systems after COVID-19
Ulimwengu, John M.; Constas, Mark A.; Ubalijoro, Éliane; Collins, Julia. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Ulimwengu, John M.; Constas, Mark A.; Ubalijoro, Éliane; Collins, Julia. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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The COVID-19 pandemic has quickly spread across the world over the last two years, causing a significant number of deaths—more than 4.55 million as of October 2021—and hospitalizations as well as economic disruption. This global crisis has triggered a transformation toward a new, elusive “normal that may take years to fully materialize despite the amazingly fast discovery and deployment of vaccines, and more recently, the progress of COVID-19 treatments in clinical trials. The World Health Organization established a global target of 10 percent vaccination by the end of September 2021; although many developed countries have fully vaccinated 50–75 percent of their populations, African vaccination rates have only reached 4.4 percent (Mwai 2021).
Methods of assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on community dietary patterns
Kwofie, Mabel Kyei; Kwofie, Ebenezer Miezah; Ngadi, Michael. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Kwofie, Mabel Kyei; Kwofie, Ebenezer Miezah; Ngadi, Michael. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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Food provides the nutrients and energy that are essential for human health. Poor diet is associated with major chronic diseases such as obesity, diabetes, cancer, and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases that persist in both developing and developed nations (Popkin, Adair, and Ng 2012). These diseases contribute to high mortality rates worldwide. A public health challenge is how to reduce exposure to chronic diseases through reinforcement of healthy lifestyles and dietary patterns within populations (Gil et al. 2014). Associations between diet and health outcomes have been observed through longitudinal or retrospective case-control studies, and cross-sectional research studies. Dietary patterns involving healthy food consumption habits among individuals are beneficial in the prevention of diet-related health risks. In dietary patterns studies, it was observed that intake of distinct food combinations is more essential than single nutritive substance or foodstuff consumption (Newby and Tucker 2004). Diet quality assessments that consider overall diet and categorize populations by healthy consumption behavior are crucial tools in monitoring changes within a given population. Broadly, there are two methods—namely, a priori and a posteriori—that have been employed in assessing dietary patterns. The a priori approach assesses consumers’ adherence to and application of specific dietary recommendations, whereas the a posteriori approach is data-driven and uses multivariate statistical approaches.
Remote sensing and machine learning for food crop production data in Africa post-COVID-19
Ly, Racine; Dia, Khadim; Diallo, Mariam A.. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Ly, Racine; Dia, Khadim; Diallo, Mariam A.. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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The world is experiencing an unprecedented health crisis during the spread of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2, or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2). While the pandemic appears to be less severe on the African continent than in other geographic regions (Global Change Data Lab 2021), its economic impact is significantly more pronounced. COVID-19 is upending livelihoods, damaging business and government balance sheets, and threatening to reverse development gains and growth prospects for years to come in Africa south of the Sahara (IFC 2020). The World Bank forecasts that Africa south of the Sahara will go into recession in 2020 and that COVID-19 will cost the region between $37 billion and $79 billion in output losses in 2020 alone. The informal sector, a significant source of income and employment, will be the hardest hit.
The measurement of resilience capacities through the integration of macrolevel and microlevel indicators
d’Errico, Marco; Jumbe, Ellestina; Constas, Mark A.. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
d’Errico, Marco; Jumbe, Ellestina; Constas, Mark A.. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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Resilience measurement can now be viewed as an established body of research with 15 years of empirical evidence. Across this body of work, measurement studies have typically sought to identify key elements that render some households more resilient than others. There is now ample literature that includes robust and solid methods (Cissé and Barrett 2018; d’Errico, Romano, and Pietrelli 2018; Knippenberg, Jensen, and Constas 2019; Smith and Frankenberger 2018), reviews of methodologies (Barrett et al. 2021), solid evidence on the impact of resilience-enhancing interventions (d’Errico et al. 2020), and evidence on the role of macro and covariate shocks (such as conflict) on resilience capacity (Brück, d’Errico, and Pietrelli 2019).
2021 Annual trends and outlook report: Building resilient African food systems after COVID-19
Ulimwengu, John M., ed.; Constas, Mark A., ed.; Ubalijoro, Éliane, ed.. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Ulimwengu, John M., ed.; Constas, Mark A., ed.; Ubalijoro, Éliane, ed.. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.54067/9781737916413
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The 2021 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) focuses on building resilient African food systems after COVID-19. It examines emerging data on the impacts of COVID-19 on African economies and food systems, reviews the responses of African countries to the pandemic, and advances the discussion on methodologies to measure the impacts of and resilience to shocks. Although the report is centered around COVID-19, its lessons are applicable beyond the currentcrisis. The pandemic, a uniquely wide-ranging challenge that combined features of previous health, economic and food price shocks, reminds us of the breadth of risks and challenges that food systems must continue to withstand into the future. The report argues for a broader conceptualization of resilience that encompasses climate risks as well as the wider range of shocks that threaten progress toward transformed food systems and economies.
Assessing African economic policy responses to COVID-19
Tadesse, Getaw; Tefera, Wondwosen. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Tadesse, Getaw; Tefera, Wondwosen. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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In early 2020, African governments adopted a wide range of containment and confinement measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 in the continent. The measures included border closures, suspension of international flights, closures of markets and schools, state-of-emergency declarations, total and partial lockdowns, restrictions on internal movement, imposition of curfews, and closures of nonessential businesses (UN-Habitat 2020; IMF 2020). To mitigate the adverse economic effects of these health measures, governments implemented various emergency economic supports and regulations. Several institutions have tracked the type and size of policy responses by African countries to ease the adverse impacts on agricultural development, food security, finance, and trade (Laborde and Parent 2020; Bisson and Hambleton 2020). These studies have explored the incidence and impacts of emergency responses with the objective of estimating the costs of COVID-19. Similarly, AKADEMIYA2063 has established analytical workstreams to monitor the impacts of COVID-19 on food production, markets, trade, and households (Badiane and Collins 2020). However, these studies have evaluated the overall impact of COVID-19 without disentangling the impacts of the health measures from those of the economic measures.
Assessing the vulnerability of West and Central African countries to COVID-19
Ulimwengu, John M.; Domgho, Léa Magne; Collins, Julia. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Ulimwengu, John M.; Domgho, Léa Magne; Collins, Julia. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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As of October 2021, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in African countries are still unfolding. The early stages of the pandemic were characterized by apparent lower illness and mortality rates in Africa compared to the other world regions, although significant underreporting of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Africa is likely. 1 However, the economic effects of the pandemic and the measures taken to combat it were expected to impact African countries severely, worsening poverty and hunger and erasing recent economic gains (Bouët, Laborde, and Seck 2021). A “third wave” of the pandemic in mid-2021 saw rapidly escalating health effects and a return to lockdowns and other mitigation efforts in many countries (Mwai 2021). The crisis is expected to have severe impacts on food security in Africa as in other regions, due to food supply chain disruptions, income loss, school closures, and other factors (HLPE 2020).
Impact of COVID-19-related global trade disruptions on African food systems
Fofana, Ismaël; Camara, Alhassane; Diallo, Mariam A.; Sall, Leysa M.. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Fofana, Ismaël; Camara, Alhassane; Diallo, Mariam A.; Sall, Leysa M.. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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The COVID-19 pandemic is affecting national economies through several channels including global primary commodity trade and market disruptions. Countries have been affected by many of the measures taken to adapt to and control the spread of the disease. Measures enacted in response to the pandemic have had a major impact on both the demand for and the supply of commodities. They have reduced the availability of air cargo and shipping services, induced changes in port and airport operations, and impacted international trade and market access conditions. On the demand side, the net effect is likely to be negative in the short term, with a decrease in the global population’s propensity to consume and a decrease in intermediate consumption by firms.
Tracking key CAADP indicators and implementation processes
Tefera, Wondwosen; Collins, Julia; Makombe, Tsitsi. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Tefera, Wondwosen; Collins, Julia; Makombe, Tsitsi. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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In the 2003 Maputo Declaration on Agriculture and Food Security, African heads of state and government resolved to urgently implement the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP)—a continent wide framework for reducing poverty, food insecurity, and hunger and revitalizing agriculture through increased investments (AU 2003). Early on, the two main CAADP targets were allocating 10 percent of national budgets to the agricultural sector and achieving a 6 percent agricultural growth rate at the national level. In 2014, African leaders reasserted their commitment to CAADP and broadened the agenda by adopting the Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods. Through seven broad commitments in the Malabo Declaration, the leaders resolved to uphold CAADP principles and values, increase investment in agriculture, end hunger and halve poverty by 2025, boost intra-African agricultural trade, enhance resilience to climate variability, and strengthen mutual accountability for actions and results by conducting a continental Biennial Review (BR) of progress made in achieving the commitments (AUC 2014).
Rethinking the role of social protection in African food systems post-COVID-19
Benammour, Omar; Davis, Benjamin; Knowles, Marco; Pace, Noemi; Sitko, Nicholas J.. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Benammour, Omar; Davis, Benjamin; Knowles, Marco; Pace, Noemi; Sitko, Nicholas J.. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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Efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19 have further exacerbated long-standing challenges within African food systems and exposed new sources of vulnerability in people’s livelihoods. Emerging evidence demonstrates that the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic across African food systems are heterogeneous. They vary across income groups, occupations, and geographies and are closely tied to the structural features of the food systems (Egger et al. 2021; Josephson, Kilic, and Michler 2020; Kansiime et al. 2021; Belton et al. 2021; Nechifor et al. 2021).
Delivery of social protection programs to combat COVID-19 in Africa
Duchoslav, Jan; Hirvonen, Kalle. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
Duchoslav, Jan; Hirvonen, Kalle. Kigali, Rwanda; Washington, DC 2021
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The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted governments across the world to introduce unprecedented lockdowns and other restrictions on mobility to slow the spread of coronavirus and to avoid overwhelming healthcare systems. While often necessary, these measures have led to well-documented disruptions in economic activity (World Bank 2020e). Consequently, many experts and international organizations have raised serious concerns about increased poverty and threats to food and nutrition security (Headey and Ruel 2020; Laborde et al. 2020; Laborde, Martin, and Vos 2020; Torero 2020). In April 2020, the World Food Programme warned that the number of acutely food insecure people in the world could double by the end of 2020 without concerted action (WFP 2020).
Report on boosting investment in agriculture research in Africa: Building a case for increased investment in agricultural research in Africa
African Union. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 2021
African Union. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 2021
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Agricultural research and experimental development (R&D) investment is positively associated with high returns, but these returns take time—often decades—to develop. Consequently, the inherent lag from the inception of research to the adoption of new technologies calls for sustained and stable R&D funding. In 2016, Africa invested just 0.39 percent of its agricultural gross domestic product (AgGDP) in agricultural R&D, down from 0.54 percent in 2000. Furthermore, only a handful of African countries invest at least 1 percent of their AgGDP in agricultural research; the target set by New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD). Even though in absolute terms total R&D investment has increased since the turn of the millennium—after a period of stagnation—most of the funds have been directed toward research staff expansion, salary increases, and rehabilitation of derelict research infrastructure and equipment, rather than actual research programs. In fact, in a large number of African countries, the national government funds the salaries of researchers and support staff, but little else, leaving nonsalary-related expenses highly dependent on donors and other funding sources.
Building a case for increased investment in agricultural research in Africa
Stads, Gert-Jan; Nin-Pratt, Alejandro; Beintema, Nienke M.. Washington, DC 2021
Stads, Gert-Jan; Nin-Pratt, Alejandro; Beintema, Nienke M.. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134802
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Agricultural research and development (R&D) investment is positively associated with high returns, but these returns take time—often decades—to develop. Consequently, the inherent lag from the inception of research to the adoption of new technologies calls for sustained and stable R&D funding. In 2016, Africa invested just 0.39 percent of its agricultural GDP (AgGDP) in agricultural R&D, down from 0.54 percent in 2000. Even though in absolute terms total R&D investment has increased since the turn of the millennium—after a period of stagnation—most of the funds have been directed toward research staff expansion, salary increases, and rehabilitation of derelict research infrastructure and equipment, rather than actual research programs. In fact, in a large number of African countries, the national government funds the salaries of researchers and support staff, but little else, leaving nonsalary-related expenses highly dependent on donors and other funding sources.
Policy drivers of Africa’s agriculture transformation: A CAADP biennial review account
Benin, Samuel. Washington, DC 2021
Benin, Samuel. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134837
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This paper assesses the nature of agricultural transformation taking place in different parts of Africa and analyzes policy drivers of the transformation using data from the CAADP Biennial Review (BR) on 46 indicators from 2014 to 2018. First, a typology of agriculture transformation in different groups of countries is developed by analyzing the initial values and trends in three indicators—share of agriculture in total employment, share of agriculture in gross domestic product, and agriculture labor productivity. The typology, in addition to a conceptual framework that is developed for measuring the relative effect of a policy on an outcome, provides the basis for analyzing the policy drivers of agriculture transformation. The 46 BR indicators are classified into policies (13 indicators), intermediate results (23 indicators), and outcomes (10 indicators), and then econometric methods are used to measure the association between the policy indicators and the intermediate results and outcomes, which include agriculture intensification (e.g., access to finance and extension, fertilizer use, and irrigation development), agriculture growth, agriculture trade, food security, nutrition, and poverty. Different fixed-effects regression methods and model specifications of the explanatory variables are used to assess sensitivity of the results to different assumptions of the data and the relationship between the policies and intermediate and outcome indicators.
The trends in the indicators are different. For example, access to finance and extension have risen over time; fertilizer use, irrigation development, agriculture growth, and adult undernourishment have fallen over time; and child nutrition and poverty have remained stagnant over time. Different policy indicators are significantly associated with different indicators of agriculture intensification, agriculture growth, and outcomes. Also, there are differences in the results across the agriculture transformation groups. Major policy drivers of agriculture transformation in the different groups are identified. Implications of the results and suggestions for future research are discussed.
The trends in the indicators are different. For example, access to finance and extension have risen over time; fertilizer use, irrigation development, agriculture growth, and adult undernourishment have fallen over time; and child nutrition and poverty have remained stagnant over time. Different policy indicators are significantly associated with different indicators of agriculture intensification, agriculture growth, and outcomes. Also, there are differences in the results across the agriculture transformation groups. Major policy drivers of agriculture transformation in the different groups are identified. Implications of the results and suggestions for future research are discussed.
Researcher-implementer partnerships in nutrition-sensitive agriculture programming: Lessons from IFPRI’s work with Helen Keller International and the World Food Programme
Sproule, Katie; Bliznashka, Lilia. Washington, DC 2021
Sproule, Katie; Bliznashka, Lilia. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134877
Abstract | PDF
Researcher–implementer partnerships are frequently mentioned as key components of agricultural research for development (AR4D) programs. However, there is little information about what these types of partnerships look like, how they perform, and what factors facilitate and/or constrain their performance. By documenting and analyzing two partnerships in detail, including their history, formation, outputs, and outcomes, this study seeks to raise awareness about and improve understanding of long-term researcher–implementer partnerships. The lessons learned from these partnerships can be used by both the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and its implementing partner organizations, as well as other research and implementing organizations interested in engaging in or supporting such partnerships for AR4D in the future.
The study was carried out through four case studies. Case 1 focused on a long-term partnership between IFPRI and Helen Keller International (HKI), documenting how it was formed, how it operated, and what outputs it produced. Case 2 looked at the evidence generated by this partnership on the effectiveness of homestead food production (HFP) programs on nutrition-related outcomes and its use by funders, implementers, and researchers. Case 3 looked at how and to what extent the approaches developed by the partnership for the design, implementation, and evaluation of programs — specifically the program impact pathway (PIP) approach — have influenced the broader field of program evaluation. Case 4 examined a partnership between IFPRI and the World Food Programme (WFP), documenting how it was formed, how it operated, and what outputs it has produced to date. The four case studies were completed through a series of in-depth interviews (IDIs) with key informants from a number of research, implementer, and funder organizations. Data from the IDIs were complemented by document and literature reviews.
The study was carried out through four case studies. Case 1 focused on a long-term partnership between IFPRI and Helen Keller International (HKI), documenting how it was formed, how it operated, and what outputs it produced. Case 2 looked at the evidence generated by this partnership on the effectiveness of homestead food production (HFP) programs on nutrition-related outcomes and its use by funders, implementers, and researchers. Case 3 looked at how and to what extent the approaches developed by the partnership for the design, implementation, and evaluation of programs — specifically the program impact pathway (PIP) approach — have influenced the broader field of program evaluation. Case 4 examined a partnership between IFPRI and the World Food Programme (WFP), documenting how it was formed, how it operated, and what outputs it has produced to date. The four case studies were completed through a series of in-depth interviews (IDIs) with key informants from a number of research, implementer, and funder organizations. Data from the IDIs were complemented by document and literature reviews.
A study of Tunisia’s leather and date sectors
Abdelaziz, Fatma; Ellis, Mia; Zhang, Xiaobo. Washington, DC 2021
Abdelaziz, Fatma; Ellis, Mia; Zhang, Xiaobo. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134942
Abstract | PDF
Based on field visits, structured interviews, and reviews of the literature and secondary data, we examine major challenges facing the leather and date clusters in Tunisia. The challenges vary greatly between the clusters. The leather and footwear industry faces a decline in external demand. After the global economic crisis in the late 2000s and the Arab Spring in the early 2010s, the sector lost international competitiveness. To revitalize the sector, policies should be designed to expand markets for leather and footwear. Exploring trade agreement with the US, leveling the tariff rate for intermediate goods and shoes, attracting foreign direct investment, and improving leather quality are among potential policy options. Implementing these policies will require coordination among different government agencies and private sector stakeholders. Besides demand challenges, lack of water treatment also is a major challenge facing tanneries across Tunisia. The international demand for Tunisian dates has been very strong. Most of the major challenges are on the supply side, such as value chain coordination, inadequate water supply, labor shortages, diseases, lack of new varieties, and limited value addition. The supply-side policy options include diversifying varieties and expanding into date derivative and palm waste products, promoting labor-saving mechanization and water-saving irrigation technologies, and improving coordination along the value chain.
Cluster-based development in Egypt: A study of external shocks to the leather and medicinal and aromatic plant sectors
Abdelaziz, Fatma; Abdelghany, Nancy; Ellis, Mia; William, Amy; Zhang, Xiaobo. Washington, DC 2021
Abdelaziz, Fatma; Abdelghany, Nancy; Ellis, Mia; William, Amy; Zhang, Xiaobo. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134948
Abstract | PDF
The Egyptian government has prioritized the idea of cluster-based development-that is, the geographic concentration of specialized firms, such as in this case, those producing similar or related products. The establishment of such clusters, however, presents significant challenges, bottlenecks, and obstacles. Based on primary field work, this paper focuses on two case studies of the impacts of shocks on business clusters. The first study involved the relocation of an established leather cluster from Cairo to a newly created industrial park, Robbiki Leather City, which was promoted by Egypt’s Ministry of Trade and Industry. Although the relocation partly solved the existing issues of water contamination, new challenges emerged relating to increased production and transportation costs, and unforeseen impacts on the community. The second study assessed the short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a business cluster producing medicinal and aromatic plants. Overall the MAPs sector was resilient to the outbreak and there are opportunities to offset any negative impacts of the pandemic by taking advantage of new markets for Egyptian MAPs stemming from supply disruptions in other countries; increased global demand for MAPs due to their pharmacological and health properties; and increased international demand for organically grown MAPs.
Findings indicate that it is essential for governments to develop policy responses to the challenges-and especially barriers-to the development of business clusters, while simultaneously supporting and creating incentives for the cooperation, entrepreneurship, and collective action needed for business clusters to thrive and grow. As anticipated, challenges and obstacles-whether overarching or in response to shocks-are unique to specific sectors, contexts, and times, and hence need to be dealt with as an ongoing facilitation process.
The processed food revolution in African food systems and the double burden of malnutrition
Reardon, Thomas; Tschirley, David; Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O.; Awokuse, Titus; Fanzo, Jessica; Minten, Bart; Vos, Rob. 2021
Reardon, Thomas; Tschirley, David; Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O.; Awokuse, Titus; Fanzo, Jessica; Minten, Bart; Vos, Rob. 2021
DOI : 10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100466
Abstract | Link (37 B)
African consumers have purchased increasing amounts of processed food over the past 50 years. The opportunity cost of time of women and men has increased as more of them work outside the home, driving them to buy processed food and food prepared away from home to save arduous home-processing and preparation labor. In the past several decades, this trend has accelerated with a surge on the supply side of the processing sector and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and large private companies making massive aggregate investments. Packaged, industrialized, ultra-processed foods and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a growing proportion of the processed food consumed. Also, in the past several decades, overweight and obesity have joined the long-standing high levels of stunting and wasting among children and extreme thinness among women of childbearing age. Together these phenomena have formed a double burden of malnutrition (DBM). The DBM has emerged as an important health problem in sub-Saharan Africa. The rise of the DBM and the increase in ultra-processed food consumption are linked. Policy makers face a dilemma. On the one hand, purchases of processed food are driven by long-term factors, such as urbanization, increased income, and employment changes, and thus policy cannot change the pursuit of convenience and labor-saving food. Moreover, much processed food, like packaged milk, is a boon to nutrition, and the processed food system is a major source of jobs for women. On the other hand, the portion (some 10–30%) of processed food that is ultra-processed is a public health challenge, and policy must address its detrimental effects on disease burden. The global experience suggests that double duty actions are most important as are selected policies focused on healthy weaning foods for addressing stunting and taxes on SSBs, nutrition labeling, and other measures can steer consumers away from unhealthy ultra-processed foods to addressing obesity and possibly child nutrition and stunting. We recommend that African governments consider these policy options, but note that the current extreme fragmentation of the processing sector, consisting of vast numbers of informal SMEs in sub-Saharan Africa, and the limited administrative/implementation capacity of many African governments require pursuing this path only gradually.
Measuring women’s decisionmaking: Indicator choice and survey design experiments from cash and food transfer evaluations in Ecuador, Uganda and Yemen
Peterman, Amber; Schwab, Benjamin; Roy, Shalini; Hidrobo, Melissa; Gilligan, Daniel O.. 2021
Peterman, Amber; Schwab, Benjamin; Roy, Shalini; Hidrobo, Melissa; Gilligan, Daniel O.. 2021
DOI : 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105387
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Women’s decisionmaking indicators are widely used in social science research, though insufficient attention is given to measurement issues. We interrogate variations in indicator construction using survey experiments undertaken in the context of transfer programs in Ecuador, Yemen, and Uganda. Findings show that small variations can lead to meaningful differences in how women are ranked on decisionmaking, as well as change conclusions on whether programs have significant impacts on decisionmaking. Results also raise questions as to how well indicators capture dimensions of empowerment as they are not consistently associated with measures of women’s status. Finally, in the context of Uganda, results indicate that measures are susceptible to social desirability bias, however further investigation is needed to assess this potential. We conclude that choices made in indicator construction matter and in the absence of standardized guidance, current practice is ad-hoc. Further, despite the wide use of these indicators, evaluating program success on women’s empowerment solely through standard decisionmaking indicators is not recommended. Finally, measurement innovation utilizing context-specific understanding of intra-household dynamics is needed.
Africa’s food security requires accurate trade statistics
Bouët, Antoine; Cisse, Brahima; Traoré, Fousseini. 2021
Bouët, Antoine; Cisse, Brahima; Traoré, Fousseini. 2021
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Mark Twain once warned, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Yet statistics are a fundamental tool for economic policy and decision-making by governments, international institutions, and even the private sector. International trade statistics play a particularly important role. They allow us to determine a country's current account balance — that is, whether a country is living above or below its means — which is crucial information for macroeconomic policy. Detailed information on trade flows can be used to identify not only a country’s largest trading partners, but also the sectors in which it has a comparative advantage or disadvantage. This makes it possible to design structural actions to improve the competitiveness of certain sectors or trade relations with certain countries. These same statistics also provide valuable information for the private sector, as they help in identifying both attractive sectors for investment and which countries offer promising markets or are emerging as serious competitors.
Can unconditional cash transfers mitigate the impact of armed conflict on child nutrition in Yemen?
Ecker, Olivier; Maystadt, Jean-Francois. Giza, Egypt 2021
Ecker, Olivier; Maystadt, Jean-Francois. Giza, Egypt 2021
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The “ignored” civil war in Yemen has caused the world’s worst humanitarian crisis in recent history. Little is known about how to mitigate the detrimental consequences of such protracted violence. We use quarterly panel data to estimate the impact of armed conflict on child nutrition in Yemen and the role of unconditional cash transfers in mitigating the adverse nutritional impact. Our results show that a one-standard-deviation increase in armed conflict intensity reduces the weight-for-height z-scores (WHZ) and mid-upper arm circumference z-scores (MUACZ) of children by 9.6% and 4.4%, respectively, on average. We also find that the studied cash transfer program reduces the nutritional impact by 35.8% for WHZ and 20.4% for MUACZ. Our analysis suggests that if relative stability is restored, unconditional cash transfer programs can be an effective tool to curb rising acute child malnutrition in situations of complex emergencies.
Institutional mistrust and child vaccination coverage in Africa
Stoop, Nik; Hirvonen, Kalle; Maystadt, Jean-Francois. 2021
Stoop, Nik; Hirvonen, Kalle; Maystadt, Jean-Francois. 2021
DOI : 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-004595
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Despite considerable improvements in vaccination coverage over the last decade, half of the world’s unvaccinated and undervaccinated children are located in Africa. The role of institutional trust in explaining vaccination gaps has been highlighted in several qualitative reports but so far has only been quantified in a small number of high-income countries.
Food trade openness and enhancement of food security: Partial equilibrium model simulations for selected countries
Fathelrahman, Eihab; Davies, Stephen; Muhammad, Safdar. 2021
Fathelrahman, Eihab; Davies, Stephen; Muhammad, Safdar. 2021
DOI : 10.3390/su13084107
Abstract | Link (37 B)
This research measured the welfare impacts of food trade liberalization in India, Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) using the partial equilibrium model—World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS). Macroeconomic settings, domestic policy objectives, and food security indicator data are used to assess the implications of the simulations on food availability and stability. Simulation results for India, Egypt, and Pakistan indicate annual welfare gains (consumer surplus) of 2571, 340, and 25 million USD, respectively, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE have gains of 14 and 17 million USD. Results show that tariff elimination would have wide-ranging welfare impacts across food commodities within these countries. Moreover, reductions for specific commodities directly relevant to food energy and protein availability would have a greater direct impact on the poor. Lowering the highest tariffs on those commodities might raise the real incomes of more than 350 million persons by 7.5% or more and could create shifts in consumption towards more diversified and nutritionally sound diets.
Better living through nutrition: How tackling malnutrition can transform Africa’s development
Covic, Namukolo. 2021
Covic, Namukolo. 2021
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Despite the will, many developing countries lack the resources to deal with a problem that ravages at both the national and individual level. We need smarter, context-specific solutions on nutrition that can catalyze sustainable change.
The nutritional benefits of cash transfers in humanitarian crises: Evidence from Yemen
Kurdi, Sikandra. 2021
Kurdi, Sikandra. 2021
DOI : 10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105664
Abstract | Link (37 B)
At the World Humanitarian Summit in 2016 the long-standing divide between humanitarian and development approaches was challenged with a call for responses that both meet immediate needs and protect human capital for eventual recovery. In this regard, the use of cash transfers in humanitarian settings is an emerging trend; however, it has been limited by a lack of evidence on how well cash transfers improve nutritional outcomes given the challenges of conducting rigorous evaluations in a crisis context. This study makes use of a cluster randomized control trial that was left in place when a pilot cash-plus intervention evolved during the civil conflict into a major program within the Yemen Emergency Crisis Response program. The results provide uniquely rigorous evidence of the potential for long-run nutritional benefits of cash transfers in humanitarian crisis settings. The “Cash for Nutrition” intervention provides cash transfers as well as nutritional training to targeted households with young children in Yemen in the context of what is considered the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Differences-in-differences estimates indicate that the intervention significantly increased purchases of non-staple foods which translated into large positive impacts on child dietary diversity scores. Impacts on consumption patterns and dietary diversity are significant for the full sample and strongest among the poorest tercile of households where the transfers are largest relative to baseline household food budgets. In this poorest sub-group we also find large and statistically significant program impacts on height-for-age z-scores of 0.3. These results support the increased use of cash transfers and provide a benchmark for comparison with more traditional food distribution and supplementation strategies for supporting child nutrition in protracted crisis contexts.
Africa’s farmers deserve choices
Njuki, Jemimah; Nsimadala, Elizabeth. 2021
Njuki, Jemimah; Nsimadala, Elizabeth. 2021
Abstract | Link (37 B)
In a few weeks, the United Nations will host the first international Food Systems Summit. The goal is to create a global movement committed to solving the many dietary, economic and environmental problems linked to the way food is produced, sold and consumed today.
Civil conflict, cash transfers, and child nutrition in Yemen
Ecker, Olivier; Maystadt, Jean-Francois. Berlin, Germany 2021
Ecker, Olivier; Maystadt, Jean-Francois. Berlin, Germany 2021
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The most dramatic outcomes of protracted civil conflict include increased malnutrition among children and the resulting consequences for lifelong health and prosperity. Little is known about how to mitigate the nutritional impact of conflict. Knowing the potential of economic interventions is particularly important for post-conflict reconstruction, when the threat of violence resurgence is high. We use quarterly panel data from Yemen to estimate the impact of civil conflict on child nutrition in Yemen and the effects of unconditional cash transfers in mitigating the adverse nutritional impact. Our results show that a one-standard-deviation increase in armed conflict intensity reduces the weight-for-height z-scores (WHZ) of children by 9.6%, on average. We also find that the studied cash transfer program reduces the nutritional impact by 35.8% for WHZ. Our analysis suggests that if relative stability is restored, unconditional cash transfer programs can be an effective tool to curb rising acute child malnutrition in situations of complex emergencies.
African farmers, value chains and agricultural development: An economic and institutional perspective
de Brauw, Alan; Bulte, Erwin. Cham, Switzerland 2021
de Brauw, Alan; Bulte, Erwin. Cham, Switzerland 2021
DOI : 10.1007/978-3-030-88693-6
The future of fish in Africa: Employment and investment opportunities
Chan, Chin Yee; Tran, Nhuong; Cheong, Kai Ching; Sulser, Timothy B.; Cohen, Philippa J.; Wiebe, Keith D.. 2021
Chan, Chin Yee; Tran, Nhuong; Cheong, Kai Ching; Sulser, Timothy B.; Cohen, Philippa J.; Wiebe, Keith D.. 2021
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0261615
Abstract | Link (37 B)
One of the most pressing challenges facing food systems in Africa is ensuring availability of a healthy and sustainable diet to 2.4 billion people by 2050. The continent has struggled with development challenges, particularly chronic food insecurity and pervasive poverty. In Africa’s food systems, fish and other aquatic foods play a multifaceted role in generating income, and providing a critical source of essential micronutrients. To date, there are no estimates of investment and potential returns for domestic fish production in Africa. To contribute to policy debates about the future of fish in Africa, we applied the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agriculture Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to explore two Pan-African scenarios for fish sector growth: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a high-growth scenario for capture fisheries and aquaculture with accompanying strong gross domestic product growth (HIGH). Post-model analysis was used to estimate employment and aquaculture investment requirements for the sector in Africa. Africa’s fish sector is estimated to support 20.7 million jobs in 2030, and 21.6 million by 2050 under the BAU. Approximately 2.6 people will be employed indirectly along fisheries and aquaculture value chains for every person directly employed in the fish production stage. Under the HIGH scenario, total employment in Africa’s fish food system will reach 58.0 million jobs, representing 2.4% of total projected population in Africa by 2050. Aquaculture production value is estimated to achieve US$ 3.3 billion and US$ 20.4 billion per year under the BAU and HIGH scenarios by 2050, respectively. Farm-gate investment costs for the three key inputs (fish feeds, farm labor, and fish seed) to achieve the aquaculture volumes projected by 2050 are estimated at US$ 1.8 billion per year under the BAU and US$ 11.6 billion per year under the HIGH scenario. Sustained investments are critical to sustain capture fisheries and support aquaculture growth for food system transformation towards healthier diets.
Labor productivity growth and industrialization in Africa
McMillan, Margaret S.; Zeufack, Albert. Cambridge, MA 2021
McMillan, Margaret S.; Zeufack, Albert. Cambridge, MA 2021
DOI : 10.3386/w29570
On the optimality of common external tariffs in Africa: Evidence from the EAC customs union
Bouët, Antoine; Laborde Debucquet, David; Traore, Fousseini. 2021
Bouët, Antoine; Laborde Debucquet, David; Traore, Fousseini. 2021
Abstract | Link (37 B)
We study the determination of a common external tariff for African customs unions, using the case of the EAC. We use trade and tariff data at the HS6 level and a multi-sector multi-country computable general equilibrium model with the consistent tariff aggregator. We assume that the optimal common external tariff will keep three tariff bands and the same distribution of HS6 lines in these three bands as the current distribution. The availability of detailed data allows us to keep detailed information to feed the model, and thus to make more accurate estimates. Compared to the current tariff bands, the optimal common external tariff implies less tariff dispersion and a higher average tariff. This common external tariff maximizes the total welfare of the region. The common external tariff that maximizes the welfare of each member of the region is different: larger for Kenya, the largest country in the zone, and smaller for the other countries, including Rwanda, the smallest country in the zone. The adoption of this common external tariff is a Pareto-superior reform. However, if there is perfect mobility of factors between countries in the zone, divergence of interest about optimal trade policy is larger: if the optimal common external tariff which maximizes regional welfare is implemented, the GDP increases in the largest country, but it decreases in the smallest countries.
Toolkit for cost-benefit analysis of climate information services: An outline
Timu, Anne G.; Aju, Stellamaris; Kramer, Berber. 2021
Timu, Anne G.; Aju, Stellamaris; Kramer, Berber. 2021
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) aims to support the development and scaling of the CGIAR’s most strategic and impactful climate change mitigation strategies across Africa. One of the main objectives of AICCRA is to facilitate the development, and evaluation of tailored climate information services (CIS) packages for small-scale farmers in the target countries. CIS involves the collection, organization, packaging, and distribution of targeted and timely weather and climate information, such as rainfall, temperature, wind, and soil conditions among others (Tall, et al. 2014). Under the AICCRA program, it is expected that farmers used the tailored CIS packages to make farm production decisions that will improve farm productivity and profitability, access to financial services, and risk-taking capacity. In addition, tailoring CIS to meet the needs of vulnerable groups such as women, and the youth is expected to have a direct impact on intra-household dynamics including resource and labor allocation, and household decision making. Collectively, these farm-level changes are expected to improve household long-term resilience to climate change, household food security, and individual sense of wellbeing and agency.
To better understand the individual and societal benefits of CIS, IFPRI is developing a toolkit that evaluates the costs and benefits of country-specific CIS packages. The toolkit will go beyond the conventional approach that measures the net present value of gains in farm productivity and profitability to evaluate impacts on a range of other outcome variables that are not traded in the market (for example, more stable and predictable income flows, improved women’s agency, reductions in workload and intra-household labor allocations, and changes in health and behavioral outcomes).
To better understand the individual and societal benefits of CIS, IFPRI is developing a toolkit that evaluates the costs and benefits of country-specific CIS packages. The toolkit will go beyond the conventional approach that measures the net present value of gains in farm productivity and profitability to evaluate impacts on a range of other outcome variables that are not traded in the market (for example, more stable and predictable income flows, improved women’s agency, reductions in workload and intra-household labor allocations, and changes in health and behavioral outcomes).
Prioritizing agricultural value chains for reviving the food system in Yemen: Input for an agricultural strategy update
Breisinger, Clemens; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred. Washington, DC; Cairo, Egypt 2020
Breisinger, Clemens; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred. Washington, DC; Cairo, Egypt 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133552
Abstract | PDF
In addition to the unprecedented humanitarian crisis and the creation of space for militant groups, the conflict in Yemen is also taking a heavy toll on the economy. According to estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF 2018) together with information on physical damages from the World Bank-led Yemen Dynamic Damage and Needs Assessment (World Bank et al. 2018), the accumulated impact of the conflict from 2015 to 2018 is estimated to be USD47 billion (in 2014 prices), nearly one and a half times total GDP in 2014. The poverty headcount for Yemen is estimated to have increased from 49 percent in 2014 to 77 percent in 2018. The results of economic recovery scenarios run within a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model of the Yemeni economy suggest that unless significant support is provided by the international community for reconstruction, poverty in coming years, even if the conflict ends, will remain high or increase even further. Poverty outcomes of alternative post-conflict transition options range between a national poverty rate of 84 percent in the worst-case scenario of economic stagnation and 50 percent in the best-case scenario that involves the recovery of physical capital, total factor productivity (TFP) growth increases in all sectors, and significant inflows of foreign aid. Under a recovery scenario with lower foreign aid, the poverty headcount is projected to fall, but only modestly. Only under a recovery scenario with high aid inflows are poverty levels projected to be below pre-conflict levels by 2025.
2015 regionalized social accounting matrix for Tunisia: A nexus project SAM
Salhine, Rim Ben; Younes, Anis Ben; El Kadhi, Zouhair; Jebali, Belhassen; Raouf, Mariam. Washington, DC 2020
Salhine, Rim Ben; Younes, Anis Ben; El Kadhi, Zouhair; Jebali, Belhassen; Raouf, Mariam. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133560
Abstract | PDF
A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is an accounting framework that gives a quantitative overview of the structure of the economy over a given time period. It records all transactions between economic agents, while respecting the principles of circularity of flows and balance between revenues and expenditures for each account.
The level of disaggregation of accounts in the matrix varies according to the analyses to be undertaken and data availability. The accounts in a national SAM generally are production activities, commodities, institutions, and factors of production. For economic analyses and planning, a more detailed SAM is constructed. These involve disaggregation of activities, households, and factors of production from the more general national SAM. In such matrices, the national economy often will also be disaggregated into sub-national regions. Such SAMs provide rich datasets to help decision-makers in developing, designing, and evaluating regional economic and investment policies.
As part of the technical cooperation within the (Arab) Agricultural Investment Development Analyzer (AIDA) project, which aims to develop tools for planning and evaluating investment projects in the agricultural sector, the Institut Tunisien de la Compétitivité et des Etudes Quantitatives (ITCEQ – the Tunisian Institute of Competitiveness and Quantitative Studies), in collaboration with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), have built a regionalized SAM of the Tunisian economy with detailed disaggregation at the sector, product, household, and regional levels. This SAM has been constructed using IFPRI's Nexus format, which uses common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs.
The regionalized SAM for Tunisia was built using national accounts statistics for the country, the Supply and Use Tables for 2015, which are produced by the National Institute of Statistics (NIS). The regionalized matrix is constructed in three steps – national, household, and regional.
• The national 2015 SAM for Tunisia includes 46 sectors and 46 products.
• For the household SAM, factors of production are split into 13 categories. Capital is disaggregated into four subcategories: crops, livestock, mining, and other. Land is a separate factor of production category. Labor is disaggregated into four education-level categories and across rural and urban areas. For the household SAM, household accounts are split into 15 categories by rural farm, rural nonfarm, and urban categories and then by national per capita expenditure quintiles.
• For the regionalized SAM, sectoral production, production factors, and household groups are disaggregated into seven subnational regions: Greater Tunis, North East, North West, Center East, Center West, South East, and South West. The regional 2015 SAM in total has 105 household groups and is composed of 513 rows x 513 columns.
The level of disaggregation of accounts in the matrix varies according to the analyses to be undertaken and data availability. The accounts in a national SAM generally are production activities, commodities, institutions, and factors of production. For economic analyses and planning, a more detailed SAM is constructed. These involve disaggregation of activities, households, and factors of production from the more general national SAM. In such matrices, the national economy often will also be disaggregated into sub-national regions. Such SAMs provide rich datasets to help decision-makers in developing, designing, and evaluating regional economic and investment policies.
As part of the technical cooperation within the (Arab) Agricultural Investment Development Analyzer (AIDA) project, which aims to develop tools for planning and evaluating investment projects in the agricultural sector, the Institut Tunisien de la Compétitivité et des Etudes Quantitatives (ITCEQ – the Tunisian Institute of Competitiveness and Quantitative Studies), in collaboration with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), have built a regionalized SAM of the Tunisian economy with detailed disaggregation at the sector, product, household, and regional levels. This SAM has been constructed using IFPRI's Nexus format, which uses common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs.
The regionalized SAM for Tunisia was built using national accounts statistics for the country, the Supply and Use Tables for 2015, which are produced by the National Institute of Statistics (NIS). The regionalized matrix is constructed in three steps – national, household, and regional.
• The national 2015 SAM for Tunisia includes 46 sectors and 46 products.
• For the household SAM, factors of production are split into 13 categories. Capital is disaggregated into four subcategories: crops, livestock, mining, and other. Land is a separate factor of production category. Labor is disaggregated into four education-level categories and across rural and urban areas. For the household SAM, household accounts are split into 15 categories by rural farm, rural nonfarm, and urban categories and then by national per capita expenditure quintiles.
• For the regionalized SAM, sectoral production, production factors, and household groups are disaggregated into seven subnational regions: Greater Tunis, North East, North West, Center East, Center West, South East, and South West. The regional 2015 SAM in total has 105 household groups and is composed of 513 rows x 513 columns.
Food policy indicators: Tracking change
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2020
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293670_08
Abstract | PDF
Decision-makers and policy analysts need solid evidence and timely information to develop and implement effective food policies. The International Food Policy Research Institute develops and shares global public goods—including datasets, indicators, and indexes—as part of its mission to provide research-based policy solutions that sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. This information can be used to gauge the impact of policy changes and the progress made on specific aspects of development. This section highlights five of the indicator series generated by IFPRI research and illustrates some recent trends revealed by these datasets. Indicators include investments in agricultural research, public spending on agriculture, capacity for food policy research, agricultural total factor productivity, and projections for agricultural production, food consumption, and risk of hunger to 2030 and 2050. The full datasets and more information about how the indicators are calculated and how they can be used by policymakers is available online.
Youth: Including Africa’s young people in food systems
Mueller, Valerie; Rosenbach, Gracie; Thurlow, James. Washington, DC 2020
Mueller, Valerie; Rosenbach, Gracie; Thurlow, James. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293670_03
Abstract | PDF
African governments have made youth employment a policy priority, and African youth are demanding policies that improve their job prospects.
KEY FINDINGS
- Africa’s working-age population is growing by 20 million a year, and by 2050 will be growing by 30 million a year, raising questions about whether the region can create enough jobs for young people.
- Concerns should not be overblown—the share of young people in the working-age population peaked in Africa at roughly 38 percent in 2001, not much larger than the peak share in other developing regions during their own “youth bulges.”
Africa’s rural areas and food systems will have to play a bigger role in absorbing young job seekers than they did in other regions, given the continued growth of rural populations.
- Opportunities in food systems for youth may be overestimated: Young farmers who are familiar with information technologies are not necessarily more likely than their elders to adopt improved inputs or increase productivity. Nor are they more likely to operate or work for a nonfarm enterprise or to migrate to large urban centers.
- Broad-based development policies that create opportunities for all rural people may do more to support the growing youth population than polices designed specifically for youth.
KEY FINDINGS
- Africa’s working-age population is growing by 20 million a year, and by 2050 will be growing by 30 million a year, raising questions about whether the region can create enough jobs for young people.
- Concerns should not be overblown—the share of young people in the working-age population peaked in Africa at roughly 38 percent in 2001, not much larger than the peak share in other developing regions during their own “youth bulges.”
Africa’s rural areas and food systems will have to play a bigger role in absorbing young job seekers than they did in other regions, given the continued growth of rural populations.
- Opportunities in food systems for youth may be overestimated: Young farmers who are familiar with information technologies are not necessarily more likely than their elders to adopt improved inputs or increase productivity. Nor are they more likely to operate or work for a nonfarm enterprise or to migrate to large urban centers.
- Broad-based development policies that create opportunities for all rural people may do more to support the growing youth population than polices designed specifically for youth.
2020 Global food policy report: Building inclusive food systems: Synopsis
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2020
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293694
Abstract | PDF
Food systems are at a critical juncture—they are evolving quickly to meet growing and changing demand but are not serving everyone’s needs. Building more inclusive food systems can bring a wide range of economic and development benefits to all people, especially the poor and disadvantaged. IFPRI’s 2020 Global Food Policy Report examines the policies and investments and the growing range of tools and technologies that can promote inclusion. Chapters examine the imperative of inclusion, challenges faced by smallholders, youth, women, and conflict-affected people, and the opportunities offered by expanding agrifood value chains and national food system transformations. Critical questions addressed include: How can inclusive food systems help break the intergenerational cycle of poverty and malnutrition? \What can be done to strengthen the midstream of food value chains to improve rural access to jobs, markets, and services? Will Africa’s food systems generate sufficient jobs for the growing youth population? How can women be empowered within food system processes, from household decisions to policymaking? Can refugees and other conflict-affected people be integrated into food systems to help them rebuild their lives? How can national food system transformations contribute to greater dietary diversity, food safety, and food quality for all? Regional sections look at how inclusion can be improved around the world in 2020 and beyond. The report also presents interesting trends revealed by IFPRI’s food policy indicators and datasets.
Regional developments
Badiane, Ousmane; Collins, Julia; Makombe, Tsitsi; Abdelaziz, Fatma; Breisinger, Clemens; Khouri, Nadim; Thurlow, James; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Romashkin, Roman; Park, Allen; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Rashid, Shahidur; Ahmed, Akhter; Rana, Abdul Wajid; Chen, Kevin Z.; Timmer, Peter; Dawe, David; Li, Mengyao; Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio; Piñeiro, Valeria. Washington, DC 2020
Badiane, Ousmane; Collins, Julia; Makombe, Tsitsi; Abdelaziz, Fatma; Breisinger, Clemens; Khouri, Nadim; Thurlow, James; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Romashkin, Roman; Park, Allen; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Rashid, Shahidur; Ahmed, Akhter; Rana, Abdul Wajid; Chen, Kevin Z.; Timmer, Peter; Dawe, David; Li, Mengyao; Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio; Piñeiro, Valeria. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293670_07
Abstract | PDF
BUILDING INCLUSIVE FOOD SYSTEMS TO HELP REACH THE GOAL OF ENDING HUNGER and malnutrition globally will require innovation and investment at the regional and country levels. This section discusses problems, policies, and prospects for regional and national food systems in 2020 and beyond across the major regions: Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Central Asia, South Asia, East and Southeast Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. The challenges and potential of inclusion to transform food systems for better well-being and nutrition are examined for each region, along with other current topics
2020 Global food policy report: Building inclusive food systems
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2020
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293670
Abstract | PDF
Food systems are at a critical juncture—they are evolving quickly to meet growing and changing demand but are not serving everyone’s needs. Building more inclusive food systems can bring a wide range of economic and development benefits to all people, especially the poor and disadvantaged. IFPRI’s 2020 Global Food Policy Report examines the policies and investments and the growing range of tools and technologies that can promote inclusion. Chapters examine the imperative of inclusion, challenges faced by smallholders, youth, women, and conflict-affected people, and the opportunities offered by expanding agrifood value chains and national food system transformations. Critical questions addressed include: How can inclusive food systems help break the intergenerational cycle of poverty and malnutrition? \What can be done to strengthen the midstream of food value chains to improve rural access to jobs, markets, and services? Will Africa’s food systems generate sufficient jobs for the growing youth population? How can women be empowered within food system processes, from household decisions to policymaking? Can refugees and other conflict-affected people be integrated into food systems to help them rebuild their lives? How can national food system transformations contribute to greater dietary diversity, food safety, and food quality for all? Regional sections look at how inclusion can be improved around the world in 2020 and beyond. The report also presents interesting trends revealed by IFPRI’s food policy indicators and datasets.
Smallholders and rural people: Making food system value chains inclusive
Vos, Rob; Cattaneo, Andrea. Washington, DC 2020
Vos, Rob; Cattaneo, Andrea. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293670_02
Abstract | PDF
Smallholders often struggle to connect with actors in the middle of the food supply chain as a result of limited access to land and inputs and lack of capacity to scale up or implement new practices.
KEY FINDINGS
- Propelled by urbanization, rising incomes, and changing diets, food markets are expanding in Africa and South Asia, creating enormous potential for job and income opportunities along food supply chains.
- Small and medium-sized enterprises have proliferated in storage, logistics, transportation, and wholesale and retail distribution to meet growing rural and urban food demands. This so-called quiet revolution appears to be taking place out of sight of policymakers, leaving much of the potential for inclusive value-chain development untapped.
- Smallholders often struggle to connect with actors in the middle of the food supply chain as a result of limited access to land and inputs and lack of capacity to scale up or implement new practices to meet quality requirements.
- Lack of infrastructure and skills is holding back the development of food supply chains in low-income Africa and Asia, especially where the potential is greatest: in small towns and intermediate cities near rural farmlands.
KEY FINDINGS
- Propelled by urbanization, rising incomes, and changing diets, food markets are expanding in Africa and South Asia, creating enormous potential for job and income opportunities along food supply chains.
- Small and medium-sized enterprises have proliferated in storage, logistics, transportation, and wholesale and retail distribution to meet growing rural and urban food demands. This so-called quiet revolution appears to be taking place out of sight of policymakers, leaving much of the potential for inclusive value-chain development untapped.
- Smallholders often struggle to connect with actors in the middle of the food supply chain as a result of limited access to land and inputs and lack of capacity to scale up or implement new practices to meet quality requirements.
- Lack of infrastructure and skills is holding back the development of food supply chains in low-income Africa and Asia, especially where the potential is greatest: in small towns and intermediate cities near rural farmlands.
Refugees and conflict-affected people: Integrating displaced communities into food systems
Vos, Rob; Jackson, Julius; James, Sally; Sánchez, Marco V.. Washington, DC 2020
Vos, Rob; Jackson, Julius; James, Sally; Sánchez, Marco V.. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293670_05
Abstract | PDF
Humanitarian interventions that have the greatest likelihood of success involve investing in local agrifood systems and including conflict-affected people in strategies for building, reviving, or strengthening these systems.
KEY FINDINGS
- More than half of all undernourished people live in countries affected by conflict.
- Food insecurity and dispossession of agricultural assets can both trigger and result from civil strife.
- Most conflict-affected countries are overwhelmingly rural, and rural populations are more vulnerable to climate shocks that often compound conflict situations.
- Refugee host countries must often decide whether to focus responses on preparing affected populations to return home or helping them become economically self-reliant.
- Integrating conflict-affected people into food systems— either in their new homes or the places they fled—can help them rebuild their lives.
KEY FINDINGS
- More than half of all undernourished people live in countries affected by conflict.
- Food insecurity and dispossession of agricultural assets can both trigger and result from civil strife.
- Most conflict-affected countries are overwhelmingly rural, and rural populations are more vulnerable to climate shocks that often compound conflict situations.
- Refugee host countries must often decide whether to focus responses on preparing affected populations to return home or helping them become economically self-reliant.
- Integrating conflict-affected people into food systems— either in their new homes or the places they fled—can help them rebuild their lives.
Reshaping food systems: The imperative of inclusion
Fan, Shenggen; Swinnen, Johan. Washington, DC 2020
Fan, Shenggen; Swinnen, Johan. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293670_01
Abstract | PDF
Redesigning food systems to be inclusive of poor and vulnerable people is a moral imperative.
KEY FINDINGS
- Inclusive food systems can help break the intergenerational cycle of poverty, hunger, and malnutrition.
- Including marginalized people in food systems can help them secure well-paying jobs and make gains in other areas that impact long-term livelihoods, such as education.
- A value chain framework is key to designing inclusive food systems—from improving farmers’ access to resources and information to creating off-farm jobs and enterprises in the midstream of the chain.
- Recent innovations such as mobile phone technologies offer opportunities for marginalized and excluded populations to access information and services, and to participate all along the food value chain.
- Education is a major driver of inclusion, increasing lifelong income and improving nutrition, health, civic engagement, and gender equality.
- Marginalized people should be empowered to make strategic choices within food systems and have a voice in holding governments accountable for delivery of inclusive food systems.
KEY FINDINGS
- Inclusive food systems can help break the intergenerational cycle of poverty, hunger, and malnutrition.
- Including marginalized people in food systems can help them secure well-paying jobs and make gains in other areas that impact long-term livelihoods, such as education.
- A value chain framework is key to designing inclusive food systems—from improving farmers’ access to resources and information to creating off-farm jobs and enterprises in the midstream of the chain.
- Recent innovations such as mobile phone technologies offer opportunities for marginalized and excluded populations to access information and services, and to participate all along the food value chain.
- Education is a major driver of inclusion, increasing lifelong income and improving nutrition, health, civic engagement, and gender equality.
- Marginalized people should be empowered to make strategic choices within food systems and have a voice in holding governments accountable for delivery of inclusive food systems.
Too much of a good thing? Evidence that fertilizer subsidies lead to overapplication in Egypt
Kurdi, Sikandra; Mahmoud, Mai; Abay, Kibrom A.; Breisinger, Clemens. Washington, DC 2020
Kurdi, Sikandra; Mahmoud, Mai; Abay, Kibrom A.; Breisinger, Clemens. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133652
Abstract | PDF
As part of a national policy to ensure a certain level of food self-sufficiency in strategic crops, the government of Egypt subsidizes nitrogen fertilizer directly by distributing quotas of subsidized fertilizers to farmers and indirectly by subsidizing natural gas used by local fertilizer factories. The implication of this subsidy on farmers’ fertilizer demand and productivity remains unknown. Using a detailed agricultural survey collected from smallholder farmers in Upper Egypt, we show that nitrogen fertilizer application rates are substantially in excess of crop-specific agronomic recommendations. We exploit eligibility criteria and other sources of variation to show that farm plots with easier access to the subsidy tend to use more subsidized nitrogen fertilizer and less phosphate fertilizer. Easier access to the subsidy increases use of total nitrogen fertilizer per unit of land, mainly because of the increase in subsidized nitrogen fertilizer. In particular, the fertilizer subsidy program in Egypt is associated with significant overapplication of nitrogen fertilizer. Such overapplication of fertilizer is expected to adversely affect soil, water, and environmental health. Our findings have important policy implications for Egypt and other African countries known for input subsidy programs. As Egypt is currently moving on from the successful implementation of a comprehensive macroeconomic reform program towards sector-level reforms, our results suggest that eliminating fertilizer subsidies is a good place to start.
COVID-19 and the Egyptian economy: Estimating the impacts of expected reductions in tourism, Suez Canal revenues, and remittances
Breisinger, Clemens; Abdelatif, Abla; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred. Washington, DC 2020
Breisinger, Clemens; Abdelatif, Abla; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133663
Abstract | PDF
Egypt’s recent economic success will almost certainly be interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the likely impact on the Egyptian economy of a significant reduction in tourism, payments received from the Suez Canal, and remittances from Egyptians working abroad because of the slowdown in the global economy due to the COVID-19 virus.
Our results suggest that COVID-19 could reduce national GDP by between 0.7 and 0.8 percent (EGP 36 to 41 billion) for each month that the global crisis continues.
Similarly, household consumption and expenditure is estimated to decline on average by between EGP 153 and EGP 180 per person per month, which is between 9.0 and 10.6 percent of average household income.
The cumulative loss in GDP from these three external shocks alone could amount to between 2.1 and 4.8 percent of annual GDP in 2020 if the crisis lasts for 3 to 6 months.
While the country’s focus currently is rightly on fighting the health crisis and mitigating its immediate impacts, planning on how to re-open the economy should also start now.
Our results suggest that COVID-19 could reduce national GDP by between 0.7 and 0.8 percent (EGP 36 to 41 billion) for each month that the global crisis continues.
Similarly, household consumption and expenditure is estimated to decline on average by between EGP 153 and EGP 180 per person per month, which is between 9.0 and 10.6 percent of average household income.
The cumulative loss in GDP from these three external shocks alone could amount to between 2.1 and 4.8 percent of annual GDP in 2020 if the crisis lasts for 3 to 6 months.
While the country’s focus currently is rightly on fighting the health crisis and mitigating its immediate impacts, planning on how to re-open the economy should also start now.
The CAADP 2020 biennial review: Why many countries are off-track
Benin, Samuel. Washington, DC 2020
Benin, Samuel. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133721
Abstract | PDF
This note analyzes the trajectory of the benchmark and its implications for the effort required of countries to remain on-track or get on-track toward achieving the goals and targets of the Malabo Declaration by 2025. It also analyzes the change in the overall score obtained by different countries between the 2018 and 2020 BRs by decomposing the contribution of different indictors to the change. This helps to explain why fewer countries were on-track in the 2020 BR compared to the 2018 BR. The note concludes with a look at the potential challenges countries may face, most notably those brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, and prospects for them to remain or get on-track in future BRs.
Model-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen
Breisinger, Clemens; Engelke, Wilfried; Mukashov, Askar; Wiebelt, Manfred. Washington, DC 2020
Breisinger, Clemens; Engelke, Wilfried; Mukashov, Askar; Wiebelt, Manfred. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133736
Abstract | PDF
Evidence-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction is often constrained by missing data and the shortcomings of conventional analytical methods. To overcome these constraints, we use economy-wide modeling methods to model the impact of war and reconstruction possibilities for the economy of Yemen. We first calibrate the model to pre-conflict data (2014) and validate it by replicating the most recent available dynamic needs assessments for Yemen that were elaborated by the World Bank. We then report model scenario results for unobserved development indicators, such as estimates for sector-level growth, employment, and poverty. For the post-conflict period, we use the assumptions of a recent dynamic needs assessment and assume gradual reconstruction of the war-induced damages by the target year 2024. Then we focus on uncertain institutional factors and investigate their importance for the country’s socio-economic development. Finally, we assess the potential structural characteristics of Yemen’s economy in the year 2024 and analyze potential risks and trade-offs associated with government’s institutional performance and the implications these have for the pace of post-conflict reconstruction.
The impact of COVID-19 on Tunisia’s economy, agri-food system, and households
ElKadhi, Zouhair; Elsabbagh, Dalia; Frija, Aymen; Lakoud, Thouraya; Wiebelt, Manfred; Breisinger, Clemens. Washington, DC 2020
ElKadhi, Zouhair; Elsabbagh, Dalia; Frija, Aymen; Lakoud, Thouraya; Wiebelt, Manfred; Breisinger, Clemens. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133737
Abstract | PDF
The COVID-19 crisis is expected to lead to a 46.4 percent decline in Tunisia’s GDP during the 2nd quarter of 2020 (April to June). The industrial sector will be hit hardest, with output falling by 52.7 percent, followed closely by services (-49.0 percent) and agriculture (-16.2 percent). These high losses are a result of the complete lockdown imposed in the country to contain the pandemic.
Higher-income urban households will see the largest income losses, although lower-income urban households also will experience significant reductions in their income. As a policy response, social transfers towards poorer households will reduce the adverse welfare impact of these drops in household income. Government policies to support struggling businesses will allow economic activities to revive more rapidly when the lockdown loosens. Consequently, comprehensive planning by the Government of Tunisia to re-open the economy will be critical to reduce the pandemic’s adverse impact on the country’s economy in the longer-term, reducing losses of employment and income, especially in manufacturing and retail.
Higher-income urban households will see the largest income losses, although lower-income urban households also will experience significant reductions in their income. As a policy response, social transfers towards poorer households will reduce the adverse welfare impact of these drops in household income. Government policies to support struggling businesses will allow economic activities to revive more rapidly when the lockdown loosens. Consequently, comprehensive planning by the Government of Tunisia to re-open the economy will be critical to reduce the pandemic’s adverse impact on the country’s economy in the longer-term, reducing losses of employment and income, especially in manufacturing and retail.
COVID-19 and global food security
Swinnen, Johan, ed.; McDermott, John, ed.. Washington, DC 2020
Swinnen, Johan, ed.; McDermott, John, ed.. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133762
Abstract | PDF
The coronavirus pandemic has sparked not only a health crisis but also an economic crisis, which together pose a serious threat to food security, particularly in poorer countries. COVID-19 & Global Food Security brings together a groundbreaking series of IFPRI blog posts looking at the impacts of COVID-19 and the policy responses. IFPRI researchers and guest bloggers provide key insights and analysis on how the global pandemic is affecting global poverty and food security and nutrition, food trade and supply chains, gender, employment, and a variety of policy interventions, as well as reflections on how we can use these lessons to better prepare for future pandemics. These pieces draw on a combination of conceptual arguments, global and country-level simulation models, in-country surveys, case studies, and expert opinions. Together, they present a comprehensive picture of the current and potential impact of COVID-19 and the world’s policy responses on global food and nutrition security.
Impact of COVID-19 on the Egyptian economy: Economic sectors, jobs, and households
Breisinger, Clemens; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred; Kamaly, Ahmed; Karara, Mouchera. Washington, DC 2020
Breisinger, Clemens; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred; Kamaly, Ahmed; Karara, Mouchera. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133764
Abstract | PDF
The COVID-19 crisis may lead to a 1.1 percent decline in Egypt’s GDP during the 4th quarter (April to June) of the 2019/20 fiscal year, compared to the same quarter in 2018/19. Without the Government of Egypt’s COVID-19 emergency response package, GDP in Q4 may have declined by 8.7 percent. Tak-ing the emergency response pack-age into account, we estimate an annual growth rate of 3.8 percent for FY 2019/20. Without the emer-gency response package, annual growth for FY 2019/20 may have been as low as 1.9 percent. The services sector is hit hardest, falling by 10.9 percent, followed by industry at -8.3 percent. Agriculture is the most resilient sector. However, these losses are lower than those expected in comparable countries, especially those that resorted to extended periods of full lockdowns. Impacts on Egypt’s agri-food system are less severe than elsewhere in the economy. Most damage will occur in nonfarm components of the agri-food system due to falling consumer demand. Although higher-income households face the largest income losses, lower-income households also will see their incomes decline significantly. The level of social protection required to fully offset the income losses of poor households is likely to be prohibitive, especially given falling revenues from reduced economic activity. Continuing to gradually open the economy again will be critical for avoiding permanent job losses and increases in poverty for the coming year. The process of re-opening the economy may also provide opportunities for fostering more private sector-driven and sustainable economic transformation.
Investing in the agri-food system for post-COVID-19 recovery: An economywide evaluation of public investments in Egypt
Thurlow, James; Holtemeyer, Brian; Kassim, Yumna; Kurdi, Sikandra; Randriamamonjy, Josée; Raouf, Mariam; Elsabbagh, Dalia; Wiebelt, Manfred; Breisinger, Clemens. Washington, DC 2020
Thurlow, James; Holtemeyer, Brian; Kassim, Yumna; Kurdi, Sikandra; Randriamamonjy, Josée; Raouf, Mariam; Elsabbagh, Dalia; Wiebelt, Manfred; Breisinger, Clemens. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133773
Abstract | PDF
This note presents the results of an evaluation of public investment options for Egypt’s agri-food system. Nine agriculture-related public investments are considered, including targeting public spending to expand farm production, e.g., irrigation improvements, input subsidies, agricultural research, and extension, and to promote downstream agro-processing and marketing. The outcome indicators considered are economic (GDP) growth, incomes of the poor, job creation, and dietary diversity. IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide model is used for the evaluation because it captures linkages between sectors, households, and rural-urban economies and measures changes within and beyond the agri-food system. RIAPA is linked to the Agricultural Investment and Data Analysis (AIDA) module that tracks investment impacts and costs over time. The ranked results of the public investment options considered, summarized in the table here, can help prioritize agri-food system investments for post-COVID-19 recovery.
Winners and losers from COVID-19: Evidence from Google search data for Egypt
Abay, Kibrom A.; Ibrahim, Hosam. Washington, DC 2020
Abay, Kibrom A.; Ibrahim, Hosam. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133776
Abstract | PDF
Evolving pieces of evidence show that services are hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, both globally and in Egypt. Employing Google search data, we examine the implications of COVID-19 on demand for various services in Egypt.
• We find that demand for those services that require face-to-face interaction, including hotels and restaurants, air travel and tourism services, significantly dipped after Egypt detected the first COVID-19 case and more so after the Egyptian government introduced major restrictions and curfews. For instance, in the first two months of the outbreak of the pandemic, February and March, demand for hotel and restaurant services contracted by about 70 percent.
• In contrast, demand for services that substitute or reduce personal interactions, such as information and communications technologies (ICT) and delivery services, have enjoyed a significant boost. Demand for ICT services tripled, while demand for delivery services doubled in the four months since the outbreak of the pandemic.
• Intuitively, these results suggest that individuals and enterprises operating in these sectors are expected to experience heterogenous impacts and damages associated with the pandemic. Our results, along with other evolving evidence, reinforce that those services and sectors negatively affected by the outbreak and spread of COVID-19 deserve attention.
• Finally, our analysis highlights the potential of near real-time "big data" to substitute and complement conventional data sources to estimate economic impacts and, hence, inform immediate and medium-term policy responses.
• We find that demand for those services that require face-to-face interaction, including hotels and restaurants, air travel and tourism services, significantly dipped after Egypt detected the first COVID-19 case and more so after the Egyptian government introduced major restrictions and curfews. For instance, in the first two months of the outbreak of the pandemic, February and March, demand for hotel and restaurant services contracted by about 70 percent.
• In contrast, demand for services that substitute or reduce personal interactions, such as information and communications technologies (ICT) and delivery services, have enjoyed a significant boost. Demand for ICT services tripled, while demand for delivery services doubled in the four months since the outbreak of the pandemic.
• Intuitively, these results suggest that individuals and enterprises operating in these sectors are expected to experience heterogenous impacts and damages associated with the pandemic. Our results, along with other evolving evidence, reinforce that those services and sectors negatively affected by the outbreak and spread of COVID-19 deserve attention.
• Finally, our analysis highlights the potential of near real-time "big data" to substitute and complement conventional data sources to estimate economic impacts and, hence, inform immediate and medium-term policy responses.
COVID-19 lockdowns threaten Africa’s vital informal urban food trade
Resnick, Danielle. Washington, DC 2020
Resnick, Danielle. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133762_16
Abstract | PDF
As COVID-19 begins its spread across Africa, concerns are growing about how the pandemic will affect the region’s already fragile food systems, especially in densely packed cities. Much of the region’s urban population works in the informal sector — many in wet markets and as street vendors — and depends on it for food, so lockdowns and other social distancing measures could pose major problems both for consumers and workers.
COVID-19 border policies create problems for African trade and economic pain for communities
Bouët, Antoine; Laborde Debucquet, David. Washington, DC 2020
Bouët, Antoine; Laborde Debucquet, David. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133762_15
Abstract | PDF
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a range of border controls in countries around the world to curb the spread of the disease. In Africa, these moves have interrupted progress toward economic integration. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), for example, was supposed to establish continentwide free movement of goods starting on July 1. Now, the African Union Commission has proposed postponing the launch until January 1, 2021. In addition, trade restrictions implemented in Africa and elsewhere in response to the pandemic are fueling fears of a new food crisis on the continent (see IFPRI’s tracking of export restrictions).
Economic impact of COVID-19 on tourism and remittances: Insights from Egypt
Breisinger, Clemens; Latif, Abla Abdel; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred. Washington, DC 2020
Breisinger, Clemens; Latif, Abla Abdel; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133762_12
Abstract | PDF
Using the SAM multiplier model for Egypt, we simulate the individual and combined effects of a collapse in the tourism sector and reductions in Suez Canal revenues and in foreign remittances under more and less pessimistic scenarios. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to measuring short-term direct and indirect impacts of unanticipated, rapid-onset demand- or supply-side economic shocks such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We model the demand shocks as the anticipated reductions in tourism, Suez Canal, and remittances revenues.
Africa’s growing risk of diseases that spread from animals to people
Bett, Bernard; Randolph, Delia; McDermott, John. Washington, DC 2020
Bett, Bernard; Randolph, Delia; McDermott, John. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133762_28
Abstract | PDF
Three-quarters of emerging human infectious disease outbreaks are “zoonotic,” meaning they originate from viruses and other pathogens infecting animals that then “jump” species to infect people. This “species jump” by pathogens is not new — it has occurred throughout pre- and recorded history. But in the last half of the last century, with the widespread use of antibiotics and vaccines, many had begun to believe that the era of infectious disease was ending. The story of epidemics, however, is always evolving. As we see clearly now with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which is believed to have originated from virus-infected meat or live animals sold in a traditional “wet” food market in Wuhan, China, our hopes for the end of infectious disease were badly misplaced. Over the last 100 years, in fact, there has been growing evidence of not less but more frequent emergence and greater spread of zoonotic pathogens in humans and animals. In recent decades, most of these zoonotic pathogens wer
COVID-19 lockdowns have imposed substantial economic costs on countries in Africa
Thurlow, James. Washington, DC 2020
Thurlow, James. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133762_04
Abstract | PDF
It is too soon to assess the full economic impacts that COVID-19 lockdowns will have on developing countries. But early research indicates that many African economies are significantly impacted and that poorer households are struggling. IFPRI is conducting a series of country studies, in collaboration with local and government partners, that use economywide models to estimate the impacts of lockdowns, assess the exposure of food systems, and identify vulnerable population groups.
Meat, milk and more: Policy innovations to shepherd inclusive and sustainable livestock systems in Africa
Malabo Montpellier Panel. Dakar, Senegal 2020
Malabo Montpellier Panel. Dakar, Senegal 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293861
Abstract | PDF
Meat, Milk & More: Policy Innovations to Shepherd Inclusive and Sustainable Livestock Systems in Africa highlights options for sustainably promoting growth in the livestock sector, drawing from what four African countries—Ethiopia, Mali, South Africa, and Uganda—have done successfully in terms of institutional and policy innovation as well as programmatic interventions. By adapting these lessons to countries’ specific contexts and scaling them up across the continent, African governments can meet their national and international commitments to agricultural growth and transformation.
Climate adaptation and job prospects for young people in agriculture
Cenacchi, Nicola; Brooks, Karen; Dunston, Shahnila; Wiebe, Keith D.; Arndt, Channing; Hartley, Faaiqa; Robertson, Richard D.. Washington, DC 2020
Cenacchi, Nicola; Brooks, Karen; Dunston, Shahnila; Wiebe, Keith D.; Arndt, Channing; Hartley, Faaiqa; Robertson, Richard D.. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293892
Abstract | PDF
According to the United Nations, the world’s population will grow by 2 billion people over the coming decades to reach 9.7 billion by 2050 (UNDESA-DP 2019a). The dignity and life prospects of those additional 2 billion people will depend on their ability to meet basic needs, such as food, clothing, and shelter, and their access to adequate employment. The most pressing need for jobs will be felt in those regions and countries that have not yet gone through the demographic transition, and where the cohort of young people is growing rapidly. The challenge will be compounded by an increasingly crowded, more competitive world with fewer natural resources per capita, and by the threat of climate change, which is projected to affect every sector of the economy (Arent 2014).
IFNA virtual regional meeting
Initiative for Food and Nutrition Security in Africa (IFNA). Washington, DC 2020
Initiative for Food and Nutrition Security in Africa (IFNA). Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133995
Abstract | PDF
Co-chair organizations of the Initiative for Food and Nutrition Security in Africa (IFNA), the African Union Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD) and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), as well as the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the Eastern African Community (EAC), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) jointly held the IFNA Virtual Regional Meeting on 12 August, 2020. The objectives of the meeting were to familiarize the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) and nonIFNA participating countries with IFNA, including approaches, achievements to date, and IFNA’s 3-year strategic direction; therefore, laying the foundation for future collaboration between IFNA, RECs, and their Member States in nutrition improvement initiatives. A total of 71 people participated in the meeting. The meeting program is attached as Appendix 1.
The impact of quality foundational skills on youth employment in Africa: Does institutional quality matter?
Olagunju, Kehinde O.; Ogunniyi, Adebayo; Oguntegbe, Kunle F.; Oyetunde-Usman, Zainab A.; Adenuga, Adewale H.; Andam, Kwaw S.. Washington, DC 2020
Olagunju, Kehinde O.; Ogunniyi, Adebayo; Oguntegbe, Kunle F.; Oyetunde-Usman, Zainab A.; Adenuga, Adewale H.; Andam, Kwaw S.. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133999
Abstract | PDF
Despite impressive progress in the economic performance of many African countries in recent years, youth unemployment remains one of the continent’s main socioeconomic and political problems. This study employs panel data covering 49 African countries for the period 2000–2017 to provide the first attempt to explicitly examine the dynamic relationship between quality foundational skills, measured by basic education quality (teacher-pupil ratio), and youth unemployment, while considering the conditional role of institutional capacity, measured by control of corruption, regulatory quality, and financial development. The empirical estimation in this paper is based on a two-step system generalized method of moments (SGMM), in order to control for unobserved heterogeneity and potential endogeneity of all the explanatory variables. The following are the main findings: First, youth unemployment is persistent in Africa. Second, quality of basic education exerts a negative impact on youth unemployment. Third, greater control of corruption, improved regulatory quality, and better structured financial sectors strengthen the effect of quality basic education in reducing youth unemployment. These findings provide a clear policy pathway for reducting youth unemployment. In particular, we recommend that better quality basic education, a well-structured financial structure, and institutional quality should constitute a fundamental component of the policy mix to reduce youth unemployment in Africa.
Summary and conclusions [In Africa agriculture trade monitor 2020]
Bouët, Antoine; Odjo, Sunday P.; Zaki, Chahir. Washington, DC 2020
Bouët, Antoine; Odjo, Sunday P.; Zaki, Chahir. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293908_con
Abstract | PDF
The 2020 AATM presented an overview of trade in agriculture products in Africa and highlighted the main impediments that affect intra- and extra-African trade. This final chapter summarizes the major findings of this report and offers some policy recommendations for improving agricultural exports performance, especially in the context of the unprecedented uncertainty the world is facing with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Africa agriculture trade monitor 2020: Synopsis
Bouët, Antoine, ed.; Odjo, Sunday P., ed.; Zaki, Chahir, ed.. Washington, DC 2020
Bouët, Antoine, ed.; Odjo, Sunday P., ed.; Zaki, Chahir, ed.. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293977
Abstract | PDF
The 2020 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor, the third in this series of flagship reports, presents an overview of trade in agriculture products in Africa and highlights the main impediments that affect intra- and extra-African trade. This year’s report includes chapters focusing on intra-Africa trade integration for agricultural products, including the role of nontariff measures, and on the competitiveness of African value chains that are crucial for food security (cereals, sugar, vegetable oils). The importance and measurement of informal cross-border trade for agricultural products is also examined. The final chapter looks at regional integration experiences in Southern Africa, with a focus on the Southern Africa Development Community. The report offers policy recommendations for improving agricultural exports performance, especially in the context of the unprecedented uncertainty the world is facing with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Five years of regional risk pooling: An updated cost-benefit analysis of the African risk capacity
Kramer, Berber; Rusconi, Rob; Glauber, Joseph W.. Washington, DC 2020
Kramer, Berber; Rusconi, Rob; Glauber, Joseph W.. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134046
Abstract | PDF
An initial cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of the African Risk Capacity (ARC), published in 2013, showed that regional risk pooling for severe droughts could increase benefits to poor households by as much as US$ 1.90 per dollar invested, due to the speed, cost and targeting gains from improved risk financing and contingency planning of a humanitarian response. We revisit the assumptions underpinning this initial CBA to reflect current ARC operations, and we update the CBA using new methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of regional risk pooling to finance disaster risk management. Under the revised methods and assumptions, the increase in benefits to the poor will have exceeded the costs of regional risk pooling, but not by as much as US$ 1.90 per dollar invested. This is because ARC premiums have been higher than assumed in the initial CBA, and insured countries have used ARC payouts mainly to distribute food aid, instead of leveraging state-contingent welfare schemes with potentially larger speed, cost and targeting gains. We discuss potential ways to lower premiums and strengthen the benefits to poor households, highlighting also the potential to realize welfare gains from improved risk management and investments ex ante, even during years without insurance payout.
Concluding remarks [in 2020 Annual trends and outlook report]
Resnick, Danielle; Diao, Xinshen; Tadesse, Getaw. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
Resnick, Danielle; Diao, Xinshen; Tadesse, Getaw. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293946_17
Abstract | PDF
The objectives of the 2020 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) are twofold. First, the report tracks past and current African agricultural policies, and evaluates their limitations and achievements. Second, it identifies further policy interventions to improve agricultural outcomes and stimulate broader transformation throughout the agrifood system so as to contribute to healthy and nutritious diets, environmental sustainability, and job creation. Collectively, the chapters converge on a number of key lessons: consolidate recent successes without repeating past mistakes, ensure that policies are both holistic and nuanced, and strengthen the broader policy and institutional setting in which sector-specific policy decisions are embedded. This chapter summarizes these findings and concludes that even though COVID-19 has been a significant global shock, it does not need to derail the region’s agrifood system transformation aspirations.
Why food safety matters to Africa: Making the case for policy action
Jaffee, Steve; Henson, Spencer; Grace, Delia; Ambrosio, Mateo; Berthe, Franck. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
Jaffee, Steve; Henson, Spencer; Grace, Delia; Ambrosio, Mateo; Berthe, Franck. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293946_10
Abstract | PDF
Food safety is vital for achieving food and nutritional security in Africa. Unsafe food contains microbiological, chemical, or physical hazards that can make people sick, causing acute or chronic illness that, in extreme cases, can lead to death or permanent disability.2 The presence of foodborne hazards can also reduce the bioavailability of nutrients in food, putting already food-insecure populations at greater risk of malnutrition. Food safety is closely linked to other food-related public health issues. For example, the inappropriate use of antimicrobials in livestock and aquaculture production is contributing to the emergence of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens.
Tracking key CAADP indicators and implementation processes
Makombe, Tsitsi; Tefera, Wondwosen; Ulimwengu, John M.. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
Makombe, Tsitsi; Tefera, Wondwosen; Ulimwengu, John M.. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293946_16
Abstract | PDF
This chapter discusses progress on 25 of the 38 CAADP RF indicators for which cross-country data are available (Table 16.2)—details of the indicators and aggregate statistics are available in the data tables in Annexes 1–3 of this report. Progress is discussed across different geographic and economic groupings on the continent, comparing trends in the RF indicators since the adoption of CAADP in 2003 (that is, from 2003 to 2019) with the pre-CAADP subperiod (1995 to 2003). In keeping with the policy theme of the 2020 ATOR, this chapter also discusses recent policy adjustments due to the COVID-19 pandemic in selected African countries. Starting with the next section, the chapter also discusses the CAADP implementation process itself in terms of country and regional progress in developing evidence-based, Malabo-compliant national agriculture investment plans (NAIPs) and operationalizing CAADP mutual accountability processes to support agriculture sector review and dialogue.
Aligning macroeconomic policies for agricultural transformation in Africa
Mukasa, Adamon N.; Ndung’u, Njuguna; Shimeles, Abebe. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
Mukasa, Adamon N.; Ndung’u, Njuguna; Shimeles, Abebe. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293946_12
Abstract | PDF
This chapter discusses how accounting for macroeconomic perspectives when establishing agricultural policies can help African governments ensure that their agricultural sectors become productive, competitive, and lucrative across agricultural value chains. It presents the two-way linkages between agricultureled growth strategies and macroeconomic policies by focusing on price, fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, and trade policies. It also discusses the main constraints to effective agricultural policy and the options for integrating agricultural perspectives when developing macroeconomic policies.
The political economy of agricultural policy in Africa: Implications for agrifood system transformation
Resnick, Danielle. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
Resnick, Danielle. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293946_14
Abstract | PDF
The intent of this chapter is, first, to review how these components of political economy analysis have affected past agricultural policy decisions and, then, to highlight key points for building a broader empirical research agenda around agrifood system transformation. The first three sections of the chapter focus on how a political economy lens previously has been used to understand trade and price distortions, public investment patterns, and agro-industrial policies. Subsequently, the chapter emphasizes that the growing focus on agrifood system transformation implies an expanded array of needed interventions by the public sector that extend beyond the traditional mandates of agricultural ministries. Moreover, as the food system spans rural areas, small towns, and large cities, all of which are governed by different types of local authorities, public sector support for transformation is no longer under the domain of national governments alone. Consequently, the chapter argues that horizontal and vertical coordination— meaning cooperation across sectors and levels of government—will need to be addressed to manage the transformation process. Some examples of public sector restructuring initiatives are therefore discussed before the chapter concludes.
The past, present and future of agriculture policy in Africa
Badiane, Ousmane; Collins, Julia; Ulimwengu, John M.. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
Badiane, Ousmane; Collins, Julia; Ulimwengu, John M.. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293946_02
Abstract | PDF
This chapter reviews changes in Africa’s economic and agricultural development, and explores their origins in the types of policies pursued by leaders. It examines the strategies and economic trends of the past, in the decades since independence; discusses the innovations of the current Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) era; and describes future policy challenges as we approach the third decade of CAADP implementation. In the first section, we review trends over the past decades in economic growth, agricultural production and productivity, and poverty and hunger. Next, we describe the evolution of agricultural and macroeconomic policies in the decades since Africa’s independence. The third section uses econometric analysis to link policy changes and macroeconomic management indicators to economic growth outcomes. The fourth section describes policy renewal efforts under CAADP, and the next section discusses the growing danger of policy reversal and the importance of mutual accountability processes to mitigate this risk. The sixth section discusses new and emerging policy challenges facing policymakers today, and the final section concludes with some remarks on the way forward.
2020 Annual trends and outlook report: Sustaining Africa's agrifood system transformation: The role of public policies
Resnick, Danielle, ed.; Diao, Xinshen, ed.; Tadesse, Getaw, ed.. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
Resnick, Danielle, ed.; Diao, Xinshen, ed.; Tadesse, Getaw, ed.. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293946
Abstract | PDF
Sustained growth and improved governance in Africa’s agriculture sector are critical to meeting the continent’s development goals, including creating decent jobs for youth, nourishing growing cities with healthy foods, promoting resilience, and catalyzing domestic revenue mobilization. The 2020 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) from the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS) focuses on the policies required to transform African agrifood systems to meet their potential. Chapters provide (1) an in-depth review of the evolution of agricultural sector policies over the last five decades; (2) a systematic analysis of traditional input constraints on agricultural productivity; (3) discussion of policies needed to bolster competitiveness along value chains; and of (4) factors that shape the broader enabling environment needed for agrifood system transformation. The report serves as the official M&E report for the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), tracking progress on over 30 CAADP indicators.
Mutual accountability in African agricultural transformation
Ulimwengu, John M.; Matchaya, Greenwell; Makombe, Tsitsi; Oehmke, James F.. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
Ulimwengu, John M.; Matchaya, Greenwell; Makombe, Tsitsi; Oehmke, James F.. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293946_15
Abstract | PDF
This chapter aims to deepen our understanding of both the conceptual framework of mutual accountability and its best practices in the context of agricultural transformation in Africa. We do so in three ways: documenting the need for and growth of mutual accountability mechanisms over time, discussing how mutual accountability processes contribute to agricultural transformation, and examining the effectiveness of the mutual accountability processes of choice— JSRs and the African agricultural BR. In the next section, we provide a brief review of the origins and theory of mutual accountability as well as its application in African agriculture. Following that, we discuss how mutual accountability is being operationalized through JSRs and the Malabo BR, and the effectiveness of the two processes. The section after empirically assesses the contribution of mutual accountability to agricultural transformation in Africa. The final section provides concluding remarks for driving agricultural transformation through mutual accountability processes.
Introduction: Accelerating policy progress in uncertain times
Resnick, Danielle; Diao, Xinshen; Tadesse, Getaw. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
Resnick, Danielle; Diao, Xinshen; Tadesse, Getaw. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293946_01
Abstract | PDF
African agriculture is at an important crossroads. On the one hand, the role of agriculture in the process of economic transformation is widely recognized (Diao, Hazell, and Thurlow 2010; Diao and McMillan 2018), and there have been important achievements in African agricultural performance and productivity growth in recent years. For instance, between 2005 and 2012, agricultural value-added growth and total factor productivity growth were robust and positive for many countries in the region (IFAD 2016). Although more progress is still needed, long-standing structural reforms have contributed to a more conducive environment for private sector participation in African agriculture, particularly in input value chains (AGRA 2019). At the same time, governments are experimenting with a variety of policy interventions to accelerate agricultural transformation, including the creation of agro-industrial parks, agro-corridors, and special economic zones in more than two dozen countries across the continent (Gálvez Nogales and Webber 2017). These initiatives aim to create economies of scale by coordinating investments in transport, communications, power, and storage to foster linkages between farmers and agribusiness enterprises. There is enormous potential for these and other initiatives to enable agriculture to contribute to larger agrifood system transformation; in fact, evidence suggests that African agribusiness, inclusive of all aspects of the agrifood system except on-farm production, could be a US$1 trillion market by 2030 (Byerlee et al. 2013).
The competitiveness of African agriculture: Revisiting trade policy reform in Africa
Bouët, Antoine; Odjo, Sunday. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
Bouët, Antoine; Odjo, Sunday. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293946_11
Abstract | PDF
The objective of this chapter is to respond to the question: what can trade policy do for the competitiveness of African agriculture? In the pages that follow, we identify what trade reform consists of, review agricultural policies and market access for African economies, and provide a measure of agricultural competitiveness before summarizing our conclusions.
Skills development for value chain actors in African agriculture
Kirui, Oliver. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
Kirui, Oliver. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293946_09
Abstract | PDF
This chapter highlights policies and interventions related to skills development and training for agricultural and food value chain development in Africa. The opening section provides the background and context for the study. The section that follows is dedicated to describing skills gaps and the training needs of various agrifood value chain actors in Africa. The next section describes skills development and training provision for agrifood value chain actors. It provides an overview of continental policies and interventions that characterize skills development for agricultural value chain actors, discusses some examples of significant agricultural technical and vocational education and training (ATVET) initiatives in selected countries in Africa, mulls participation of the private sector in skills development and training, and discusses the prospects of a “dual system” of skills development in African agriculture. The final section concludes the chapter with a summary of main findings and some policy implications.
The enabling environments for the digitalization of African agriculture
Baumüller, Heike; Addom, Benjamin K.. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
Baumüller, Heike; Addom, Benjamin K.. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293946_13
Abstract | PDF
This chapter explains the four pillars of digitalization for agriculture (D4Ag) and takes a closer look at two of those pillars that are required to build a strong enabling environment. D4Ag holds great promise for the transformation of African agriculture, but only if it is carried out holistically—that is, if it is well defined and appropriately deployed as part of broader agricultural and rural development strategies. In other words, digitalization must be understood as an agricultural development tool rather than a technological tool so that its application is problem- rather than technology-driven.
Fertilizer policies and implications for African agriculture
Abate, Gashaw Tadesse; Abay, Kibrom A.; Spielman, David J.. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
Abate, Gashaw Tadesse; Abay, Kibrom A.; Spielman, David J.. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293946_04
Abstract | PDF
In response to the low adoption of improved inputs, African governments have pursued various fertilizer promotion policies and programs. These initiatives range from state-controlled procurement and distribution systems to wholly private sector–led systems. This chapter reviews the pros and cons of some of these polices and their implications for fertilizer use and agricultural productivity. We also review general trends in fertilizer consumption and application rates, marginal returns to fertilizer use, trends in tailored recommendations for nutrients based on soil tests, and emerging concerns regarding unbalanced use of fertilizer in fragile regions of the continent.
Seed policies and regulatory reforms
Spielman, David J.. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
Spielman, David J.. Washington, DC; Kigali 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293946_03
Abstract | PDF
In this chapter, we explore how policies, programs, and regulations related to seed and genetic resources are evolving across Africa, and whether these changes have the potential to improve farmers’ access to improved cultivars and quality seed. We highlight several signs of progress in seed system development and identify challenges that still lie ahead. We also caution against a one-sizefits- all approach to seed system development and encourage a more thoughtful discourse on the myriad issues influencing the public policies that shape Africa’s seed systems, including the sensitive political economy issues that influence policies and practices in the seed systems and market development.
An evolving paradigm of agricultural mechanization development: How much can Africa learn from Asia?
Diao, Xinshen, ed.; Takeshima, Hiroyuki. ed.; Zhang, Xiaobo, ed.. Washington, DC 2020
Diao, Xinshen, ed.; Takeshima, Hiroyuki. ed.; Zhang, Xiaobo, ed.. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293809
Abstract | PDF
Agricultural mechanization in Africa south of the Sahara — especially for small farms and businesses — requires a new paradigm to meet the needs of the continent’s evolving farming systems. Can Asia, with its recent success in adopting mechanization, offer a model for Africa? An Evolving Paradigm of Agricultural Mechanization Development analyzes the experiences of eight Asian and five African countries. The authors explore crucial government roles in boosting and supporting mechanization, from import policies to promotion policies to public good policies. Potential approaches presented to facilitating mechanization in Africa include prioritizing market-led hiring services, eliminating distortions, and developing appropriate technologies for the African context. The role of agricultural mechanization within overall agricultural and rural transformation strategies in Africa is also discussed. The book’s recommendations and insights should be useful to national policymakers and the development community, who can adapt this knowledge to local contexts and use it as a foundation for further research.
An evolving paradigm of agricultural mechanization development: How much can Africa learn from Asia? Synopsis
Diao, Xinshen, ed.; Takeshima, Hiroyuki. ed.; Zhang, Xiaobo, ed.. Washington, DC 2020
Diao, Xinshen, ed.; Takeshima, Hiroyuki. ed.; Zhang, Xiaobo, ed.. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293823
Abstract | PDF
Agricultural mechanization in Africa south of the Sahara — especially for small farms and businesses — requires a new paradigm to meet the needs of the continent’s evolving farming systems. Can Asia, with its recent success in adopting mechanization, offer a model for Africa? An Evolving Paradigm of Agricultural Mechanization Development analyzes the experiences of eight Asian and five African countries. The authors explore crucial government roles in boosting and supporting mechanization, from import policies to promotion policies to public good policies. Potential approaches presented to facilitating mechanization in Africa include prioritizing market-led hiring services, eliminating distortions, and developing appropriate technologies for the African context. The role of agricultural mechanization within overall agricultural and rural transformation strategies in Africa is also discussed. The book’s recommendations and insights should be useful to national policymakers and the development community, who can adapt this knowledge to local contexts and use it as a foundation for further research.
An evolving paradigm for Africa and synthesis of the lessons from Asia
Diao, Xinshen; Silver, Jed; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Zhang, Xiaobo. Washington, DC 2020
Diao, Xinshen; Silver, Jed; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Zhang, Xiaobo. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293809_01
Abstract | PDF
Africa has experienced a paradigm shift in mechanization in the past three decades. The “new paradigm” has also given rise to new challenges and policy issues. By synthesizing the recent experiences in African and Asian countries, this chapter draws lessons from Asia and Africa under this new African paradigm. In doing so, the chapter first lays out the guiding theoretical framework used in 1987 by Pingali, Bigot, and Binswanger (PBB), based on the literature on farming systems evolution and induced technological change. The chapter then describes the “new paradigm,” which builds on PBB but also integrates the additional dimension of market failures associated, on the supply side, with custom hiring services, which have become the most common mode of mechanization among smallholders in developing countries. Applying this expanded framework, the chapter then reviews the Asian experience first. It highlights how mechanization has grown in the continent, having largely avoided supply-side market failures, thanks to several factors: smaller machine sizes;1 increased opportunities for multifunctional uses of machines; more secure land tenures that allow integration with formal credit markets; and the supportive, rather than distortive, nature of government subsidy policies. The chapter then turns to the experiences in Africa south of the Sahara (“Africa” hereafter) and highlights the emerging patterns of spatial variations in demand that are still largely consistent with the PBB framework. However, the chapter also stresses that market failures associated with custom hiring services on the supply side are substantial due to features unique to Africa, including the dominant types of large tractors, in addition to higher financial constraints on tractor ownership resulting from lack of secure land tenures and weak penetration of formal credit markets, as well as other barriers due to limited multifunctionality, lack of migratory services due to insufficient infrastructure and coordination failures, and insufficient technologies complementary to mechanization. Based on country experiences in Asia and Africa, the chapter also highlights key government policies that have not always been successful, including import restrictions (or removal thereof), inefficient technology and skill promotion, and insufficient provision of public goods. Last, given the country experiences and the identified appropriate roles of governments, the chapter concludes by describing the key lessons that are important for Africa’s mechanization pathway forward, including (1) understanding the emerging nature of demand, (2) actively promoting private hiring services, (3) eliminating or reducing distortions, and (4) prioritizing the mechanization technologies appropriate for African contexts.
2020 Annual trends and outlook report: Sustaining Africa's agrifood system transformation: The role of public policies: Synopsis
Resnick, Danielle, ed.; Diao, Xinshen, ed.; Tadesse, Getaw, ed.. Washington, DC 2020
Resnick, Danielle, ed.; Diao, Xinshen, ed.; Tadesse, Getaw, ed.. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/9780896293953
Abstract | PDF
Sustained growth and improved governance in Africa’s agriculture sector are critical to meeting the continent’s development goals, including creating decent jobs for youth, nourishing growing cities with healthy foods, promoting resilience, and catalyzing domestic revenue mobilization. The 2020 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) from the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS) focuses on the policies required to transform African agrifood systems to meet their potential. Chapters provide (1) an in-depth review of the evolution of agricultural sector policies over the last five decades; (2) a systematic analysis of traditional input constraints on agricultural productivity; (3) discussion of policies needed to bolster competitiveness along value chains; and of (4) factors that shape the broader enabling environment needed for agrifood system transformation. The report serves as the official M&E report for the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), tracking progress on over 30 CAADP indicators.
The politics and governance of informal food retail in urban Africa
Resnick, Danielle. Washington, DC 2020
Resnick, Danielle. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134126
Abstract | PDF
Rapid urbanization in Africa south of the Sahara continues to highlight the importance of informal retailers as a source of both food and employment for the urban poor. The most recent Africa Agriculture Status Report emphasizes that, due to demographic and socioeconomic transformation in the region, the center of gravity of Africa’s food system is shifting to urban areas (AGRA, 2020). Informal retailers—including those who vend in open-air wet markets and hawk on pavements and streets—provide a critical link between agricultural producers and consumers. While the COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically highlighted the vulnerability of this constituency (Resnick et al., 2020), informal traders have long been victims of other public health, economic, and climate shocks (Battersby & Watson, 2019). To build the resilience of informal traders and enhance their contributions to urban food security, fundamental governance issues need to be addressed. This brief synthesizes research on informal traders conducted under the “Economywide Factors Affecting Agricultural Growth and Rural Transformation” flagship of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) led by IFPRI. The research spanned Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, and Zambia and involved comparative analysis across capital cities based on media events data, surveys with traders, and interviews with urban bureaucrats. In this way, traders’ experiences could be complemented with policymakers’ insights about bottlenecks and opportunities for reform
Biennial review 2019: Commitment 3: Ending hunger by 2025
Kurtz, Julie E.; Ulimwengu, John M.. Washington, DC 2020
Kurtz, Julie E.; Ulimwengu, John M.. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134148
Abstract | PDF
In line with the Maputo Declaration that established the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) in 2003 and with the 2014 Malabo Declaration, African Union (AU) Member States pledged to conduct a continentwide Biennial Review (BR) to monitor and report on progress in achieving seven thematic commitments outlined in the Declaration. The inaugural 2017 BR Report, the first of its kind in Africa, was launched and endorsed by the AU General Assembly in January 2018. The second BR report was adopted at the AU General Assembly in February 2020.
Biennial review 2019: Commitment 6: Enhancing resilience to climate variability
Kurtz, Julie E.; Ulimwengu, John M.. Washington, DC 2020
Kurtz, Julie E.; Ulimwengu, John M.. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134149
Abstract | PDF
In line with the Maputo Declaration that established the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) in 2003 and with the 2014 Malabo Declaration, African Union (AU) Member States pledged to conduct a continentwide Biennial Review (BR) to monitor and report on progress in achieving seven thematic commitments outlined in the Declaration. The inaugural 2017 BR Report, the first of its kind in Africa, was launched and endorsed by the AU General Assembly in January 2018. The second BR report was adopted at the AU General Assembly in February 2020.
COVID-19 and the Egyptian economy: From reopening to recovery: Alternative pathways and impacts on sectors, jobs, and households
Breisinger, Clemens; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred; Kamaly, Ahmed; Karara, Mouchera. Washington, DC 2020
Breisinger, Clemens; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred; Kamaly, Ahmed; Karara, Mouchera. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134162
Abstract | PDF
Although the global economy is forecasted to shrink by 4.4 percent in 2020 (IMF 2020), the Egyptian economy is proving resilient to the immense human and financial costs caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic. This resilience is mainly explained by the successful implementation of the economic reform program since 2016 that provided more fiscal space to withstand the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis. However, that Egypt’s economy is holding up is also due to the rapid response and proactive measures to limit the impact of the virus that were implemented by the Egyptian Government since March 2020 (MPED 2020). These enabled the country to avoid a full lockdown policy (Figure 1). While Egypt posted negative economic growth rates from April to June 2020 at the height of the crisis, overall economic growth was still positive at 3.6 percent for fiscal year (FY) 2019/20. This estimate is only slightly lower than the initial projection of the impact of the pandemic on Egypt’s economy of an annual economic growth equal to 3.8 percent, as estimated by staff of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development (MPED) (Breisinger et al. 2020). The deviation between the early and final estimate can be mainly explained by the lower than expected growth rates in the manufacturing and health services sectors and the better than expected performance of the trade and transport sectors.
Symposium policy note 2: Digitalization of agricultural services and policy analysis in Egypt
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2020
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134164
Abstract | PDF
This policy note is one in a series of four notes that summarize key findings and recommendations from 32 seminars organized by IFPRI between 2016 and 2020 under the Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity Project funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and from related research done in collaboration with national and international partners in Egypt. The briefs have been prepared on the basis of a joint symposium and are intended to give policymakers and program designers in the areas of social protection, nutrition, agricultural policy, and the digitalization of agriculture a quick overview of research-based recommendations on key policy issues that will better enable Egypt to achieve several of the goals outlined in the Sustainable Development Strategy 2030.
This policy note highlights how digital tools can help improve monitoring, evaluation, and extension services in Egypt’s agriculture sector and how policy analysis can be institutionalized to guide transformation of the food system and rural economies. Four recommendations are discussed:
Building on ongoing efforts, continue to digitize agricultural information systems, build and link agricultural databases, and exploit new sources of data.
Build on ongoing projects that develop mobile telephone applications for farmers and learn from international experiences to revitalize and digitalize agricultural extension in Egypt.
Build the capacity of agricultural policy analysts within the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation and universities, using both conventional and new digital tools to provide high-quality, research-based policy advice.
Promote further digitalization to improve the resilience of food systems in view of shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
This policy note highlights how digital tools can help improve monitoring, evaluation, and extension services in Egypt’s agriculture sector and how policy analysis can be institutionalized to guide transformation of the food system and rural economies. Four recommendations are discussed:
Building on ongoing efforts, continue to digitize agricultural information systems, build and link agricultural databases, and exploit new sources of data.
Build on ongoing projects that develop mobile telephone applications for farmers and learn from international experiences to revitalize and digitalize agricultural extension in Egypt.
Build the capacity of agricultural policy analysts within the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation and universities, using both conventional and new digital tools to provide high-quality, research-based policy advice.
Promote further digitalization to improve the resilience of food systems in view of shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
Symposium policy note 1: Enabling farmers to lead food system transformation and resilience in Egypt
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2020
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134165
Abstract | PDF
Agricultural and food policies will play an important role in making Egypt’s food system fit for future challenges, including resilience to shocks, such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This brief highlights the importance of enabling farmers so that they can contribute significantly to a broader transformation and to resilience of Egypt’s food system and rural economy. Five areas of action are highlighted:
Invest in a renewed system of agricultural extension services, with an emphasis on new technologies and production systems and on nontraditional crops.
Ease rigidities for farmers and increase the market orientation of the agriculture sector, including markets for fertilizer and staple crops.
Revisit the current irrigation management system to allow for the adoption of new irrigation technologies and increased efficiency of water usage.
Support the development of agro-processing value chains where there are missing markets or market frictions in order to achieve a sustainable and nutrition-sensitive food system.
Coordinate agricultural policy with policies of other government ministries to support rural transformation and employment opportunities off the farm.
Invest in a renewed system of agricultural extension services, with an emphasis on new technologies and production systems and on nontraditional crops.
Ease rigidities for farmers and increase the market orientation of the agriculture sector, including markets for fertilizer and staple crops.
Revisit the current irrigation management system to allow for the adoption of new irrigation technologies and increased efficiency of water usage.
Support the development of agro-processing value chains where there are missing markets or market frictions in order to achieve a sustainable and nutrition-sensitive food system.
Coordinate agricultural policy with policies of other government ministries to support rural transformation and employment opportunities off the farm.
Symposium policy note 3: Cash transfers as an effective tool for social protection and shock response in Egypt
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2020
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134166
Abstract | PDF
This policy note is one in a series of four notes that summarizes key findings and recommendations from 32 seminars that IFPRI organized between 2016 and 2020 under the Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity Project funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and from related research done in collaboration with national and international partners in Egypt. The briefs have been prepared on the basis of a joint symposium and are intended to give policy makers and program designers in the areas of social protection, nutrition, agricultural policy, and the digitalization of agriculture a quick overview of research-based recommendations on key policy issues that will better enable Egypt achieve several of the goals outlined in the Sustainable Development Strategy 2030.
Social protection programs are essential for supporting Egyptians who are economically the most vulnerable. This brief makes the argument for moving more decisively toward a cash-based social protection system in Egypt. Four areas of action are highlighted:
Continue the well-functioning Takaful and Karama program and consider increasing its budget to adjust transfers to inflation.
Consider improving the targeting for Tamween food subsidies and integrating Takaful and Karama with Tamween.
Continue the use of transparent and independent impact evaluations to assess social protection programs in order to maximize their benefits for Egypt and its people.
Maintain the ability to respond flexibly to future shocks as an important feature of solidifying the national social protection system.
Social protection programs are essential for supporting Egyptians who are economically the most vulnerable. This brief makes the argument for moving more decisively toward a cash-based social protection system in Egypt. Four areas of action are highlighted:
Continue the well-functioning Takaful and Karama program and consider increasing its budget to adjust transfers to inflation.
Consider improving the targeting for Tamween food subsidies and integrating Takaful and Karama with Tamween.
Continue the use of transparent and independent impact evaluations to assess social protection programs in order to maximize their benefits for Egypt and its people.
Maintain the ability to respond flexibly to future shocks as an important feature of solidifying the national social protection system.
Symposium policy note 4: Moving nutrition further up the development priority list in Egypt
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2020
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134167
Abstract | PDF
This policy note is one in a series of four notes that summarize key findings and recommendations from 32 seminars organized by IFPRI between 2016 and 2020 under the Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity Project funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and from related research done in collaboration with national and international partners in Egypt. The briefs have been prepared on the basis of a joint symposium and are intended to give policymakers and program designers in the areas of social protection, nutrition, agricultural policy, and the digitalization of agriculture a quick overview of research-based recommendations on key policy issues that will better enable Egypt to achieve several of the goals outlined in the Sustainable Development Strategy 2030.
Addressing all forms of malnutrition – both undernutrition and overnutrition – remains a human and economic development challenge that Egypt must overcome. This brief highlights three areas of action to significantly improve the nutritional status of all Egyptians:
Make domestic food policies more nutrition-sensitive and incentivize food producers and marketers to shift to the production, processing, and marketing of healthier foods.
Expand ongoing awareness and educational campaigns, such as the 100 Million Healthy Lives initiative, to promote improved nutrition and to disseminate nutrition knowledge. The COVID-19 pandemic is an additional reminder and rationale for investing in healthy diets and sustainable food systems.
Promote research to make nutrition policy more effective and efficient, including by increasing collection of nutrition-related data and better sharing of already collected data among ministries, research institutes, and other stakeholders.
Addressing all forms of malnutrition – both undernutrition and overnutrition – remains a human and economic development challenge that Egypt must overcome. This brief highlights three areas of action to significantly improve the nutritional status of all Egyptians:
Make domestic food policies more nutrition-sensitive and incentivize food producers and marketers to shift to the production, processing, and marketing of healthier foods.
Expand ongoing awareness and educational campaigns, such as the 100 Million Healthy Lives initiative, to promote improved nutrition and to disseminate nutrition knowledge. The COVID-19 pandemic is an additional reminder and rationale for investing in healthy diets and sustainable food systems.
Promote research to make nutrition policy more effective and efficient, including by increasing collection of nutrition-related data and better sharing of already collected data among ministries, research institutes, and other stakeholders.
Food policies and their implications on overweight and obesity trends in selected countries in the Near East and North Africa region
Abay, Kibrom A.; Ibrahim, Hosam; Breisinger, Clemens; Bayasgalanbat, Nomindelger. 2020
Abay, Kibrom A.; Ibrahim, Hosam; Breisinger, Clemens; Bayasgalanbat, Nomindelger. 2020
DOI : 10.4060/cb2338en
Abstract | PDF
Regional and global trends in body weight show that the Near East and North Africa (NENA) region countries, especially the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member countries, have the highest average body mass index and highest rates of overweight and obesity in the world. There exist several explanations that expound the high rates of overweight and obesity in most NENA countries, including the nutrition transition, urbanization, changes in lifestyle, and consequent reduction of physical activities. This study examines the implication of food policies, mainly trade and government food subsidies, on evolving nutritional transitions and associated body weight outcomes. We examine the evolution of trade (food) policies, food systems, and body weight outcomes across selected countries in the NENA region – Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq. In particular, we investigate the implications of important trade (food) policies in shaping diets and food systems as well as their implications on public health outcomes, mainly the rising levels of overweight and obesity in the NENA region. We provide a simple conceptual framework through which trade policies (tariff rates) and domestic government food policies (subsidies) may affect food systems and nutritional outcomes. An important and innovative feature of this study is that it compiles several macro- and micro-level datasets that allow both macro and micro-level analyses of the evolution of trade (food) policies and associated obesity trends. This approach helps to at least partly overcome the data scarcity that complicates rigorous policy research in the NENA region.
COVID-19 impact on informal trade: Disruptions to livelihoods and food security in Africa
Bouët, Antoine; Kurtz, Julie E.; Traoré, Fousseini. Washington, DC 2020
Bouët, Antoine; Kurtz, Julie E.; Traoré, Fousseini. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134241
Abstract | PDF
International trade of food and agricultural products plays a major role in ensuring food security and livelihoods across the African continent. Yet formal intracontinental trade data give only a glimpse of trade’s importance for African consumers and producers because—depending on the country and border—up to 99 percent of agricultural trade crosses borders informally. In West Africa, for example, an estimated 30 percent of staple foods evade formal customs, and the proportion can be much greater for highly perishable fruits and vegetables. Consequently, formal trade data paint only a limited picture of COVID-19’s disruptive effect on trade within the African continent—and of related nutrition and livelihood consequences. To better understand the current and future impacts on African food producers and consumers, we must examine both the magnitude and unique mechanisms of informal cross-border trade (ICBT).
MAP Egypt
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2020
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2020
Abstract | Link
MAP Egypt is a monitoring tool that keeps track of agricultural development projects and the subnational socioeconomic context in Egypt. The ultimate goal of the tool is to improve agricultural project planning, coordination and effectiveness. Specifically, MAP Egypt helps the Government, development partners, researchers and other interested parties to gain a quick overview of the state of agriculture in Egypt at the aggregate and the project level. The tool has been developed for and with the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation (MoALR) by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as part of the “Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity” (EIBC) project, funded by United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
In order to effectively allocate funds, build synergies and evaluate future proposals, users can visualize and monitor the status and progress of agricultural projects categorized by sector, location, donor or common objectives, as well as track projects’ key performance indicators. To contextualize projects and evaluate which governorates require further assistance, users can also quickly map, zoom and chart a wide range of socioeconomic indicators, at subnational levels, on food and nutrition security, poverty and development across Egypt, with a focus on Egypt’s Sustainable Development Strategy 2030 (SDS 2030 Pillars) the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and Other Socioeconomic Indicators.
In order to effectively allocate funds, build synergies and evaluate future proposals, users can visualize and monitor the status and progress of agricultural projects categorized by sector, location, donor or common objectives, as well as track projects’ key performance indicators. To contextualize projects and evaluate which governorates require further assistance, users can also quickly map, zoom and chart a wide range of socioeconomic indicators, at subnational levels, on food and nutrition security, poverty and development across Egypt, with a focus on Egypt’s Sustainable Development Strategy 2030 (SDS 2030 Pillars) the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and Other Socioeconomic Indicators.
Ex post adjustment for measurement error in stunting calculations: An illustration from Egypt
Figueroa, Jose Luis; Kurdi, Sikandra. 2020
Figueroa, Jose Luis; Kurdi, Sikandra. 2020
DOI : 10.1017/S1368980019003100
Is consanguinity an impediment to child development?
Mete, Cem; Bossavie, Laurent; Giles, John; Alderman, Harold. 2020
Mete, Cem; Bossavie, Laurent; Giles, John; Alderman, Harold. 2020
DOI : 10.1080/00324728.2019.1699942
Agricultural growth and sex-disaggregated employment in Africa: Future perspectives under different investment scenarios
Frija, Aymen; Chebil, Ali; Mottaleb, Khondoker Abdul; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Dhehibi, Boubaker. 2020
Frija, Aymen; Chebil, Ali; Mottaleb, Khondoker Abdul; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Dhehibi, Boubaker. 2020
DOI : 10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100353
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Literature is scanty on how public agricultural investments can help reducing the impact of future challenges such as climate change and population pressure on national economies. The objective of this study is to assess the medium and long-term effects of alternative agricultural research and development investment scenarios on male and female employment in 14 African countries. We first estimate the effects of agricultural investment scenarios on the overall GDP growth of a given country using partial and general equilibrium models. Secondly, using employment elasticities to GDP growth, we estimate the impact of GDP growth on overall employment in the economy. Results show that, increased investments in agriculture could generate higher overall employment and reduce gender disparities in labor participation. In 8 out of 14 sampled countries, female employment increased more than male employment in response to agricultural investments. Investment in infrastructure had higher impact on female employment growth compared to productivity scenarios.
Does rural Africa have a “youth problem”?
Thurlow, James; Mueller, Valerie. 2020
Thurlow, James; Mueller, Valerie. 2020
Abstract | Link (37 B)
More than 20 million young people, aged 15-24 years, join the workforce in Africa south of the Sahara every year. These young job seekers will need to find work in today’s more competitive global economy, and not everyone thinks they will be successful.
Africa’s litigated democracy
Baulch, Bob; Resnick, Danielle. 2020
Baulch, Bob; Resnick, Danielle. 2020
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The fact that African opposition parties increasingly turn to the courts when they lose elections indicates that perceptions of judicial independence are improving. But frequent recourse to the courts can undermine trust in the electoral process and indicates that basic democratic mechanisms are not functioning properly.
Nutritional training in a humanitarian context: Evidence from a cluster randomized trial
Kurdi, Sikandra; Figueroa, Jose Luis; Ibrahim, Hosam. 2020
Kurdi, Sikandra; Figueroa, Jose Luis; Ibrahim, Hosam. 2020
DOI : 10.1111/mcn.12973
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Behavioural change communication interventions have been shown to be effective at improving infant and young child nutrition knowledge and practices. However, evidence in humanitarian response contexts is scarce. Using data on secondary outcomes of breastfeeding, water treatment, and knowledge from a cluster randomized control trial of the Yemen Cash for Nutrition programme's impact on child nutritional status, this paper shows that the programme significantly improved knowledge and practices for poor women with young children in the pilot districts. The intervention consisted of cash transfers and monthly group nutrition education sessions led by locally recruited community health volunteers. Data are based on self‐reports by participants. Estimating impacts among all 1,945 women in 190 clusters randomly assigned to treatment versus control and controlling for baseline levels and community characteristic and adjusting for noncompliance with randomization, the programme increased the probability of breastfeeding initiation within the first hour after delivery by 15.6% points (p < .05; control = 74.4% and treatment = 83.6%), the probability of exclusive breastfeeding during the first 6 months by 14.4% points (control = 13.5% and treatment = 25.3%), the probability of households treating water consumed by adults by 16.7% points (p < .01; control = 13.9% and treatment = 23.4%), and treating water consumed by children under two by 10.3% points (p < .10; control = 31.2% and treatment = 37.9%). Impacts on knowledge and breastfeeding are similar for both literate and illiterate women, and water treatment impacts are significantly larger for literate women. This study was registered at 3ie (RIDIE‐STUDY‐ID‐5b4eff881b29a) and funded by the Nordic Trust Fund and Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research programme on Policies, Institutions, and Markets.
Multiple factors influence the consistency of cropland datasets in Africa
Wei, Yanbing; Lu, Miao; Wu, Wenbin; Ru, Yating. 2020
Wei, Yanbing; Lu, Miao; Wu, Wenbin; Ru, Yating. 2020
DOI : 10.1016/j.jag.2020.102087
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Accurate geo-information of cropland is critical for food security strategy development and grain production management, especially in Africa continent where most countries are food-insecure. Over the past decades, a series of African cropland maps have been derived from remotely-sensed data, existing comparison studies have shown that inconsistencies with statistics and discrepancies among these products are considerable. Yet, there is a knowledge gap about the factors that influence their consistency. The aim of this study is thus to estimate the consistency of five widely-used cropland datasets (MODIS Collection 5, GlobCover 2009, GlobeLand30, CCI-LC 2010, and Unified Cropland Layer) in Africa, and to explore the effects of several limiting factors (landscape fragmentation, climate and agricultural management) on spatial consistency. The results show that total cropland area for Africa derived from GlobeLand30 has the best fitness with FAO statistics, followed by MODIS Collection 5. GlobCover 2009, CCI-LC 2010, and Unified Cropland Layer have poor performances as indicated by larger deviations from statistics. In terms of spatial consistency, disagreement is about 37.9 % at continental scale, and the disparate proportion even exceeds 50 % in approximately 1/3 of the countries at national scale. We further found that there is a strong and significant correlation between spatial agreement and cropland fragmentation, suggesting that regions with higher landscape fragmentation generally have larger disparities. It is also noticed that places with better consistency are mainly distributed in regions with favorable natural environments and sufficient agricultural management such as well-developed irrigated technology. Proportions of complete agreement are thus located in favorable climate zones including Hot-summer Mediterranean climate (Csa), Subtropical highland climate (Cwb), and Temperate Mediterranean climate (Csb). The level of complete agreement keeps rising as the proportion of irrigated cropland increases. Spatial agreement among these datasets has the most significant relationship with cropland fragmentation, and a relatively small association with irrigation area, followed by climate conditions. These results can provide some insights into understanding how different factors influence the consistency of cropland datasets, and making an appropriate selection when using these datasets in different regions. We suggest that future cropland mapping activities should put more effort in those regions with significant disagreement in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Towards gender equality in social protection: Evidence gaps and priority research questions
Peterman, Amber; Kumar, Neha; Pereira, Audrey; Gilligan, Daniel. 2020
Peterman, Amber; Kumar, Neha; Pereira, Audrey; Gilligan, Daniel. 2020
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Despite high-level commitments made by global stakeholders to advancing gender equity and equality through social protection, and the important role of this shared objective, there remains significant evidence gaps in understanding what this means in practice. We have proposed five priority evidence gaps to advance this understanding, related to: 1) programme design, 2) regional knowledge, 3) measurement and analysis, 4) cost effectiveness, and 5) future-looking issues. These priorities do not operate in isolation; each interacts with and should be considered alongside the others. We acknowledge that they are not exhaustive and are influenced by the type of research and viewpoints we bring to the intersection of social protection and gender. For example, understanding long-term, lifecycle, and intergenerational effects are certainly of importance, despite not being included as a top priority here. In many ways, setting out a research agenda for leveraging social protection for gender equality is similar to one which simply aims to make systems and programmes work better overall—no programme can fulfill objectives of poverty, inequality, and vulnerability while leaving half the population behind. We look forward to helping close these gaps.
Africa’s growing risk of diseases that spread from animals to people
Bett, Bernard; Randolph, Delia; McDermott, John. 2020
Bett, Bernard; Randolph, Delia; McDermott, John. 2020
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is a rude awakening to many who believed the era of infectious disease was over. In this post, Bernard Bett, Delia Randolph and John McDermott argue that not only are pandemics not over, they may be increasing in frequency; and while most originated in Asia in the past, Africa may be poised to become an important source of so-called “zoonotic pathogens”—with its population growth, rapid urbanisation, and rising global integration offering promising vectors for outbreaks.
Long-term optimization of regional power sector development: Potential for cooperation in the Eastern Nile region?
Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam; Ringler, Claudia. 2020
Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam; Ringler, Claudia. 2020
DOI : 10.1016/j.energy.2020.117703
Abstract | Link (37 B)
This paper develops a regional TIMES modelling framework for the electricity sector of the Eastern Nile Basin region, including Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, to assess the potential of energy trading for cross-border collaboration in this rapidly growing sector. Four alternative scenarios are developed for the 2014–2050 period to assess national and regional benefits of alternative energy development strategies. The study finds that electricity trading scenarios out-perform a reference scenario that assumes no energy trading, lowering systems cost by 4.5–7.2%. Total systems costs are lower, even when transmission costs for trade are considered. Costs are also lower with increased generation from renewables compared to investments without regional trade. Investing in renewables has important co-benefits, such as improved energy security and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Supporting energy trade not only reduces systems costs, but can also strengthen cooperation in the region, as reflected in the energy trading efforts of the East African Power Pool and the transboundary collaboration efforts of the Nile Basin Initiative.
Coronavirus: Lockdowns across Africa creating major economic loss
Thurlow, James. 2020
Thurlow, James. 2020
Abstract | Link (37 B)
It is too soon to assess the full economic impacts that COVID-19 lockdowns will have on developing countries. But early research indicates that many African economies are significantly impacted and that poorer households are struggling.
Inequality of opportunity in earnings and assets in Egypt
Galal, Rami; El-Enbaby, Hoda. 2020
Galal, Rami; El-Enbaby, Hoda. 2020
DOI : 10.1080/00036846.2020.1731409
Climate change and its implications for central banks in emerging and developing economies
Arndt, Channing; Loewald, Christopher; Makrelov, Konstantin. Pretoria, South Africa 2020
Arndt, Channing; Loewald, Christopher; Makrelov, Konstantin. Pretoria, South Africa 2020
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Climate change mitigation and adaptation will prove to be sources of significant structural change. The impacts will be far-reaching and often irreversible, with particularly large effects on emerging and developing economies. This paper assesses the implications of these changes for central banks in developing countries. They can best support adaptation and mitigation efforts by maintaining macroeconomic stability, lowering the cost of borrowing to support green investment, facilitating the development of green assets, and improving the sharing of information in the financial system, especially with respect to risks. Yet, emerging market central banks currently have limited capacity to assess climate risks and their effects on financial stability, growth, and inflation. As such, the paper also provides options for central banks to develop analytical frameworks useful for that purpose.
Evaluation of linear growth at higher altitudes
Baye, Kaleab; Hirvonen, Kalle. 2020
Baye, Kaleab; Hirvonen, Kalle. 2020
DOI : 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2020.2386
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Irrespective of their genetic makeup, children living in an ideal home environment that supports healthy growth have similar growth potential. However, whether this potential is true for children residing at higher altitudes remains unknown.
Embracing innovation to meet food systems challenges
Arndt, Channing; Chambers, Judith A.; Zambrano, Patricia; Alahmdi, Mohammed Issa; Alatawi, Aishah; Benfica, Rui; Edward, Martin G.; Gatehouse, Angharad M. R.; Moronta-Barrios, Felix; Ahmed, Akhter. Saudi Arabia 2020
Arndt, Channing; Chambers, Judith A.; Zambrano, Patricia; Alahmdi, Mohammed Issa; Alatawi, Aishah; Benfica, Rui; Edward, Martin G.; Gatehouse, Angharad M. R.; Moronta-Barrios, Felix; Ahmed, Akhter. Saudi Arabia 2020
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Agrifood systems are powerful levers for improving livelihoods. They must also address an array of systemic challenges, including satisfying growing global food demand, improving diets, limiting greenhouse gas emissions, adapting to a warming climate, and sustaining the environment. Technology and innovation play a central role in meeting these challenges. This brief offers two policy recommendations to support the contribution of innovation. First, G20 countries should increase political and financial support to agrifood systems research in developing countries. Second, the G20 should promote and support science-based, responsible, and risk-assessed regulatory reforms that enable the safe deployment of promising bio-innovations.
Climate-induced migration and unemployment in middle-income Africa
Mueller, Valerie; Gray, Clark; Hopping, Douglas. 2020
Mueller, Valerie; Gray, Clark; Hopping, Douglas. 2020
DOI : 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102183
Social protection amidst social upheaval: Examining the impact of a multi-faceted program for ultra-poor households in Yemen
Brune, Lasse; Karlan, Dean; Kurdi, Sikandra; Udry, Christopher R.. Cambridge, MA 2020
Brune, Lasse; Karlan, Dean; Kurdi, Sikandra; Udry, Christopher R.. Cambridge, MA 2020
DOI : 10.3386/w27583
Jemimah Njuki looks to an inclusive future for small-holder farming in Africa
Njuki, Jemimah. 2020
Njuki, Jemimah. 2020
Abstract | Link (37 B)
In the third of a four-part blog series following the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Foresight4Food, IFAD and APRA eDialogue session on the future of small-scale farming, Jemimah Njuki, the International Food Policy Research Institute’s Director for Africa, reflects on the discussion and emphasises the importance of this sector’s social dimensions.
How mobile phone towers could help monitor rainfall in developing countries
David, Noam; Gao, H. Oliver; Liu, Yanyan. 2020
David, Noam; Gao, H. Oliver; Liu, Yanyan. 2020
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Many developing economies suffer from a lack of reliable rainfall measurements due to a lack of funds and a shortage of equipment – such as gauges and radars. Even if countries are equipped with these monitoring instruments, they all have limitations.
Gender and promoting quality seeds in Africa: A literature review
Brearley, Emily; Kramer, Berber. 2020
Brearley, Emily; Kramer, Berber. 2020
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Advances in plant breeding and biotechnology have the potential to transform agriculture in Africa, but sustainable and inclusive distribution and marketing of quality seeds remains a significant challenge. We review the peer-reviewed literature on alternative approaches for promoting improved varieties and quality seeds in Africa, focusing on how adoption and use can be enhanced for women and men alike. The analysis explores a range of innovations that have been developed in recent years with the aim to boost the availability and quality, access to and, control and use of seeds. The literature review highlights pockets of innovative models on both the public and private sector side. However, many of these approaches are not tested with a gender lens. In fact, many innovations risk increasing productivity for a small segment of the farming population, thereby potentially further widening the large gender gaps in empowerment in agriculture. Given the current understanding of intrahousehold gender dynamics and contextual crop-specific constraints across the value chain, there is an urgent need to start testing, measuring and documenting both the sustainability and inclusiveness of alternative innovations to promote the use of high-quality seeds.
SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis
Post, Lori; Marogi, Emily; Moss, Charles B.; Murphy, Robert Leo; Ison, Michael G.; Resnick, Danielle. Toronto, Canada 2020
Post, Lori; Marogi, Emily; Moss, Charles B.; Murphy, Robert Leo; Ison, Michael G.; Resnick, Danielle. Toronto, Canada 2020
DOI : 10.2196/25830
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Background: The COVID-19 global pandemic has disrupted the lives of millions and forced countries to devise public health policies to reduce the pace of transmission. In the Middle East and North Africa, falling oil prices, disparities in wealth and public health infrastructure, and large refugee populations have significantly increased the COVID-19 disease burden. In light of these exacerbating factors, public health surveillance is particularly necessary to help leaders understand and implement effective disease control policies to reduce Sars-CoV-2 persistence and transmission.
Objective: The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics, in combination with traditional surveillance, for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic speed, acceleration, jerk and persistence, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and to better inform those who are managing the pandemic. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed.
Methods: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 30 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the Middle East and North Africa as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel data model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R
Results: The regression Wald statistic is significant (χ^2 (5)=859.5, P<.001). The Sargan test is not significant, failing to reject the validity of over identifying restrictions (χ^2 (294)= 16 P=.99). Countries with the highest cumulative caseload of the novel coronavirus include Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel with 530,380, 426,634, 342,202, and 303,109 cases respectively. Many of the smaller countries in MENA have higher infection rates than those countries with the highest caseloads. Oman has 33.3 new infections per 100,000 population while Bahrain has 12.1, Libya has 14, and Lebanon has 14.6. In order of most to least number of cumulative deaths since January 2020, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have 30,375, 10,254, 6,120, and 5,185 respectively. Israel, Bahrain, Lebanon, and Oman had the highest rates of COVID-19 persistence which are the number of new infections statistically related to new infections 7 days ago. Bahrain had positive speed, acceleration and jerk signaling the potential for explosive growth. Conclusions: Static and dynamic public health surveillance metrics provide a more complete picture of pandemic progression across countries in MENA. Static measures capture data at a given point in time such as infection rates and death rates. By including speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, public health officials may design policy with an eye to the future. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel all demonstrated the highest rate of infections, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence rates prompting public health leaders to increase prevention efforts.
Objective: The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics, in combination with traditional surveillance, for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic speed, acceleration, jerk and persistence, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and to better inform those who are managing the pandemic. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed.
Methods: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 30 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the Middle East and North Africa as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel data model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R
Results: The regression Wald statistic is significant (χ^2 (5)=859.5, P<.001). The Sargan test is not significant, failing to reject the validity of over identifying restrictions (χ^2 (294)= 16 P=.99). Countries with the highest cumulative caseload of the novel coronavirus include Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel with 530,380, 426,634, 342,202, and 303,109 cases respectively. Many of the smaller countries in MENA have higher infection rates than those countries with the highest caseloads. Oman has 33.3 new infections per 100,000 population while Bahrain has 12.1, Libya has 14, and Lebanon has 14.6. In order of most to least number of cumulative deaths since January 2020, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have 30,375, 10,254, 6,120, and 5,185 respectively. Israel, Bahrain, Lebanon, and Oman had the highest rates of COVID-19 persistence which are the number of new infections statistically related to new infections 7 days ago. Bahrain had positive speed, acceleration and jerk signaling the potential for explosive growth. Conclusions: Static and dynamic public health surveillance metrics provide a more complete picture of pandemic progression across countries in MENA. Static measures capture data at a given point in time such as infection rates and death rates. By including speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, public health officials may design policy with an eye to the future. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel all demonstrated the highest rate of infections, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence rates prompting public health leaders to increase prevention efforts.
Vegetation changes attributable to refugees in Africa coincide with agricultural deforestation
Maystadt, Jean-François; Mueller, Valerie; Van Den Hoek, Jamon; van Weezel, Stijn. 2020
Maystadt, Jean-François; Mueller, Valerie; Van Den Hoek, Jamon; van Weezel, Stijn. 2020
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7c
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The recent adoption of the Global Compact on Refugees formally recognizes not only the importance of supporting the nearly 26 million people who have sought asylum from conflict and persecution but also of easing the pressures on receiving areas and host countries. However, few countries may enforce the Compact out of concern over the economic or environmental repercussions of hosting refugees. We examine whether narratives of refugee-driven landscape change are empirically generalizable to continental Africa, which fosters 34% of all refugees. Estimates of the causal effects of the number of refugees—located in 493 camps distributed across 49 African countries—on vegetation from 2000 to 2016 are provided. Using a quasi-experimental design, we find refugees bear a small increase in vegetation condition while contributing to increased deforestation. Such a combination is mainly explained not by land clearance and massive biomass extraction but by agricultural expansion in refugee-hosting areas. A one percent increase in the number of refugees amplifies the transition from dominant forested areas to cropland by 1.4 percentage points. These findings suggest that changes in vegetation condition may ensue with the elevation of population-based constraints on food security.
Technical paper on socioeconomics and food security dimensions of climate change
Ringler, Claudia; Rosegrant, Mark W.. Nairobi, Kenya 2020
Ringler, Claudia; Rosegrant, Mark W.. Nairobi, Kenya 2020
Abstract | Link (37 B)
This paper examines the economic and food security implications of climate change in Africa with a focus on population and income growth, agricultural livelihoods and food security, and the role of gender and youth. Food security impacts include climate change risks to food production and agricultural value chains in Africa. The paper then identifies key entry points to address climate change and socioeconomic challenges, including the role of investment in agricultural research, irrigation investment, climate-smart agriculture, the role of ICT, trade as a buffer to climate change, crop insurance, as well as safety nets for the poorest and most vulnerable.
Long-term optimization of Egypt’s power sector: Policy implications
Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam; Ringler, Claudia; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; ElDidi, Hagar; Breisinger, Clemens; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2019
Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam; Ringler, Claudia; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; ElDidi, Hagar; Breisinger, Clemens; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2019
DOI : 10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.158
Abstract | Link (37 B)
This paper presents an evaluation of energy supply strategies for Egypt’s power sector and identifiesprospects to meet rising electricity demand while addressing energy security and low-carbon devel-opment issues. We apply the TIMES energy system model to examine Egypt’s energy policy goals asreflected in Egypt’s Vision 2030, and specifically: (a) targeted power generation based on renewableenergy under two different scenarios; (b) targeted carbon dioxide (CO2) emission s’ mitigation towardlow-carbon society development; and (c) constraints on natural gas production for power generation.The quantitative results from the model suggest a need for diversification from predominantly naturalgas to a mix of renewable and conventional energy sources in order to improve energy security, reducedependency on fossil fuels, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, with the level of diversificationchanging with different policy options. Although total energy system cost is projected to increase theeffects on fossil-fuel dependency, diversity of energy supply-mix, marginal electricity generation price,and GHG mitigation indicate that it may be wise to target promotion of renewable energy for powergeneration and develop a low-carbon society
Energy subsidy reform for growth and equity in Egypt: The approach matters
Breisinger, Clemens; Mukashov, Askar; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2019
Breisinger, Clemens; Mukashov, Askar; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2019
DOI : 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.02.059
Abstract | Link
Phasing out energy subsidies is high on the agenda of policymakers in several Middle Eastern and North African countries. The impact of such reform can vary widely depending on the country and policy. This paper contributes to the existing literature by examining the phasing out of energy subsidies in Egypt under alternative economic scenarios. In particular, we consider Egypt's short- and long-term economic adjustment under different assumptions on labor market flexibility, spending options of subsidy savings, and alternative social protection measures. Results from economy-wide model simulations suggest that energy subsidy cuts may hamper economic growth in the short term, but depending on the policy measure, will improve growth perspectives and household welfare in the longer term. Yet, findings also point to likely adverse impacts of the reform on household consumption in the short and longer run. To counteract such negative impacts, targeted social protection measures should be continued and scaled up in parallel with the phasing out of energy subsidies.
Private sector’s role in agricultural transformation in Africa: Overview
Reardon, Thomas; Awokuse, Titus; Haggblade, Steven; Minten, Bart; Vos, Rob. Nairobi, Kenya 2019
Reardon, Thomas; Awokuse, Titus; Haggblade, Steven; Minten, Bart; Vos, Rob. Nairobi, Kenya 2019
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Small-scale farms that sell to urban markets in Africa are about 10 times more likely to use fertilizer, manure, and improved seeds, and to invest in soil conservation and “sustainable intensification” than farmers who do not sell to markets (Reardon, Crawford, Kelly, & Diagana, 1995). Farms that undertake those investments tend to have higher yields. Thus, those farms have more output and higher farm income, which in turn provides multiplier effects, generating broader-based rural and urban income, and employment growth (Haggblade, Hazell, & Dorosh, 2007; Reardon, 1997). Adjognon, Liverpool-Tasie, and Reardon (2017) further show that income from rural non-farm employment is, by far, the most important funding source for input purchases in Africa. Dynamic and inclusive agricultural transformation depends on whether smallscale farms are “sandwiched” between (small and medium enterprise (SME)-driven output and input value chains. With the motivation to address those gaps, this Africa Agriculture Status Report (AASR) focuses on the role of the private sector in the output and input value chains in sub-Saharan
Africa. We examine its structure, conduct, and performance, particularly in regard to its interface with small farms.
Africa. We examine its structure, conduct, and performance, particularly in regard to its interface with small farms.
Private sector and clusters development for agricultural transformation in Africa
Ulimwengu, John M.; Jenane, Chakib. Nairobi, Kenya 2019
Ulimwengu, John M.; Jenane, Chakib. Nairobi, Kenya 2019
Abstract | Link (37 B)
This chapter looks at how agri-based clusters can be nurtured for further growth in the context of Africa and how they can drive private sector investment and innovation for agricultural transformation. It briefly describes the different types of agri-clusters, analyzes experience from developing these models around the world and lessons learned (successes and failures) from these. The chapter also proposes key factors to be
considered by policy makers for clusters development to help Africa unleash the full potential of its agriculture sector.
considered by policy makers for clusters development to help Africa unleash the full potential of its agriculture sector.
First foods: Diet quality among infants aged 6–23 months in 42 countries
Choudhury, Samira; Headey, Derek D.; Masters, William A.. 2019
Choudhury, Samira; Headey, Derek D.; Masters, William A.. 2019
DOI : 10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101762
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Diet quality is closely linked to child growth and development, especially among infants aged 6–23 months who need to complement breastmilk with the gradual introduction of nutrient-rich solid foods. This paper links Demographic and Health Survey data on infant feeding to household and environmental factors for 76,641 children in 42 low- and middle-income countries surveyed in 2006–2013, providing novel stylized facts about diets in early childhood. Multivariate regressions examine the associations of household socioeconomic characteristics and community level indicators of climate and infrastructure with dietary diversity scores (DDS). Results show strong support for an infant-feeding version of Bennett's Law, as wealthier households introduce more diverse foods at earlier ages, with additional positive effects of parental education, local infrastructure and more temperate agro-climatic conditions. Associations with consumption of specific nutrient-dense foods are less consistent. Our findings imply that while income growth is indeed an important driver of diversification, there are strong grounds to also invest heavily in women’s education and food environments to improve diet quality, while addressing the impacts of climate change on livelihoods and food systems. These results reveal systematic patterns in how first foods vary across developing countries, pointing to new opportunities for research towards nutrition-smart policies to improve children’s diets.
Agricultural bias in focus
Balino, Sofia; Laborde Debucquet, David; Murphy, Sophia; Parent, Marie; Smaller, Carin; Traore, Fousseini. Winnipeg, Canada 2019
Balino, Sofia; Laborde Debucquet, David; Murphy, Sophia; Parent, Marie; Smaller, Carin; Traore, Fousseini. Winnipeg, Canada 2019
Abstract | Link (37 B)
The report Transforming Agriculture in Africa and Asia: What Are the Policy Priorities? showed that successful agricultural transformation has depended on interacting agricultural policies as well as the broader economic policy environment. A key finding was that agricultural transformation succeeded when governments removed the policies and addressed the market failures that disadvantaged the agricultural sector relative to the rest of the economy. We referred to this relative disadvantage as the anti-agricultural bias. To explain how these policies interact and which policies affect different aspects of the overall economy, we developed a policy taxonomy, with a focus on those that affect prices
in agricultural markets (see A Policy Taxonomy for Agricultural Transformation). The policy taxonomy came from an inventory of policies collected from over 250 articles and is derived from the policy framework used in Transforming Agriculture in Africa and Asia: What Are the Policy Priorities?
in agricultural markets (see A Policy Taxonomy for Agricultural Transformation). The policy taxonomy came from an inventory of policies collected from over 250 articles and is derived from the policy framework used in Transforming Agriculture in Africa and Asia: What Are the Policy Priorities?
Food for all in Africa: Sustainable intensification for African farmers
Conway, Gordon; Badiane, Ousmane; Glatzel, Katrin. Ithaca, NY 2019
Conway, Gordon; Badiane, Ousmane; Glatzel, Katrin. Ithaca, NY 2019
A byte at a time: Africa’s progress towards a digital agriculture future
Glatzel, Katrin; Hendriks, Sheryl. 2019
Glatzel, Katrin; Hendriks, Sheryl. 2019
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Over the past two decades, Africa has overcome multiple obstacles to economic growth and eradicating poverty, registering a widespread progress. The gradual transformation of Africa’s food systems has been key to this process, but to sustain and accelerate growth—particularly in the face of demographic changes, urbanization, shifting diets, climate change and protracted humanitarian crises—a new set of innovative solutions is urgently needed.
Chinese investment in Africa: How much do we know?
Brautigam, Deborah; Diao, Xinshen; McMillan, Margaret S.; Silver, Jed. London, UK 2019
Brautigam, Deborah; Diao, Xinshen; McMillan, Margaret S.; Silver, Jed. London, UK 2019
Abstract | Link (37 B)
There is a widespread belief that China plays a fundamental role in African economies, but few rigorous empirical studies to back up this view. Many reports describe China’s engagement with Africa as “neo-imperialism” and “authoritarian capitalism”, exploiting natural resources and local labour while undermining democracy. A growing demand for natural resources in China is also credited with boosting growth across the continent, especially in Africa’s resource-rich countries. In this paper, Brautigam, Diao, McMillan and Silver (2016) present a more balanced and data-driven view on what we know about Chinese investment in Africa and what it means for growth. The authors use official Chinese data to examine the patterns of Chinese engagement in Africa for the period 1998 to 2015. Importantly, these data show large gaps between planned and realised investment. They distinguish between these, and focus only on realised investments. The data indicate that China’s influence in Africa is much smaller than is generally believed, though its engagement on the continent is increasing. Chinese investment in Africa, while less extensive than often assumed, has the potential to generate jobs and development on the continent.
Raising the contribution of research to evidence based policy making in Africa
Badiane, Ousmane. 2019
Badiane, Ousmane. 2019
Is consanguinity an impediment to child development outcomes?
Mete, Cem; Bossavie, Laurent; Giles, John; Alderman, Harold. 2019
Mete, Cem; Bossavie, Laurent; Giles, John; Alderman, Harold. 2019
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Marriages between blood relatives – also known as consanguineous unions – are widespread in North Africa, Central and West Asia and most parts of South Asia. Researchers have suggested that consanguinity has adverse effects on child development, but assessing its impact is not straightforward as the decision to marry a relative might be endogenous to other socio-economic factors. Using a unique dataset collected in rural Pakistan, this paper assesses the extent to which consanguinity is linked to child cognitive ability and nutritional status. As economic benefits of marrying cousins may lead to upward bias to estimates of the effects of consanguinity on child outcomes, prior work likely underestimates the negative impacts of consanguinity on child outcomes. After controlling for current household wealth and parent education, this paper exploits (current and past) grandfather land ownership and maternal grandparent mortality to identify the effect of endogenous consanguinity on child cognitive ability and height-for-age. Children born into consanguineous unions have lower cognitive scores, lower height-for-age, and a higher likelihood of being severely stunted. More importantly, adverse effects are significantly larger after accounting for the endogeneity of consanguineous unions, suggesting that negative impacts on child development are substantial, and likely to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Reducing incentives for consanguineous unions should therefore be of concern among policy makers aiming at improving child development outcomes where marrying cousins is common.
Agricultural transformation and Africa’s economic development
Jayne, Thomas S.; Benfica, Rui; Yeboah, Felix K.; Chamberlin, Jordan. 2019
Jayne, Thomas S.; Benfica, Rui; Yeboah, Felix K.; Chamberlin, Jordan. 2019
The narrative on rural youth and economic opportunities in Africa: facts, myths, and gaps
Mabiso, Athur; Benfica, Rui. 2019
Mabiso, Athur; Benfica, Rui. 2019
Household listing and farm household baseline surveys for the food security and agribusiness support (FAS) activity and improving maternal and child health nutrition services (IMCHN) activity
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2019
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2019
Abstract | Link (37 B)
This baseline report is part of a project funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to evaluate the Feed the Future Egypt, Food-Security and Agribusiness Support (FAS) and the Improving Maternal and Child Health and Nutrition Services (IMCHN) projects. The evaluations of FAS and IMCHN are conducted in two main phases: (1) the baseline study, and (2) the evaluation study. This report presents the results of the baseline study. For the baseline study, IFPRI in collaboration with El-Zanaty and Associates conducted a household listing survey from March 29th to April 2nd, 2018 followed by a farm household baseline survey from April 9th to May 8th, 2018 in six Upper Egypt governorates (Assiut, Beni Suef, Luxor, Menya, Qena, and Sohag). A total of 40 enumerators, 10 technicians (for the collection of anthropometry data within the Farm Household Survey) and 10 supervisors were involved in the data collection. Data for both surveys was collected using Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI) technology. This baseline report summarizes the findings of both surveys. The results of the listing survey analysis serve to inform USAID about farm households’ project participation and treatment by FAS and IMCHN, in addition to establishing the sampling frame for the baseline study. The results of the farm household baseline survey analysis determine the baseline indicator values against which FAS and IMCHN will be evaluated in Phase 2. In addition, the analysis of the farm household baseline survey provides new evidence that can help to improve policy and program design and implementation to better leveraging agriculture-health-nutrition linkages in Upper Egypt.
Fiscal outcomes in Bahrain: Oil price volatility, fiscal institutions or politics?
El-Enbaby, Hoda; Selim, Hoda. Giza, Egypt 2018
El-Enbaby, Hoda; Selim, Hoda. Giza, Egypt 2018
Abstract | Link
The paper argues that political economy factors, rather than oil wealth, shape the budgetary process and outcomes in Bahrain. Fiscal volatility and excessive current spending (in the form of wages, social welfare and subsidies) leading to unsustainable non-oil deficits are not fully derived from oil price volatility. Weak institutions including those underlying the budgetary process contributed to some fiscal laxity. They have allowed rulers to use current spending as a channel for the redistribution of oil rents and to secure political stability and allegiance to the regime in a turbulent socio-political environment. The budgetary process is undermined by the structure of the bicameral parliament and the absence of restrictions on the parliament to amend the budget weaken the position of the executive. In the general context of limited transparency and accountability, the government may also be exercising its discretionary powers over the budget execution but it would not be known.
A tale of two MENAs
Abdelaziz, Fatma; Breisinger, Clemens. 2018
Abdelaziz, Fatma; Breisinger, Clemens. 2018
Abstract | Link
While conflict hinders growth in One MENA, GDP growth in the Other MENA is depressed by the effect of neighbouring conflicts and fluctuating oil prices. Thus economic growth rates are too low to cause a swift reduction in youth unemployment. A breakthrough could occur if MENA countries not affected by conflict achieved pursued reforms and achieved significant increments in GDP. Other MENA countries should implement structural reforms that attract FDI and that encourage export-led growth that can boost employment prospects for both locals and refugees. The international community should increase its support to Other MENA countries, including those that are hosting refugees.
A moral economy of water: Charity wells in Egypt's Nile delta
ElDidi, Hagar; Corbera, Esteve. 2017
ElDidi, Hagar; Corbera, Esteve. 2017
DOI : 10.1111/dech.12286
Spice price spikes: Simulating impacts of saffron price volatility in gendered local economy-wide model
Filipski, Mateusz J.; Aboudrare, Abdellah; Lybbert, Travis J.; Taylor, J. Edward. 2017
Filipski, Mateusz J.; Aboudrare, Abdellah; Lybbert, Travis J.; Taylor, J. Edward. 2017
DOI : 10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.10.018
The 1.5 billion people question: Food, vouchers, or cash transfers?
Alderman, Harold, ed.; Gentilini, Ugo,ed.; Yemtsov, Ruslan, ed.. Washington, D.C. 2017
Alderman, Harold, ed.; Gentilini, Ugo,ed.; Yemtsov, Ruslan, ed.. Washington, D.C. 2017
DOI : 10.1596/978-1-4648-1087-9
Abstract | Link (37 B)
This book addresses the thorny and fascinating question of how food and voucher programs, despite theory and evidence generally favoring cash, remain relevant, have evolved, and, in most circumstances, have improved over time. In doing so, we take an evolutionary and pragmatic view; we are interested in understanding why food-based programs exist and how countries can benefit from transformations such as that of Chhattisgarh, not in determining whether those programs should exist.
Monitoring and evaluation data requirement guide
Azzarri, Carlo; Haile, Beliyou. Ibadan, Nigeria 2017
Azzarri, Carlo; Haile, Beliyou. Ibadan, Nigeria 2017
Abstract | Link (37 B)
Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) are integral parts of project management and play a crucial role in assessing the efficiency and effectiveness of investments in research and development interventions. Inadequate planning and capacity for timely collection, analysis, and dissemination of data are among the challenges usually faced during the M&E of programs, outputs, and outcomes. This document provides a guideline on M&E data requirements for Africa RISING (hereon after AR) to ease some of these challenges. The successful implementation of the guidelines herein requires a strong collaboration and follow up by the M&E team, AR researchers, chief scientists, and program managers as summarized in Table 1 below. The rest of the guide is organized as follows. Section 1 outlines data needs regarding different types of program beneficiaries and sustainable intensification (SI) innovations. Section 2 discusses Feed the Future indicators data requirements. Notes about the indicators of SI developed by Michigan State University researchers as part of the SI Indicators Framework (SIIF) are in Section 3. Section 4 discusses some guidelines for agronomic and socioeconomic data collection.
Effects of the 2008 flood on economic performance and food security in Yemen
Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Thiele, Rainer; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2016
Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Thiele, Rainer; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2016
DOI : 10.1111/disa.12147
The GCC countries RE-readiness: Strengths and gaps for development of renewable energy technologies
Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam; Hawila, Diala; Kennedy, Scott; Mezher, Toufic. 2016
Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam; Hawila, Diala; Kennedy, Scott; Mezher, Toufic. 2016
DOI : 10.1016/j.rser.2015.10.098
Climate change and economic growth: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis for Egypt
Elshennawy, Abeer; Robinson, Sherman; Willenbockel, Dirk. 2016
Elshennawy, Abeer; Robinson, Sherman; Willenbockel, Dirk. 2016
DOI : 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.10.008
Gender and employment impacts of taxation policy in Middle East and North Africa
Fofana, Ismaël; Chatti, Rim; Corong, Erwin; Bibi, Sami; Bouazouni, Omar. London, U.K. 2016
Fofana, Ismaël; Chatti, Rim; Corong, Erwin; Bibi, Sami; Bouazouni, Omar. London, U.K. 2016
DOI : 10.1142/9781783267347_0017
The role of agriculture for economic development and gender in Iraq
Al-Haboby, Azhr; Breisinger, Clemens; Debowicz, Dario; El-Hakim, Abdul Hussein; Ferguson, Jenna; Telleria, Roberto; van Rheenen, Teunis. 2016
Al-Haboby, Azhr; Breisinger, Clemens; Debowicz, Dario; El-Hakim, Abdul Hussein; Ferguson, Jenna; Telleria, Roberto; van Rheenen, Teunis. 2016
DOI : 10.1353/jda.2016.0094
Can MENA reach the sustainable development goals? An overview of opportunities and challenges for food and nutrition security
Khouri, Nadim; Breisinger, Clemens; ElDidi, Hagar. Cham, Switzerland 2016
Khouri, Nadim; Breisinger, Clemens; ElDidi, Hagar. Cham, Switzerland 2016
DOI : 10.1007/978-3-319-40790-6_10
Rural Development Report 2016
International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). Rome, Italy 2016
International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). Rome, Italy 2016
Returns to investment in reducing postharvest food losses and increasing agricultural productivity growth
Rosegrant, Mark W.; Magalhaes, Eduardo; Valmonte-Santos, Rowena; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel. Lowell, MA, USA 2015
Rosegrant, Mark W.; Magalhaes, Eduardo; Valmonte-Santos, Rowena; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel. Lowell, MA, USA 2015
Harnessing the sun and wind for economic development?
Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Blohmke, Julian; Breisinger, Clemens; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2015
Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Blohmke, Julian; Breisinger, Clemens; Wiebelt, Manfred. 2015
DOI : 10.3390/su7067714
Who bears the costs of climate change? Evidence from Tunisia
Wiebelt, Manfred; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Breisinger, Clemens; Robertson, Richard D.. 2015
Wiebelt, Manfred; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Breisinger, Clemens; Robertson, Richard D.. 2015
DOI : 10.1353/jda.2015.0002
Costing alternative transfer modalities
Margolies, Amy; Hoddinott, John F.. 2015
Margolies, Amy; Hoddinott, John F.. 2015
DOI : 10.1080/19439342.2014.984745
Simulating economic growth effects on food and nutrition security in Yemen
Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier. 2014
Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier. 2014
DOI : 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.07.029
Positioning nutrition as central for a food secure Arab world
Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Perrihan, Al-Riffai. Berlin, Germany 2014
Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Perrihan, Al-Riffai. Berlin, Germany 2014
Harnessing the sun and wind for economic development? An economy-wide assessment for Egypt
Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Blohmke, Julian; Breisinger, Clemens; Wiebelt, Manfred. Cairo, Egypt 2014
Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Blohmke, Julian; Breisinger, Clemens; Wiebelt, Manfred. Cairo, Egypt 2014
A rapid initial assessment of the distribution and consumption of iron-folic acid tablets through antenatal care in Honduras
Fiedler, John L.; D'Agostino, Alexis; Sununtnasuk, Celeste. Arlington, VA 2014
Fiedler, John L.; D'Agostino, Alexis; Sununtnasuk, Celeste. Arlington, VA 2014
Who bears the costs of climate change? Evidence from Tunisia
Wiebelt, Manfred; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Breisinger, Clemens; Robertson, Richard D.. Kiel, Germany 2014
Wiebelt, Manfred; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Breisinger, Clemens; Robertson, Richard D.. Kiel, Germany 2014
Economic impacts of climate change in Syria
Breisinger, Clemens; Zhu, Tingju; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Nelson, Gerald C.; Robertson, Richard D.; Funes, José; Verner, Dorte. 2013
Breisinger, Clemens; Zhu, Tingju; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Nelson, Gerald C.; Robertson, Richard D.; Funes, José; Verner, Dorte. 2013
DOI : 10.1142/S2010007813500024
Le Maghreb face aux nouveaux enjeux mondiaux
Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Yu, Bingxin. Paris Cedex, France 2013
Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Yu, Bingxin. Paris Cedex, France 2013
Economics of climate change in the Arab world
Verner, Dorte; Breisinger, Clemens. Washington, D.C. 2013
Verner, Dorte; Breisinger, Clemens. Washington, D.C. 2013
DOI : 10.1596/978-0-8213-9846-3
Modeling suite
Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Nelson, Gerald C.; Wiebelt, Manfred; Zhu, Tingju. Washington, D.C. 2013
Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Nelson, Gerald C.; Wiebelt, Manfred; Zhu, Tingju. Washington, D.C. 2013
Economic impacts of climate change
Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Funes, José; Nelson, Gerald C.; Robertson, Richard D.; Thiele, Rainer; Verner, Dorte; Wiebelt, Manfred; Zhu, Tingju. Washington, D.C. 2013
Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Funes, José; Nelson, Gerald C.; Robertson, Richard D.; Thiele, Rainer; Verner, Dorte; Wiebelt, Manfred; Zhu, Tingju. Washington, D.C. 2013
Economic impacts of droughts in the Syrian Arab Republic and floods in the Republic of Yemen
Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Thiele, Rainer; Verner, Dorte; Wiebelt, Manfred; Zhu, Tingju. Washington, D.C. 2013
Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Thiele, Rainer; Verner, Dorte; Wiebelt, Manfred; Zhu, Tingju. Washington, D.C. 2013
Conclusions and proposed actions for adaptation
Verner, Dorte; Breisinger, Clemens. Washington, D.C. 2013
Verner, Dorte; Breisinger, Clemens. Washington, D.C. 2013
Food security in Yemen
Ecker, Olivier; Breisinger, Clemens; McCool, Christen; Diao, Xinshen; Funes, José; You, Liangzhi; Yu, Bingxin. Hauppauge, NY, USA 2013
Ecker, Olivier; Breisinger, Clemens; McCool, Christen; Diao, Xinshen; Funes, José; You, Liangzhi; Yu, Bingxin. Hauppauge, NY, USA 2013
Economic impacts of climate change in the Arab world
Breisinger, Clemens; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Wiebelt, Manfred. Netherlands 2013
Breisinger, Clemens; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Wiebelt, Manfred. Netherlands 2013
DOI : 10.1007/978-94-007-6751-5_19
Compounding food and income insecurity in Yemen
Wiebelt, Manfred; Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Robertson, Richard D.; Thiele, Rainer. 2013
Wiebelt, Manfred; Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Robertson, Richard D.; Thiele, Rainer. 2013
DOI : 10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.08.009
Stuck on stubble? The non-market value of agricultural byproducts for diversified farmers in Morocco
Magnan, Nicholas; Larson, Douglas M.; Taylor, J. Edward. 2012
Magnan, Nicholas; Larson, Douglas M.; Taylor, J. Edward. 2012
DOI : 10.1093/ajae/aas057
Positioning nutrition as central for a food secure Arab world
Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Nene, Marc; Al-Riffai, Perrihan. Washington D.C. 2012
Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Nene, Marc; Al-Riffai, Perrihan. Washington D.C. 2012
The impact of the 2008 Hadramout flash flood in Yemen on economic performance and nutrition
Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Thiele, Rainer; Wiebelt, Manfred. Kiel, Germany 2012
Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Thiele, Rainer; Wiebelt, Manfred. Kiel, Germany 2012
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